FORMER JOURNALIST LIKELY TO HEAD FMLN TICKET IN

UNCLAS SAN SALVADOR 001947

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ES PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: FORMER JOURNALIST LIKELY TO HEAD FMLN TICKET IN
2009 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION



1. (U) Local Salvadoran media reports that the FMLN has
announced that journalist Mauricio Funes will head the
party's presidential ticket in the 2009 election. Salvador
Sanchez Ceren, former FMLN General Coordinator and currently
FMLN head of faction in the National Assembly, will be the
party's VP candidate. It is not clear yet if Funes has
formally accepted the FMLN nomination.


2. (SBU) This announcement represents an acceleration of the
timetable Funes outlined to Polcouns on September 19, when he
emphatically declared that he was not yet a candidate. He
expected the nomination process to last until November or
December 2007, though it was clear that he saw himself
becoming the FMLN's candidate. Media reports from September
19 announced that Funes would end his TV program at the end
of the month. Funes told us he felt this was premature, as
he was not yet a candidate, but he agreed it would be
untenable to be both a journalist and candidate. He said he
felt as if the journalist period of his life was coming to a
close and another phase was opening.


3. (SBU) Funes made clear to us that he would not accept the
FMLN's nomination if he would be merely a figurehead
candidate who, if elected, would not enjoy the ability to
lead the GOES. He did not articulate what would convince him
that his conditions were met. Funes said that his campaign
would include a reevaluation of CAFTA-DR and dollarization,
though he made clear that he did not necessarily mean El
Salvador would be leaving that free trade agreement. Funes
said both these issues would be evaluated in terms of El
Salvador's national interests.


4. (SBU) Funes was accompanied by his wife Wanda Pignato, who
initially came to El Salvador as a representative of Brazil's
Workers Party and several years later became cultural attachQ
at the Brazilian Embassy in San Salvador. Funes noted that
during his recent visit to Brazil, her position facilitated
his meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva.


5. (U) Our meeting with Funes was cordial. He stated that
he hoped to have closer contact with the U.S. Embassy and
seemed intent on cultivating future contact with us. He said
that, if he were elected, U.S.-Salvadoran relations would go
forward on the basis of mutual respect, which suggested to us
that he sees the current relationship as a one-sided affair.


6. (SBU) Comment: U.S. relations with a Funes government
would be a far cry from the close relationship we enjoy with
the Saca government, and there can be no doubt that an
FMLN-led government -- whether headed by Funes or not -- will
pursue policies at odds with our interests in El Salvador and
throughout Central America.


7. (SBU) Comment continued: The FMLN's selection of Salvador
Sanchez Ceren as Vice Presidential candidate will be an
interesting test for Funes. A former guerrilla commander,
Sanchez Ceren is considered to be amongst the hardest of
Marxist hard-liners still standing in the FMLN. We find it
difficult to believe that Sanchez Ceren, who went to war in
an effort to establish a revolutionary government in El
Salvador, would actually surrender leadership of the FMLN,
let alone real executive power, to a journalist turned
politico. Moreover, it is unlikely that Funes, at the top of
the ticket, will be able to overcome the clear link to the
FMLN's hard-line, unreconstructed past as represented by
Sanchez Ceren. This nomination suggests to us that the FMLN
is not likely to give Funes the freedom to govern that he
says he will require.
Glazer