GUIDANCE REQUEST - BOSNIA'S MULTINATIONAL FORCE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 000136

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE (HOH,
SAINZ, FOOKS),AND EUR/RPM (BROTZEN),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC
FOR WIGHTMAN, OSD FOR MARK JONES, USNATO FOR SHAFFER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR BK
SUBJECT: GUIDANCE REQUEST - BOSNIA'S MULTINATIONAL FORCE IN
IRAQ CONTRIBUTION

REF: A. A) SARAJEVO 84


B. B) 06 SARAJEVO 2908

C. C) 06 SARAJEVO 3159

D. D) SARAJEVO 60

Classified By: Ambassador Douglas McElhaney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) This is an action request, please see paragraph 7.

SUMMARY
--------------


2. (C) Following our initial presentation of the President's
Iraq strategy last week (Ref A),the Ambassador met with the
all three members of Bosnia's Tri-Presidency to discuss the
deployment in Iraq of Bosnia's Explosive Ordinance Disposal
(EOD) platoon. These exchanges reinforce previous
assessments (Ref B) that the political climate in Bosnia is
hardening against further Bosnian participation in Operation
Iraqi Freedom (OIF). Earlier in the month, outgoing Bosnian
Minister of Defense Radmanovic received a letter from MNFI
Commander, General Casey, requesting deployment of a fifth
rotation with the addition of a 12-15 member force protection
unit. The Ministry of Defense (MoD) has expressed concern
that the addition of security personnel would require
parliamentary approval and both Presidency and MoD officials
have warned this would be a hard sell. Post judges that
parliamentary opposition to an expanded deployment is likely.
All three members of the Tri-Presidency told the Ambassador
that they would approve a fifth EOD rotation without
additional security personnel, although Haris Silajdzic's
endorsement was more equivocal than the others. Presidency
and MoD officials have interpreted the MFI letter as a
military-to-military communication rather than a formal
bilateral request and seek "clarification" of the operative
USG request. Our recommendation is that we hold off on this
request for now, lest we place the entire deployment in
jeopardy. Post requests instructions detailing USG
requirements for the next Bosnian deployment to OIF. End
summary.


EXPANDED DEPLOYMENT REQUEST
--------------


3. (C) The Ministry of Defense (MoD) recently brought to our
attention a letter from MNFI requesting that Bosnia
supplement the next rotation of its Explosive Ordinance
Disposal (EOD) platoon, scheduled to deploy to Iraq in May,
with a 12-15 member force protection unit. Senior uniformed
leadership, including Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Sifet Podzic,
have told us that the Bosnian Armed Forces could logistically
meet this request. However, MoD civilian leadership has
raised concerns that, given the nationalistic drift of
Bosniak politics, (Ref B) political opposition to Bosnia's
Iraq mission would be exacerbated by a request to deploy
additional security personnel. They added that, in this
context, a request for an expanded deployment could throw the
new rotation, and possibly the current one, into doubt.
Ministry officials also stated that the defense budget could
not support the cost of additional deployed personnel.
Ministry officials have also echoed Defense Minister
Radovanovic's December assertion to the Ambassador that the
EOD unit in Iraq is under used (Ref C). Both the minister and
his key deputies have repeatedly suggested transitioning the
EOD deployment from Iraq to Afghanistan.


SILAJDZIC WILL BE A PROBLEM
--------------


4. (C) Ambassador met separately with all three members of
the Bosnian Tri-Presidency to urge their support for a new
rotation and discuss the MNFI request for an augmented
deployment. Bosnian Serb Presidency Chairman Nebojsha
Radmanovic stated he was not opposed, in principle, to an
augmented deployment. However, he added that an enhanced
deployment would face political opposition in other parts of
the government with Bosniak Presidency member Haris Silajdzic
being the chief obstacle. Radmanovic did not undertake to

advocate for the enhanced deployment with other Presidency
members. Bosnian-Croat President Zelko Komsic told the
Ambassador that an augmented deployment was possible but only
if was made clear that the additional forces would be
responsible only for protecting Bosnian soldiers. Haris
Silajdzic refused to state whether he would support sending
additional security personnel, noting his initial opposition
to the war in Iraq. Silajdzic said only that an expanded
deployment could be the subject of future "exchanges." When
pressed, Silajdzic conceded that he would support a
continuation of the current EOD mission without the security
personnel. (Comment. Silajdzic left little room for doubt
that he would be a serious obstacle to the deployment of
additional security personnel. End comment.)


PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION
--------------


5. (C) Parliamentary approval will be required if the
composition of the Iraq mission is altered. As part of its
2004 decision conferring discretion over the EOD deployments
to the Presidency, Parliament specified the size and
composition of the unit. Under this authority, the
Presidency has approved four successive EOD rotations and may
continue to do so for a fifth if there are no changes in its
composition. Parliament has made clear, however, that it
must review any changes to military deployments to Iraq. A
parliamentary review of an expanded deployment would likely
lead to a lengthy and divisive debate with nationalist
members of the Bosniak caucus questioning the merits of the
deployments in general. Serb deputies radicalized by the
Kosovo final status process could also engage in
grandstanding by taking public shots at the Iraq mission.
There could also be further complications, if, as expected,
the MOD remains without a new minister until April or MayQ(Ref D).


COMMENT: TAKING ACCOUNT OF CLIMATE, LIMITATIONS
-------------- --


6. (C) Comment. Bosnia's continued deployments to MNFI is
one of post's highest priorities. Not only do Bosnian forces
play a valuable role in coalition support activities, their
engagement in such missions increases their inter-operability
and ability to deploy in future operations. Continued
engagement in coalition operations has also been instrumental
in supporting the defense reform agenda, a cornerstone of the
USG objective of building a sovereign, united Bosnia firmly
anchored to the Euro-Atlantic community. However, there are
substantial political and legal impediments to supplementing
a new EOD rotation with a force protection unit. Given
varying degrees of opposition within the Presidency, and
hostility in Parliament. Our recommendation is that we not
push immediately for the protection unit lest we place in
danger the current Bosnian contingent. We as should revisit
this issue in several months to determine whether the
political climate is more propitious for making the proposal.
End comment.


7. (C) Action request. Post requests instructions outlining
USG requirements for the next Bosnian deployment to OIF. End
action request.
MCELHANEY