ZABLAH BOWS OUT OF SALVADORAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 002423

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES
SUBJECT: ZABLAH BOWS OUT OF SALVADORAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE

REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 1943

B. SAN SALVADOR 2169

C. SAN SALVADOR 2406

Classified By: Ambassador Charles L. Glazer, Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (U) Summary: On Saturday, Arturo Zablah ended his
pre-candidacy for the Salvadoran Presidency. The centrist
politician had hoped, through his Alliance for Change
platform, to mount a strong third-party challenge to ARENA
and the FMLN, but his candidacy was unable to pick up
sufficient momentum. Though out of the Presidential race,
Zablah could still end up playing a role in the campaign or
the next government. End Summary.


2. (U) At a press conference December 14, three months after
launching his campaign and movement to create a new centrist
political movement in Salvadoran politics, Arturo Zablah
abandoned his bid for El Salvador's Presidency. Zablah, a
prominent businessman and former ARENA Minister of Economy
under President Calderon Sol told the press he had failed in
building the strong political alliance needed for a viable
bid.


3. (U) FMLN leadership, which earlier this year rebuffed
Zablah's overtures to head its presidential ticket, has not
commented publicly on Zablah's exit. President Saca, for his
part, was quoted in press reports saying that Zablah has
"many friends in ARENA" and that "the doors to the party are
always open." Zablah has stated that he will not "play the
polarization game" by supporting another candidate in the
Presidential race.


4. (C) Two days prior to his announcement, Polcouns spoke
with Zablah, and at the time Zablah said he was 85 percent
sure he would end his pre-candidacy at some point over the
weekend. Zablah said that he felt that the level of support
available for a third candidate (aside from ARENA and FMLN)
was diminishing. Political polarization, he said, was
increasing and consuming all the oxygen, leaving nothing for
a centrist alternative.


5. (U) Comment: From the beginning, Zablah has told us that
he would only continue a viable campaign. His inability to
ultimately bring the PDC into a joint campaign with the FDR
and CD no doubt let much of the air out of his campaign's
sails. While the Salvadoran political landscape is extremely
polarized and the Zablah camp was unable to carve out
significant support at the political center, the causal
relationship is less clear than Zablah might claim. The FMLN
ticket headed by Mauricio Funes has made a clear and
conscious effort to run a moderate campaign with appeal far
beyond its traditional base. Absent a declared ARENA
candidate, Funes has been successful in portraying himself as
a center-left alternative to an ARENA president. The early
FMLN success combined with Zablah's failure to gain the
backing of a strong political machine, surely figured
strongly in Zablah's decision-making calculus. End Comment.

Glazer