DEATH OF SHEIKH AL-AHMAR PACKS AN EMOTIONAL PUNCH

S E C R E T SANAA 002365

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL YM
SUBJECT: DEATH OF SHEIKH AL-AHMAR PACKS AN EMOTIONAL PUNCH

REF: A. SANAA 2266

B. SANAA 2334

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar, the Speaker of Yemen's
Parliament and its most powerful tribal figure, died in Saudi
Arabia on the morning of December 29 and was buried on
December 31. His various titles and roles will likely be
distributed among the men who performed those functions
during his long illness. Consequently, the impact of his
death is likely to be largely emotional. End Summary.

The Sheikh is Dead
--------------


2. (C) On December 29 Mohamed Qahtan, a member of the Islah
party's Supreme Council, told PolOff that the Speaker of
Yemen's Parliament, Sheikh Abdullah Bin Husayn al-Ahmar, had
passed away that morning in Saudi Arabia. In addition to
being Speaker of the Parliament, the late Sheikh was the head
of the opposition Islah party, Paramount Sheikh of the Hashid
tribe, and Sheikh of Sheikhs for all of Yemen's tribes. The
impending death of al-Ahmar, who had been hospitalized in
Saudi Arabia and recently in the United Kingdom, had been the
subject of speculation in Yemen for some time. In a December
30 meeting, Foreign Minister AbuBakr al-Qirbi called the
death of al-Ahmar "a great loss" to Yemen and said that the
late Sheikh had been a moderating force, particularly on
tribal issues.

Funerary Arrangements
--------------


3. (C) In a December 29 meeting, Assistant Deputy Foreign
Minister Khalid al-Akwa told PolOff that the ROYG had
announced a three day period of mourning (December 29-31) for
the late Sheikh. He added that the ROYG was assisting in the
return of al-Ahmar's remains to Yemen and that the funeral
was scheduled for December 31. This morning, prayers for the
deceased were held at a mosque in the old city of Sana'a
followed at 9:30 AM by a procession to Sabeen Square. An
estimated crowd of 200 to 300 thousand attended the ceremony
and procession. The ROYG closed the area to vehicular
traffic for the duration of the event. The burial took place
later at a cemetery in the Hadda neighborhood in the south of
Sana'a. Those mourners who attended the burial (a subset of
the larger group) were invited by the family to a lunch and
qat chew starting at 11:00 AM at the Tourist City compound
adjacent to the U.S. Embassy. No violence or disturbances
were reported.


4. (U) A separate condolence program for dignitaries and the
diplomatic corps was held at 3:00 PM on December 31. The
Ambassador attended.


5. (C) Poloff asked al-Akwa if the ROYG expected any problems
dealing with large numbers of tribal mourners entering
Sana'a, in light of the ban on the carrying of weapons in the
capital. Al-Akwa noted that the ROYG had negotiated an
agreement with the Hashid tribe who, like other tribes, has
been resistant to the ban, to surrender its weapons.
Regardless of any such agreements, the ROYG exerted
considerable efforts to keep the ceremonies from getting out
of hand. PolOffs traveling to work in the hours prior to the
funeral noted military checkpoints on roads approaching the
cemetery in Hadda, increased military presence on the
streets, and even the deployment of water cannons. RSO
reported that mourners approaching Sabeen Square were being
searched before being allowed to pass.


6. (C) In the early afternoon on December 29, Sabaphone, a
local cell phone service owned by al-Ahmar's son Hamid,
circulated SMS messages to its subscribers inviting them to a
local exposition facility to express their condolences. 3000
to 5000 people are estimated to have attended. The mood was
said to be solemn with many mourners chewing qat.

Where Will the Power Go?
--------------


7. (S) Ref A predicted that no one person would assume all of
Sheikh al-Ahmar's titles and positions. This prediction now
appears to have been accurate. On December 30, al-Qirbi told
the Ambassador that al-Ahmar's eldest son Sadiq, a close ally
of President Saleh, will become the paramount Sheikh of the
Hashid tribe. (Note: This was also confirmed by a military
source who said that the decision had been made over a year
ago (septel). End Note.) Al-Qirbi approved of this choice,
calling Sadiq "assured and responsible" and noting that he
will be "a son who will follow in his father's footsteps."


8. (C) Al-Qirbi said that al-Ahmar had been made Speaker of
Parliament because of his credibility and prestige but that
the ruling General People's Congress (GPC) would now most
likely select one of their own to replace him. Speculation
among embassy contacts has long focused on Deputy (currently
Acting) Speaker (and GPC member) Yahya al-Raie.


9. (C) With respect to the leadership of Islah, Qirbi was
much more reserved, saying: "We will have to wait and see
what will happen within Islah. It is too early to know. It
will be a very important indicator of which way Islah is
going." Post sees Mohammed Abdullah al-Yadumi, Islah's
deputy head, as his most likely successor.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Sheikh al-Ahmar has been unable to perform his roles
for some time. If, as post suspects, his roles as Sheikh of
the Hashid tribe, Speaker of the Parliament and head of Islah
pass to the men who have been performing them during his
illness, the impact of his death will be mostly emotional.
SECHE