EL SALVADOR: EXTENSION OF TPS FOR EL SALVADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000179

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN J. CORNFORTH AND PRM/PIM T. WRIGHT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2017
TAGS: EAID ES HO NU PGOV PHUM PREF PREL SMIG
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: EXTENSION OF TPS FOR EL SALVADOR

REF: STATE 6653

Classified By: Ambassador Charles Glazer, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Temporary Protected Status should be extended again
for the nearly 250,000 Salvadoran beneficiaries living and
working in the United States. El Salvador's ongoing
reconstruction from two devastating earthquakes in 2001 is
incomplete, and a series of moderate local earthquakes during
late December 2006 in Ahuachapan Department have exacerbated
the situation by displacing nearly 2,000 more households.
Current conditions prevent the safe return of Salvadoran
nationals to a country still ill-prepared to absorb them.
TPS remains an important bilateral issue, and the forced
return of such a large group of people would not only have a
severe negative impact on socioeconomic conditions but also
severely damage bilateral relations with a country that is
one of our most important allies in the region.


2. (SBU) The earthquakes of January and February 2001
claimed 1,159 lives, damaged or destroyed 276,000 homes,
destroyed major hospitals and community infrastructure, and
left unserviceable 1,400 miles of roadways. This major
disruption to the economy and social fabric, despite major
reconstruction efforts, has yet to be overcome. Though
USAID's $170 million disaster reconstruction program made
significant improvements to damaged infrastructure,
assistance from many other sources is still being
implemented. The GOES has only recently begun to rebuild two
of the seven hospitals damaged by the earthquakes. Repairing
these hospitals will cost an estimated $100 million, and the
work will not be complete until 2009 at the earliest.


3. (C) To complicate matters, a series of moderate but
localized earthquakes (up to 4.6 on the Richter Scale) hit
the western half of El Salvador during the last week of 2006.
There were a handful of deaths, and given the substandard
housing prevalent in region, nearly 2,000 families were left
homeless. The GOES has been unable to adequately respond to
this latest natural disaster, and the Vice Ministry of
Housing informed affected residents that the government would
make loans to cover at most 35 percent of reconstruction
costs. The other 65 percent would be paid directly by those
affected.


4. (SBU) El Salvador has not recovered from the 2005
eruption of the Santa Ana Volcano, which was immediately
followed by flooding and mud slides caused by Hurricane Stan.
Those disasters resulted in 69 deaths and $355.6 million in
damage to housing and infrastructure. The GOES redirected
local and international funding to address these crises, but
as their response to the 2006 earthquakes shows, resources
are scarce. Moreover, the GOES is redirecting resources to
face the enormous challenge gang violence poses to the
country's stability. The murder rate for El Salvador is the
highest per capita in the Western Hemisphere (58 per 100,000
in 2006) and is arguably one of the highest in the world
outside of an active war zone. Gang violence continues to
have a destabilizing effect on the society as a whole,
damaging the basic social and economic fabric of the country.



5. (SBU) Though the economic situation in El Salvador has
shown modest improvement in 2006, 35 percent of households
nationwide still live in poverty. Poverty in rural areas,
which often bear the brunt of natural disasters, is even
higher, at 42 percent. Underemployment nationwide stands at
32 percent, and apparel manufacturers have cut thousands of
jobs in the past year as increased competition from China
takes its toll despite CAFTA-DR benefits. Remittances, which
in 2006 were $3.3 billion, remain an important source of
income for the nearly 1.7 million people who receive them.
With CAFTA-DR, the recently signed Millennium Challenge
Compact, and other initiatives in support of economic growth,
the USG is helping El Salvador establish the framework for
growth in the long term, but the major benefits of these
agreements, including the connection of the impoverished
northern zones to the rest of the country, remain years away.
At present, there are insufficient economic opportunities to
ensure a secure reintegration of returnees, and social
services are inadequate to attend to them.


6. (SBU) Despite the great strides the GOES has made in just
15 years since the end of the civil conflict to improve the
living conditions of its citizens, some estimate that up to
600 Salvadorans per day leave the country headed for the
United States. Many of them never make it to Mexico, let
alone the United States. However, USG efforts to stem the
flow of migrants and return citizens to their native country
have yet to ebb the tide of Salvadorans emigrating illegally
to the north.


7. (C) From a socioeconomic perspective, the GOES is not
prepared to accept the return of nearly 250,000 nationals
from the United States, in addition to the some 30,000 others
who may face deportation this year. While there remains a
clear statutory rationale for the extension of TPS again this
year, the political importance of this issue cannot be
underestimated. Such a massive deportation would be a
political embarrassment for the GOES in the lead up to 2009
local, legislative, and presidential elections that could
provide a significant boost to the electoral prospects of the
communist-dominated and Chavez-supported FMLN. El Salvador
under ARENA,s leadership has been one of our most important
allies in the Western Hemisphere, during a major rise of
leftist populist regimes unfriendly to USG interests. El
Salvador is currently deploying its eighth contingent of the
Cuscatlan Battalion to Iraq (a deployment the government sees
in part as an expression of gratitude for USG support in
their own civil conflict),but terminating TPS would
dramatically undermine President Saca's ability to support us
on this and many other global and hemispheric issues of
importance. For these reasons, in addition to the
socioeconomic disruption such a massive deportation would
cause, post continues to strongly advocate the extension of
Temporary Protected Status for the Salvadoran nationals who
are beneficiaries. Ending TPS now could have a profound
negative impact on our bilateral relationship.
Glazer