Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SANAA1414
2007-07-23 13:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Sanaa
Cable title:  

SAADA: CEASEFIRE FRAGILE, BUT HOLDING

Tags:  MOPS PREL PGOV YM 
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VZCZCXRO9918
PP RUEHDE RUEHDIR
DE RUEHYN #1414/01 2041345
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231345Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7648
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 001414 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017
TAGS: MOPS PREL PGOV YM
SUBJECT: SAADA: CEASEFIRE FRAGILE, BUT HOLDING

REF: SANAA 1022

Classified By: CDA ANGIE BRYAN, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 001414

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017
TAGS: MOPS PREL PGOV YM
SUBJECT: SAADA: CEASEFIRE FRAGILE, BUT HOLDING

REF: SANAA 1022

Classified By: CDA ANGIE BRYAN, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The security environment in Saada remains
tense with continuing minor clashes, but the tenuous
ceasefire is holding and there have been no reports of major
fighting. Qatar's recall of its delegation from the Saada
ceasefire implementation committee is a major step backwards.
Information coming from Saada remains ambiguous and reports
that al-Houthis are vacating military positions and
conducting limited weapons turn-ins could be important first
steps in establishing security or concessions designed to
mask repositioning and regrouping of forces in preparation to
renew major fighting. Abdul Malek al-Houthi and his military
commander remain in Saada with no indication they intend to
repatriate to Qatar. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) Charge received Saada updates from Foreign Minister
Abu Bakr al-Qirbi during a 7/15 courtesy call, and from
Interior Minister Alimi, 7/17, during a visit with Admiral
Fallon. Foreign Minister al-Qirbi offered the general
assessment that the ceasefire was "partially working". He
added that President Saleh is committed to the Saada
agreement as well as granting amnesty to al-Houthi
supporters. Alimi offered the view that in spite of numerous
violations, the al-Houthis had recently taken some positive
first steps. However, during a 7/17 LEGATT meeting with
Deputy Minister of Interior Sunaidar, Sunaidar stated his
belief that the al-Houthis were using the ceasefire agreement
to regroup and prepare for a resumption of combat operations.


Tensions Remain
- - - - - - - -


3. (SBU) Alimi commented that the al-Houthis have committed
200 violations since the President's May 22 Unity Day
statement declaring a cessation of hostilities and were
responsible for 13 security personnel deaths, 123 injuries,
four civilian deaths, and the destruction of two houses. He
stated that last week the implementation committee decided to
withdraw from Saada out of frustration with the lack of
progress, but President Saleh ordered them to stay. Alimi
stated that there are 2,000 ideologically committed

al-Houthis, supported by 3,000 others who were willing to
fight for the al-Houthi cause. He identified another 5,000
sympathizers willing to give material aid but not fight, for
a total of 10,000 al-Houthi supporters. (COMMENT: An Embassy
officer at the meeting interpreted Alimi's 10,000-man
estimate as a reference to al-Houthi supporters in or near
the Saada governorate. END COMMENT.)


Qatari Delegation Attacked and Recalled
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


4. (SBU) Local media outlets reported that a ceasefire
implementation committee convoy which included Qatari
representatives was ambushed on Sunday, 7/15, wounding two
bodyguards. During a 7/18 meeting with Embassy officers, the
Qatari Charge confirmed that the attack occurred and that the
Qatari delegation was unharmed. Government media outlets
blamed al-Houthi supporters, but opposition, independent, and
Islah party online news sites reported a statement by Abdul
Malek al-Houthi condemning the attack and categorically
denying any involvement by al-Houthi supporters.



5. (U) The Qatari Embassy confirmed on 7/23 that it recalled
its delegation serving on the implementation committee from
Saada for "further consultation and evaluation of the
situation". Qatari Embassy contacts added that the
delegation is in Sanaa as of 7/23 and will depart for Qatar
the same day.


Limited Weapons Turn-in
- - - - - - - - - - - -


6. (SBU) Both al-Qirbi and Alimi stated that on a limited
basis, the al-Houthis are turning in weapons. The
independent "Al Ayyam" online outlet reported that al-Houthi
negotiators in Duhyan agreed on Sunday 7/15 to turn in
weapons. The GPC website reported on 7/16 that the ceasefire
implementation committee was supervising the turnover of

SANAA 00001414 002 OF 002


al-Houthi weapons. (COMMENT: DAO contacts report no medium
or heavy weapons have been turned in. END COMMENT.)


Al-Houthis Vacating Some Positions
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


7. (SBU) Interior Minister Alimi said that "the Houthis are
coming down from the mountains". This view has been
supported by reports from local government and independent
media beginning on 7/13 that al-Houthi supporters vacated
three positions and relinquished control to government forces
in the vicinity of Majz, northwest of Saada. Local
independent media reported Yasir al-Awadhi, the official
spokesman from the implementation committee, saying that
al-Houthi forces vacated one of their most important
positions, Um Layla Mountain located 60 kilometers northwest
of Saada. He considered this to be among "the most important
achievements of the implementation committee and an important
confidence-building measure".


Prisoner Release
- - - - - - - - -


8. (C) Media outlets recently reported that the al-Houthis
released approximately 60 prisoners as a goodwill gesture,
but continue to hold 90 others. An Embassy contact whose
brother is a senior officer in the Northwest Area Command and
works closely with its commander Ali Muhsin also reported
that the prisoner release occurred. The contact, who owns
two large farms in Saada seized by the al-Houthis during the
fighting, stated that the al-Houthis recently returned the
farms, but stripped the insides of valuables and family
heirlooms.


Relief Operations Continue Amidst Security Concerns
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


9. (SBU) The International Committee for the Red Cross
(ICRC) continues to restrict its operations to Saada City out
of security concerns. Since the May 2 attack on their convoy
enroute to Baqim, northwest of Saada, they have not resumed
aid operations to an estimated 2,300 families located in
remote locations throughout the governorate. The ICRC and
the Yemen Red Crescent Society estimate there are a total of
8,000 families or approximately 56,000 internally displaced
persons (IDPs) in Saada Governorate. (COMMENT: ICRC uses a
baseline of seven persons per family. END COMMENT.) They
continue to provide non-food aid (blankets, water cans, soap,
water) and primary health care through five mobile clinics to
5,700 families located in or near Saada. They operate two
camps in Saada: Al Anad camp that holds 2,000 families, and
a smaller camp housing 96 families. They report that the
remainder of the internally displaced persons not in camps
continue to live with host families in or near Saada.
(COMMENT: The United Nation's World Food Program is
reporting 3,550 registered internally displaced families
(24,850 persons) in or near Saada City. END COMMENT.)



10. (C) COMMENT: No major fighting has occurred in Saada
since the Qatari-brokered peace deal was struck in mid-June
although the security situation remains tense and sporadic
fighting, like the attack on the ceasefire implementation
committee convoy, continues. We will continue to monitor the
Qatari recall of its delegation and its impact on the
ceasefire negotiations, but we view this development as a
step backwards in establishing a stable security environment.
Reports that the al-Houthis are leaving the mountains and
their relinquishment of Um Layla Mountain stronghold
represent important first steps overshadowed by the
possibility that Deputy MOI Sunaidar could be right: they
could be concessions designed to mask the regrouping and
repositioning of al-Houthi forces and preparations to renew
major fighting. Reports of an al-Houthi prisoner release and
limited weapon turn-ins are also positive signs even though
they came on the heels of four extensions to a turn-in
deadline and threats by the implementation committee to
return to Sanaa. Abdul Malek al-Houthi and his military
commander Ruzaimi remain in Saada with no indication that
they intend to repatriate to Qatar. We note that the ICRC's
decision to restrict relief operations to the vicinity of
Saada City is indicative of the tense security situation and
tenuous nature of the ceasefire. END COMMENT.
BRYAN