(C) ARTURO ZABLAH LIKELY TO RUN; WAITING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 002169

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ES
SUBJECT: (C) ARTURO ZABLAH LIKELY TO RUN; WAITING TO
FINALIZE COALITION

REF: SAN SALVADOR 1943

Classified By: Michael A. Butler, Charge, for reason 1.4 (d).


1. (C) Summary: Arturo Zablah told us October 24 he would
know by the end of the month which parties (FDR, PDC, and CD)
would support his presidential campaign in coalition, at
which point he would make a decision and announce his
candidacy. At this point, Zablah believes only CD's support
is still in question, and he suggested he would probably run
with or without their support. End Summary.


2. (C) PolCouns spoke October 24 with Arturo Zablah, probable
presidential candidate for a coalition led by the FDR and
other small, centrist parties. Since we last spoke September
18, Zablah and a small group of advisors have been visiting
towns and cities around El Salvador to gauge support for a
possible candidacy, based on the plan he announced in
September (Reftel). He said two primary reasons for
believing his could be a viable candidacy were that almost 20
years of ARENA government had left a "bad taste" in many
Salvadorans' mouths and that no amount of "makeup" would
disguise FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes' left-wing orientation
or the true intentions of the hard core of the FMLN. Zablah
cited recent polling data from Costa Rican firm Borges
suggesting some 60 percent of Salvadorans described
themselves as centrists (not counting those who did not
respond or did know know). Over 80 percent said they would
not vote for a party that would endanger relations with the
U.S., and over 70 percent said they believed election of the
FMLN would damage U.S.-Salvadoran relations.


3. (C) Zablah told us that talks with the PDC to form a
coalition with FDR supporting his candidacy are "well
underway" and described them as all but complete. He said
similar discussions with the CD are ongoing, but not as
advanced, as the CD continues to hold out for the VP slot on
the FMLN ticket. (Note: The FMLN has named Salvador Sanchez
Ceren as its VP candidate, running with Mauricio Funes, and
has publicly made clear that this decision is final. Zablah
understands the CD has been told the same privately a number
of times, as well. End note.) Zablah hopes all three
parties (FDR, PDC, and CD) will join in a coalition, since
the three together would provide an ideological balance
across the center of the political spectrum (from Christian
Democrat to centrist socialist) and would provide substantial
structure and party machinery. The three together would also
expect to hold from 15 to 25 seats in El Salvador's 84-seat
Assembly, not a majority, but enough to build coalitions with
other parties (Zablah believes ARENA would be most likely to
cooperate.) Zablah reported the CD has a self-imposed
deadline of the end of October to make a decision on joining
this coalition. Pressed, Zablah said he was leaning towards
running even without CD's support, but would prefer a
three-party coalition.


4. (C) Asked if PDC's support came with conditions,
especially in terms of his running mate, Zablah said no, and
said the PDC's Rodolfo Parker had told him charismatic San
Miguel mayor Will Salgado would seek re-election. (Comment:
Given our recent conversations with Salgado (Septel) and
Salgado's penchant for changing party affiliations, this may
be wishful thinking.) Zablah suggested he was talking with
several possible running mates, and said he was seeking
another outsider like himself, as opposed to someone
currently holding political office.


5. (C) Zablah said that with a party machine, a campaign
platform and strategy ready or being developed, the remaining
challenge was financing -- clean financing. He estimates
that with $10 million he can mount a credible campaign. Of
that, he anticipates half would come from about 100 wealthy
business donors, some $3 million from the funds provided by
the central government to political parties in the form of
campaign financing, and the rest from small donors.


6. (SBU) Zablah plans to travel to the U.S. November 1 to
participate in a conference in Los Angeles and later visit
Washington where he plans to meet with State and USAID
officials, among others. Zablah plans to announce his run
for the Presidency soon after he returns, if his decision is
positive.


7. (C) Comment: Zablah, a former ARENA Minister of Economy,
enjoys a positive reputation among Salvadorans but will face
an uphill battle if he chooses to run. The entrenched party
machinery of the FMLN and ARENA will pose a challenge, as
will voters' fear of throwing away a vote on a doomed
third-party candidate. If, however, his campaign gains
traction and appears poised to force a second round in
presidential voting, Zablah could conceivably force both the
FMLN and ARENA to compete more intensely for the center,
drawing them away from the comfort zone of their hard-core
supporters.
Butler