ITALY FULLY SUPPORTS AHTISAARI, CONTACT GROUP ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000046

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO SR YI IT
SUBJECT: ITALY FULLY SUPPORTS AHTISAARI, CONTACT GROUP ON
KOSOVO

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Classified By: Classified by David D. Pearce, Political Minister Counse
lor, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) MFA DG for European Affairs Laura Mirachian says Italy
is fully onboard with the Contact Group's support of UNOSEK
Ahtisaari. She stated that there is broad bipartisan and
expert consensus in supporting Kosovar "delinkage" from
Serbia and a NATO and EU future for all the countries of the
region. Italy expects Ahtisaari's report to be made the
first week of February followed by Contact Group consultation
on the way forward and a UNSC discussion to follow shortly
afterward - before the formation of a new Serbian government.
Based on her recent visit to Moscow wit FM D'Alema, and
their meeting with President Putin, Mirachian thought the
Russians would seek to limit the scope of any resolution but
would ultimately not block the process from moving forward.
She agreed on the need for close coordination between the US
and EU on the issue of recognition and asked that the US
remain engaged through KFOR and in the civilian
implementation process. Italy remains concerned about the
long-term stability of the region and the effects of
organized crime and trafficking if the international
community does not maintain a strong presence in Kosovo for
some time. End summary.


Italian Consensus on Way Forward
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2. (C) Mirachian told PolMinCouns that Italy believed the
Contact Group has been successful in bringing stability to
the Western Balkans and saw the Kosovo status process as one
of the final steps needed to bring this period of history to
an end. Mirachian added that the final status process needed
to be taken in concert with a regional approach to EU and
NATO integration in order to avoid any further instability.
She noted that there is bipartisan and expert support for
this vision of the Balkans and she expected full support from
the FM and PM in moving ahead on Kosovo's final status in
concert with the rest of the Contact Group.


Italy Supports Ahtisaari, Some Concerns About Process
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3. (C) Mirachian told PolMinCouns that Italy expected a
fairly rapid timetable on Kosovo beginning with the
presentation of Ahtisaari's report in early February. After
that, she expects Contact Group consensus on moving
Ahtisaari's recommendations to the UNSC. Based on her recent
visit to Moscow with FM D'Alema, and their meeting with
President Putin, Mirachian thought the Russians would seek to
limit the scope of any resolution as much as possible, but
would ultimately not block the process from moving forward.
She suggested that Russia could try to leverage their
cooperation in exchange for concessions on other issues. She
said it was difficult to tell what those issues might be, but
noted Russia's generally difficult relations with its newly
independent neighbors, as well as territorial disputes in
Transnistria, Southern Ossetia, Abkhazia and other areas.
Mirachian said Italy's ties with Russia would be a priority
concern for her, given the country's heavy dependence on
Russian energy sources. Mirachian said Italy gets the vast
majority of its energy supplies through "three doors" --
Russia, Iran, and Arab states in North Africa.


4. (C) She was most concerned about the Kosovo process after
a potential UNSC resolution. Recognition could be a
potential problem. Should the UNSC resolution fall short of
the aspirations of the Kosovar Albanians, she feared a
unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo.

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Alternatively, Serbs could create significant problems by
rejecting the result. Therefore, close US-EU coordination on
recognition would be crucial.


Long-term Worries about Kosovo
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5. (C) Italy is concerned about both security and borders.
Kosovo may not be prepared to combat the organized crime and
trafficking problems that are likely to overwhelm its weak
institutions, and this could have a spillover effect here.
Therefore, Italy will insist on an intrusive international
presence in the areas of security and rule of law for some
time after the decision. Mirachian noted that Italy will
propose an Italian judge to head any international oversight
of the ROL program to ensure that its concerns are being met.
Additionally, Mirachian urged the US to remain involved both
in a future KFOR and in the civilian development through some
sort of steering group.


6. (C) Another issue is whether pan-Albanian and pan-Serbian
nationalist movements would push for redrawing borders.
Other countries in the region, including Bulgaria, Greece,
Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Macedonia had
expressed similar concerns. Italy therefore favored PfP and
SAA for the entire region, including Serbia. Such agreements
would provide the governments of the region a strong message
that the EU and NATO were pushing for those particular
nations with those specific borders to become part of the
trans-Atlantic community. She noted, however, that other
major EU nations such as France and Germany felt less urgency
than the immediate neighbors, and more affected by
enlargement fatigue.


Comment
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7. (C) Mirachian has extensive experience on Balkans issues
and she will be an influential voice in determining Italy's
Balkan policies. Her vision for Kosovo tracks closely with
ours on both the timing and the eventual outcome of the
process. Italy's concerns about Kosovo are less about the
final status or how we get there and more about the
international community's follow-through on security and
border issues after a status decision.
SPOLGI