EL SALVADOR: SALGADO'S EXPULSION FROM THE PCN AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001248

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2017
TAGS: ES PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: SALGADO'S EXPULSION FROM THE PCN AND
2009

REF: A. 2006 SAN SALVADOR 2873


B. SAN SALVADOR 360

Classified By: Ambassador Charles L. Glazer, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Following his expulsion from the National
Conciliation Party (PCN),populist San Miguel Mayor Will
Salgado is considering whether he will seek to rejoin the
Christian Democratic Party (PDC) under whose banner he first
sought office, or instead move to the relatively new splinter
group of former FMLN moderates, the Revolutionary Democratic
Front (FDR). Salgado's departure from ARENA's center-right
PCN allies likely cheers the ruling party, heretofore leery
of Salgado's effect as a PCN candidate on the conservative
vote. Although a Salgado candidacy outside of El Salvador's
two main parties would complicate the 2009 electoral
scenario, he has little if any chance of becoming president.
El Salvador's 50 percent threshold for presidential elections
makes unlikely a scenario such as that which ledto Ortega's
return to power in neighboring Nicargua. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) BACKGROUND: Salgado,born March 13, 1966 to a family
of poor coffee wrkers in Usulutan Department, served
1982-1985 a a non-commissioned officer with the Salvadoran
pecial Forces during the country's armed conflict,prior to
establishing a successful chain of electical appliance and
household goods stores. He was elected Mayor of San Miguel
in 2000 on the center-left Christian Democratic Party (PDC)
ticket, but switched to the ruling Nationalist Republican
Alliance (ARENA) party before winning reelection in 2003. He
later defected to the center-right National Conciliation
Party (PCN) prior to winning a third term in March 2006.
Salgado's grassroots populism as Mayor of San Miguel has kept
his approval ratings remarkably high, but the eccentric
mayor's tenure has also been marked by often-bizarre
behavior, including a January interview by the Washington
Post in which Salgado claimed to have kept a wartime
collection of babies' skulls (reftel B).


3. (C) In the lead-up to March 2006 Legislative Assembly and
municipal elections, Salgado threatened to leave the party
unless his sister Sandra Salgado Garcia was tapped as the
PCN's Legislative Assembly candidate for San Miguel. Sandra
was duly nominated and elected; PCN Secretary General Ciro
Cruz Zepeda's resentment at Salgado's power play was
exacerbated by the failure of Zepeda's own reelection bid.
Salgado further rankled Zepeda and other PCN leaders with a
unilateral announcement in September 2006 that he would run
for president in 2009 (reftel A).


4. (C) In a closed-door June 14 meeting, 11 of the PCN's 15
National Executive Council members voted to expel Salgado for
his indisciplined behavior. In an interview the following
day, Salgado responded with sharp criticism of Zepeda's
leadership of the PCN, and speculated that ARENA had played a
role in his expulsion. Salgado's ejection was made official
on June 17. PCN Legislative Assembly deputies Elizardo
Gonzalez Lovo and Orlando Arevalo quickly expressed their
disagreement with Salgado's banishment, and at a closed June
20 beach-resort meeting, a dozen PCN mayors closed ranks
behind Salgado and even hinted that they might follow him in
affiliating with a new party.


5. (C) Following his expulsion, Salgado expressed his wish
to take 60 days to think over his political future and
consider his options. Rumors immediately surfaced that he
would rejoin the PDC, but PDC Legislative Assembly chief
Rodolfo Parker outlined to poloff that although Salgado wants
to return to the PDC, nothing has been decided, and that
indeed both he and Salgado would think things over for two
months. Parker related that the added strength Salgado could
offer the PDC in the country's eastern region was offset by
his unpredictable behavior and persistent rumors of
corruption. For their part, FDR leaders traveled to San
Miguel June 24 to lunch with Salgado in a clear attempt to
recruit him to their ranks. FDR National Coordinator Julio
Hernandez explained to poloff that, notwithstanding his
lukewarm personal view of Salgado and ideological
differences, the San Miguel Mayor would significantly augment
the new party's power base, and go far in overcoming its
image as mere "leftist light" FMLN malcontents. In bringing
along his sister, Salgado would also return an FDR presence
to the Legislative Assembly.


6. (C) COMMENT: Although it is very unlikely that ARENA had
any hand in Salgado's expulsion, they are undoubtedly
relieved that he cannot now run for president as a PCN
candidate; a 2009 ARENA-PCN coalition looks more likely than
ever. President Saca on June 26 publicly suggested that
ARENA, the PCN, and the PDC should unite around a single
candidate for "freedom and democracy", while the left could

put forth a communist candidate; the PDC quickly declined
Saca's offer. Given El Salvador's requirement for a
50-percent-plus-one majority vote in presidential elections,
Salgado appears to stand virtually no chance of becoming
president via either the PDC or FDR, but if he should succeed
in throwing the contest into a second round, ARENA and the
FMLN will surely beat a path to his door. END COMMENT.
Glazer