ANTI-CAFTA MARCH STRATEGIC VICTORY FOR GOCR

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 000428

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN JASON MACK, WHA/EPSC AND DS/IP/WHA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB ASEC PINR CS
SUBJECT: ANTI-CAFTA MARCH STRATEGIC VICTORY FOR GOCR

REF: A. 06 SAN JOSE 2431

B. SAN JOSE 361

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The most recent, and probably the last large
anti-CAFTA protest march took place without incident on
February 26. Participation was only slightly higher than a
similar protest last October, and the event was generally
peaceful. We judge the event to have been a tactical draw,
in that both sides can claim success, but a strategic victory
for the GOCR, since the protest changed nothing. CAFTA
continues to wind its way through the torturous Costa Rican
legislative process, which in itself presents challenges
enough to ratification. END SUMMARY.

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ANOTHER MONDAY, ANOTHER MARCH
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2. (U) On February 26, another anti-CAFTA march took place
through the streets of San Jose, culminating with a rally in
front of the national legislature. Various speakers,
including ex-president Rodrigo Carazo (Unidad, 1978-1982),
denounced the Agreement and called for the Arias
administration to withdraw it from the legislative process
and hold a full national dialogue on the issue. An umbrella
group of labor unions, university students and professors,
small farmers, and various social organizations participated,
although estimated union participation was lower than during
last October,s protest (Ref A). The colorful, carnival-like
event even featured small children wearing red buttons
stating "Venezuela is a friend, CAFTA is the enemy."
Citizen's Action Party (PAC) president Otton Solis joined the
marchers as did the 17 legislators from his party and the two
others opposed to CAFTA.


3. (SBU) Estimates of the crowd size varied, as the protest
got off to a languid start. The national police publicly
estimated that 10,000 to 20,000 people eventually
participated, while leading periodical "La Nacion" claimed
23,500 were involved. Our best sources in the security
services estimated the crowd at 7,000, which puts this
protest on par with, or only a little larger than, the
October events, despite the use of buses by the opposition to
bring in more protesters from outside San Jose. Even the
media estimate (exaggerated on our view) was far fewer than
the 50,000 protesters organizers had predicted.

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PEACEFUL, AS PROMISED
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4. (U) Protest organizers, generally kept their promise to
keep the event peaceful (Ref B). The main highway between
San Jose and Limon was blockaded briefly near Siquirres, but
after the police arrived and a few arrests made (peacefully),
the line of waiting tractor-trailers was moving again. Police
had pre-positioned units at potential chokepoints around the
country in anticipation of precisely this sort of action.
Security was tight at the national legislature, with unarmed
female police officers positioned along the metal barricades
(politely but firmly) to discourage any attempt to enter the
facility. Some union leaders warned the media that
heavily-armed, Colombian-trained riot police were ready
to swoop in on innocent marchers, but this wild claim
found no traction. The legislature kept a regular schedule
in the morning, but the afternoon plenary session was
canceled due to the lack of a quorum. (Between legislators
traveling, locked out of the building or protesting, only 35
were available. A quorum is 38.) The politicians quickly
took advantage of their free afternoon, however, to work
the crowd. Even legislators aligned with the GOCR
congratulated the protesters for keeping the peace, and
defended their right to protest. Public services were
largely unaffected, and almost 80 percent of teachers were in
class nationwide, about the same as during October's strike.
There were no protests near the Embassy, nor were Embassy
operations affected in any way.

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LAST OF THE MARCHES
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5. (U) As expected, both sides claimed victory and applauded
Costa Rica,s "exemplary democracy." As Minister of
Government Arias made clear in a post-protest televised
face-off with Eugenio Trejos (National Front for the Fight
Against CAFTA),the GOCR has no intention of changing its
plans. The CAFTA ratification process would continue. Trejos
and labor union leaders acknowledged that the February 26
event likely ended the march-and-rally phase of the fight
against CAFTA. However, Trejos, voiced concerns of possible
violence by radical elements if the government ignored
the call of the street and proceeded anyway with CAFTA.
Public sector union leader Albino Vargas was more blunt,
repeating his (now familiar) refrain that only through
national strikes and "a referendum in the streets," can the
"unconstitutional" and "illegitimate" CAFTA ratification be
halted.

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COMMENT
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6. (SBU) The February 26 events did soften the face of the
anti-CAFTA protests, but that was all. The GOCR emerged with
the upper hand, and can concentrate now on overcoming the
challenges and delays to CAFTA inside the legislature.
Ironically, the anti-CAFTA bloc,s earlier constitutional
challenge to CAFTA fast track rules probably absorbed some of
the energy from this protest. Instead of taking place with a
ratification vote imminent, the march took place as CAFTA
supporters and opponents were waiting for a Supreme Court
decision on the proposed legislative rules. The
opposition,s hoped for best case scenario, a public display
of overzealous police suppression of protesters, failed to
materialize, due to foresight and planning by the Ministry of
Security. Call this a strategic victory for the Arias
Administration.
WEITZENKORN