Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SARAJEVO1437
2007-06-28 13:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Sarajevo
Cable title:  

BOSNIA: COVIC ON CROAT POLITICS

Tags:  PGOV PREL BK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8327
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHVJ #1437/01 1791301
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 281301Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6536
INFO RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 0405
RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN PRIORITY 0099
RUEHVB/AMEMBASSY ZAGREB PRIORITY 0380
RUFOAOA/USNIC SARAJEVO PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001437 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE
(HOH/FOOKS/STINCHCOMB),ZAGREB FOR AMBASSADOR BRADTKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: COVIC ON CROAT POLITICS

Classified By: Ambassador Douglas L. McElhaney for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001437

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE
(HOH/FOOKS/STINCHCOMB),ZAGREB FOR AMBASSADOR BRADTKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: COVIC ON CROAT POLITICS

Classified By: Ambassador Douglas L. McElhaney for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) President
Dragan Covic recently discussed Croat party politics and the
chances for a renewed round of talks on constitutional
reform. Covic highlighted that recent rumors of a merger
between HDZ and the breakaway HDZ-1990 were unfounded because
of entrenched differences at the local level. He also shared
insight about Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's comments
"expressing regret over his role in splitting HDZ-BiH and
involving the Catholic Church in Croat politics."
Anticipating an increase in HDZ strength and membership,
Covic indicated his desire to work with Party for Democratic
Action President (SDA) Sulejman Tihic and Republika Srpska
(RS) Prime Minister Milorad Dodik in the coming weeks to
return to the U.S.-brokered April package of constitutional
amendments. End Summary.

Croat Party Politics - Chances for an HDZ Merger Waning
-------------- --------------


2. (C) June 14, the Ambassador met with HDZ President Dragan
Covic for the first time since Covic was reelected Party
President in May. (Note: Covic was recently released from
prison pending an appeal of his conviction on charges of
embezzlement in his prior term as party president. End Note)
Covic said that Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's recent
initiative to reunify Covic's HDZ with the breakaway
HDZ-1990 led by Bozo Ljubic was likely to fail. According to
Covic, Sanader took a calculated risk last year in the run-up
to Bosnian October elections when he encouraged the defection
of HDZ-1990. According to Covic, Sanader was convinced that
Croats would vote in large numbers and that HDZ would carry
at least five to six seats in Bosnian State Parliament. The
unintended result of the divided Croat vote was that Social
DemocraticParty (SDP) candidate Zeljko Komsic was elected to
the Croat seat on the Tri-Presidency instead of an HDZ
candidate. Covic claimed that Sanader openly admitted to him
that he regrets his role in splitting the party and now wants

to bring the two HDZs together to consolidate the Croat
position in Bosnia.


3. (C) Covic said Sanader believes he can influence Bozo
Ljubic to agree to a merger, but Covic says that this
influence will not permeate Cantonal politics where divisions
between HDZ and HDZ-1990 are deeply entrenched - even more so
now than in the past. Covic says divisions between the two
HDZs actually only exist at the Cantonal level, but are
personality based and so strong that Croats cannot agree on
anything. According to Covic, the parties have no true
policy differences. HDZ-1990 needed an issue to distinguish
the party and chose constitutional reform for this purpose.
Covic asserted that Ljubic's opinions on constitutional
reform actually mirror his own. Yet, he pointed out that
Ljubic must now insist on highlighting differences to
maintain his party's existence. For this reason, Covic does
not believe a merger is possible at this time, or in the near
future.

The Future of the Two HDZs
--------------


4. (C) Hypothesizing about the future of both parties, Covic
lamented that HDZ had lost much of its influence as a
political movement and its identity as the monolithic Croats'
party. He said that over the last ten years HDZ defectors
had started more than ten other Croat parties, but that none
had been able to withstand the test of time. He said that
expelling war profiteers and others from the party only made
HDZ stronger, even though losing Ljubic and Martin Ragusz to
HDZ-1990 had not been beneficial. Still, he expects that
HDZ-1990 will go the way of other Croat breakaway parties and
disappear over the next two to three years. Covic hoped that
HDZ will gain momentum in the future noting that almost 4000
individuals had recently paid membership fees to join the
party and he anticipated that HDZ would double its membership
in the next few months.

The Influence of the Church on Croat Politics
--------------


5. (C) When asked about the Catholic Church's previous
political involvement in constitutional reform, Covic replied
that encouraging the Church to take an active role in Bosnian
politics was Sanader's biggest mistake and that he would
suffer political consequences as a result. Specifically,

SARAJEVO 00001437 002 OF 003


Covic mentioned that Sanader is a religious man and used his
influence to forge strong ties with Bosnian Cardinal Vinko
Puljic and others in the Bosnian Church leadership and that
there was a great deal of money involved in the process.
Covic added that it is always difficult to gauge activities
in the Church but that in addition to the traditional
division between the Franciscan and Dominican orders, there
is now a new division among the Bishops themselves.
According to Covic, Cardinal Puljic is no longer able to
influence even half of his bishops, and the Mostar Bishop,
and Croat nationalist, Ratko Peric is losing his position of
influence. Instead, Sarajevo-based Bishop Pero Sudar is the
rising spokesman for the Bosnian Church's stance on
constitutional reforms and other matters affecting Croats.
(Note: Post has had minimal contact with Sudar in the past
because of his fierce opposition to the Dayton Accords and
USG policy. End Note.)

Croats on Future Constitutional Talks
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador highlighted the importance of having
the Europeans involved in future constitutional reform
discussions. Covic noted that Tihic is truly disappointed
with his recent discussions with the High Representative and
with the negative impact Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina
(SBiH) Presidency Member Haris Silajdzic has made on the
reform process. Covic explained that in recent discussions
with Tihic and Social Democratic Party (SDP) President Zlatko
Lagumdzija, both had indicated their hesitation to confront
Silajdzic at this time. According to Covic, they feel
Silajdzic's influence on Bosniaks is currently too strong and
that challenging him directly at this stage would be a
political mistake. He added that they anticipate his
influence will diminish over the coming months and that the
fall might be a good time to renew discussions on reform.
Covic says that the most important component to successful
talks is bringing all parties to the table, and that he hoped
he might have a meeting with both Tihic and Dodik next week
in Banja Luka to discuss how to move forward while
maintaining the April package to the extent possible.


7. (C) Covic indicated that he had sent his own plan for
constitutional reforms to the High Representative outlining
ten specifics goals to be met within a 12-month period.
Covic said he still felt his timeline was realistic for
completed reforms, but that it was integral that all parties
agree to move forward from compromises already made last
April. He added that it was extremely important to include
Lagumdzija in reform discussions because SDP opposition would
be detrimental to the process. Covic mentioned that he had
met with Ljubic earlier in the day and claimed they had both
agreed to bring all Croat parties together to discuss a
unified stance on constitutional reform.

Srebrenica
--------------


8. (C) Asked about Srebrenica, Covic stated his party's
support for measures to improve the economic and social
conditions in Srebrenica on economic and social issues. He
said, however, that HDZ would not support any special status
for the municipality removing it from the Republika Srpksa.
Instead, he stated his hope that Srebrenica concerns could be
resolved through constitutional reforms, and commented that
Silajdzic's manipulation of Srebrenica to stoke Bosniak
nationalism was having a parallel effect on radical Croats.
Covic warned that he believes Silajdzic is truly on the wrong
path, and shared Lagumdzija's theory that Silajdzic's endgame
is a division of the country and the creation of a small
Islamic state. He asserted that Silajdzic's current actions
in Srebrenica are an attempt to increase the boundaries of
that future territory.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Comment: Covic is usually quite tight-lipped, so
this was quite an exception. There is, however, an element
of wishful thinking to much of Covic's analysis of
developments in Bosnian Croat politics. It is true that
Covic's political rivals Bozo Ljubic and Martin Ragusz are
essentially a one-note opposition whose relevance in national
politics has decreased since the failure of the April package
of constitutional reforms. However, the ongoing standoff
between HDZ and HDZ-1990 over government formation in
Herzegovina Neretva Canton is illustrative that the split

SARAJEVO 00001437 003 OF 003


mirrors deep divisions largely based on personal and economic
interests, rather than political ones. End Comment.
MCELHANEY