Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SANTODOMINGO846
2007-04-13 20:37:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Santo Domingo
Cable title:
DOMINICAN POLITICS III #23: PARTY UNITY UNDER
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UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 000846
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR/IAA; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD;
TREASURY FOR OASIA-JLEVINE; DEPT PASS USDA FOR FAS; USDOC
FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR
3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS III #23: PARTY UNITY UNDER
STRESS AS PLD PREPARES FOR PRIMARY VOTE
UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 000846
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR/IAA; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD;
TREASURY FOR OASIA-JLEVINE; DEPT PASS USDA FOR FAS; USDOC
FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR
3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS III #23: PARTY UNITY UNDER
STRESS AS PLD PREPARES FOR PRIMARY VOTE
1. (U) This is the 23rd cable in our series on Dominican
politics in the third year of the administration of President
Leonel Fernandez.
PARTY UNITY UNDER STRESS AS PLD PREPARES FOR PRIMARY VOTE
(SBU) On April 11 POLOFF met with Danilo Diaz of the ruling
Dominican Liberation Party (PLD). As one of six members of
the PLD's National Electoral Commission, Diaz is organizing
the party's presidential primary between incumbent President
Leonel Fernandez and organizational czar and former
presidential chief of staff Danilo Medina. A third candidate,
former Senator from Santo Domingo Jose Tomas Perez, is
polling badly.
(SBU) The balloting will be held nation-wide on May 6 at some
2,000 voting stations in a process supervised by the
government's National Elections Board (JCE). All members of
the PLD are eligible to vote, some 1,159,000 in total, and
Diaz expects a turnout on the order of 75 percent. According
to an early March poll taken by the reliable firm CID
Latinoamerica, Fernandez leads Medina by 16 points (44 to 28
percent). Of the remaining 28 percent, almost all are
undecided.
(SBU) Diaz described the primary election as a "great
challenge" for the PLD. He noted that Medina, who resigned
from his post of Fernandez's chief of staff in December, has
worked closely with the President for many years. Diaz said
that with Fernandez and Medina long having been seen as
members of the same team, it has been a very unnatural
process for party leaders to chose sides for the primary
race.
(SBU) When asked about the primary's long-term impact on the
PLD, Diaz said that -- beyond the obvious need for a clean
vote respected by all -- much will depend on the winner's
margin of victory. If the margin is large, reconciliation
after the election will be easier. Diaz is also concerned
that supporters of the winner will gloat, sowing the seeds of
future discord.
(SBU) Queried about past primary elections, Diaz recalled
fondly the last occasion that the PLD faced a genuinely
contested presidential primary -- Medina's 1999 victory over
Jaime David Fernandez Mirabal. Medina lost the 2000
presidential election, placing a poor third to Hipolito Mejia
and the blind, tottering Joaquin Balaguer. Diaz said that
within a day of his defeat, Fernandez Mirabal had made a show
unity by appearing in public with Medina and raising the
victor's arm.
(SBU) COMMENT: The PLD already held the presidency when it
swept both houses in the 2006 congressional elections. Given
the weak state of the opposition, we are not surprised that
the ruling party is now experiencing some factionalization.
This is a new experience for the PLD, and it is clearly an
uncomfortable one. Fernandez and Medina have a long history
of working together, which goes back to the struggle against
the autocratic rule of Balaguer in the early 1990s. As for
Diaz, he knows that a clean, well-run primary is key to a
successful post-vote reconciliation effort, and he is feeling
the pressure.
-- Drafted by Peter Hemsch
2. (U) This report and extensive other material can be
consulted on our SIPRNET site,
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/
HERTELL
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR/IAA; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD;
TREASURY FOR OASIA-JLEVINE; DEPT PASS USDA FOR FAS; USDOC
FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR
3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS III #23: PARTY UNITY UNDER
STRESS AS PLD PREPARES FOR PRIMARY VOTE
1. (U) This is the 23rd cable in our series on Dominican
politics in the third year of the administration of President
Leonel Fernandez.
PARTY UNITY UNDER STRESS AS PLD PREPARES FOR PRIMARY VOTE
(SBU) On April 11 POLOFF met with Danilo Diaz of the ruling
Dominican Liberation Party (PLD). As one of six members of
the PLD's National Electoral Commission, Diaz is organizing
the party's presidential primary between incumbent President
Leonel Fernandez and organizational czar and former
presidential chief of staff Danilo Medina. A third candidate,
former Senator from Santo Domingo Jose Tomas Perez, is
polling badly.
(SBU) The balloting will be held nation-wide on May 6 at some
2,000 voting stations in a process supervised by the
government's National Elections Board (JCE). All members of
the PLD are eligible to vote, some 1,159,000 in total, and
Diaz expects a turnout on the order of 75 percent. According
to an early March poll taken by the reliable firm CID
Latinoamerica, Fernandez leads Medina by 16 points (44 to 28
percent). Of the remaining 28 percent, almost all are
undecided.
(SBU) Diaz described the primary election as a "great
challenge" for the PLD. He noted that Medina, who resigned
from his post of Fernandez's chief of staff in December, has
worked closely with the President for many years. Diaz said
that with Fernandez and Medina long having been seen as
members of the same team, it has been a very unnatural
process for party leaders to chose sides for the primary
race.
(SBU) When asked about the primary's long-term impact on the
PLD, Diaz said that -- beyond the obvious need for a clean
vote respected by all -- much will depend on the winner's
margin of victory. If the margin is large, reconciliation
after the election will be easier. Diaz is also concerned
that supporters of the winner will gloat, sowing the seeds of
future discord.
(SBU) Queried about past primary elections, Diaz recalled
fondly the last occasion that the PLD faced a genuinely
contested presidential primary -- Medina's 1999 victory over
Jaime David Fernandez Mirabal. Medina lost the 2000
presidential election, placing a poor third to Hipolito Mejia
and the blind, tottering Joaquin Balaguer. Diaz said that
within a day of his defeat, Fernandez Mirabal had made a show
unity by appearing in public with Medina and raising the
victor's arm.
(SBU) COMMENT: The PLD already held the presidency when it
swept both houses in the 2006 congressional elections. Given
the weak state of the opposition, we are not surprised that
the ruling party is now experiencing some factionalization.
This is a new experience for the PLD, and it is clearly an
uncomfortable one. Fernandez and Medina have a long history
of working together, which goes back to the struggle against
the autocratic rule of Balaguer in the early 1990s. As for
Diaz, he knows that a clean, well-run primary is key to a
successful post-vote reconciliation effort, and he is feeling
the pressure.
-- Drafted by Peter Hemsch
2. (U) This report and extensive other material can be
consulted on our SIPRNET site,
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/
HERTELL