ITALY-MIDDLE EAST: DAS GRAY DISCUSSES IRAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 002362

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV XF IR ZR XI IT
SUBJECT: ITALY-MIDDLE EAST: DAS GRAY DISCUSSES IRAN,
ANNAPOLIS, WESTERN SAHARA WITH GOI'S RAGAGLINI AND CARNELOS


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Classified By: Acting Political Minister Counselor Jonathan Cohen for r
easons 1.4 b and d.

Summary
--------------


1. (C) NEA DAS Gordon Gray exchanged views on Iran and
discussed the Annapolis conference with PM Diplomatic Advisor
on the Middle East Marco Carnelos on November 15 in Rome.
Gray emphasized the unwavering U.S. commitment to prevent a
nuclear Iran. Carnelos said Italy was committed to
encouraging wide Arab participation at Annapolis and that
Italy hoped the conference would deliver concrete results for
PA President Mahmoud Abbas.


2. (C) Gray also met with MFA Director General for the
Mediterranean and Middle East Cesare Ragaglini to discuss the
Multinational Force and Observers (MFO),the November 13
Italy-Algeria Summit, Western Sahara and Libya. Ragaglini
noted that Italy was pressing Spain to contribute to the MFO
and thanked Gray for the U.S.'s leadership role in the MFO.
Ragaglini reported that the Italy-Algeria summit had been
productive, focusing on energy. He was not optimistic on the
Western Sahara but shared Gray's assessment of the Moroccan
proposal as an important step forward. On Libya Ragaglini
expressed his frustration with Colonel Qadhafi's
intransigence. End Summary.

MFO: Italy Optimistic Spain will Contribute
--------------


3. (C) MFA DG Ragaglini opened his November 14 meeting with
NEA DAS Gray by thanking the U.S. for its continued
high-level support for the MFO. Ragaglini and Gray both
agreed that the MFO needed additional funding more than
additional troops. Ragalini reported that FM D'Alema had
personally encouraged Spanish FM Moratinos to contribute and
that Italy was optimistic that Spain would do so.

IRAN: U.S. Commitment Unwavering
--------------


4. (C) In his meeting November 15 meeting with the PM's
Advisor on the Middle East, Marco Carnelos, Gray underscored
that U.S. commitment on the Iranian question would remain
steady regardless of the upcoming U.S. elections. Gray noted
it was unfortunate that Iran appeared unwilling to play a
more constructive role in the region, putting aside its past,
especially in light of the removal of two of Iran's largest
headaches (Saddam and the Taliban). Iran could have reacted
with cooperation, but instead had chosen confrontation. Gray
encouraged Italy to support further UNSC action and
autonomous EU sanctions on Iran.


5. (C) Carnelos cautioned that the West should not ignore
the impact of the current turmoil in Pakistan on Iran. We
tend, he said, to see Paksitan as an actor in Afghanistan,
but from the Iranian perspective, Shiite Iran is a potential
target for Pakistan and would be the first target of an
al-Qaeda nuclear weapon. Carnelos said Italy agreed with
U.S. assessments that Iran is supporting the Taliban.
However, he argued that this was a 'tactical,' not a
'strategic' shift on Iran's part. What Iran was doing, he
argued, was intended to show that they could use their
enemies to hurt the West. It was not, he opined, an
indication of a larger strategic relationship between the
Taliban and Iran.

ANNAPOLIS: Italy Encouraging Arab Attendance
--------------


6. (C) Gray told Carnelos that the Secretary was encouraged
by progress she had seen by the Israelis and Palestinians and
that Annapolis would not be the end of a process, but the
beginning. Annapolis would be followed by the December Paris
Donors Conference at which Gray encouraged Italy, along with
its European allies and Gulf countries, to make a significant
contribution.


7. (C) Carnelos stressed the need for the conference to have
real content and not just list the final status problems.
For it to be a success, he said, PA President Mahmoud Abbas,

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much more than Israeli PM Olmert, must be able to walk away
with a clear, concrete deliverable. The key would be how
Abbas was perceived afterwards. Carnelos said Italy would do
what it could to encourage Arab participation and was telling
Arab leaders not to undermine its potential with negative
comments before the event. He noted that the Saudi King,
when asked by Prodi if he would attend, gave a negative
impression.

Positive Italy-Algeria Summit; Pessimistic on W. Sahara
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Ragaglini briefed Gray on Italy's November 14 Summit
with Algeria. The focus was on energy, but talks also
touched on the Western Sahara, cooperation against
international terrorism, infrastructure, clandestine
immigration and Italian business opportunities. President
Bouteflika led his delegation and was accompanied by his
ministers of foreign affairs, defense, finance, interior,
trade and energy. Carnelos told Gray in a separate meeting
that PM Prodi had discussed creating a financial facility for
small and medium size enterprises open to the Mediterranean
region with a special focus on North Africa.


9. (C) Gray said the U.S. was encouraged by the passage of
UNSCR 1754 on the Western Sahara and that the U.S. had worked
hard with Morocco to produce a serious plan. The resolution
echoed the U.S. assessment of Morocco's plan as serious and
credible. Gray said the U.S. would push both sides to
continue negotiations without preconditions. There is
substance to the Moroccan plan, he said, which should be
explored and the U.S. is encouraging Morocco to accept a date
for a third round of negotiations


10. (C) Ragaglini, who participated in FM D'Alema's meeting
with Algerian FM Mourad Medelci, said D'Alema had, despite
Italy's long history of support for the Polisario, stressed
to his Algerian counterpart that the Moroccan proposal was
the first new proposal on the table in over thirty years and
deserved serious consideration. The fundamental problem,
explained Ragaglini, was that the proposal was Moroccan. It
would have been received better by Algeria if it had been
proposed by a third party.


11. (C) Ragaglini noted that the Western Sahara issue is
complex and would not be resolved in the near future. The
"core" of the problem was the lack of trust between the
parties. He strongly agreed with Gray's suggestion that that
it might be a generational problem and might not be resolved
until Bouteflika was succeeded. Ragaglini lamented that the
issue was like a rock in the middle of the development of the
Maghreb, and that once resolved the whole region would
benefit greatly.

LIBYA: Italy's Relations Remain "Strained"
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12. (C) Ragaglini reported that D'Alema's November 10
meeting with Col. Qadhafi had been disappointing. Italy and
Libya had been negotiating a friendship treaty to finally
close the difficult chapters of the past, but the Libyans
consistently thwarted the process in its final stage by
making unreasonable requests. Ragaglini said Italy had been
negotiating with the Libyan Ambassador in Rome and with Amb.
Obeidi, but that neither seemed "capable of delivering." He
said only Libyan Intel Chief Musa Kusa could deliver in
Qadhafi's place.


13. (C) Gray noted that the U.S. had told the Libyan Deputy
Foreign Minister during his recent visit that when Libya
takes its seat in the UNSC in January it will be an
opportunity to show that Libya is a responsible member of the
international community.

U.S. Arms Sales to Gulf
--------------


14. (C) Gray told Ragaglini that the State Department had
informally notified Congress on November 13 on proposed arms
sales to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. While there may
be some concern in Congress over the sale to Saudi Arabia,
Gray said the State Department expected the sale to go

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through especially given the heightened threat to Saudi
Arabia from a more assertive Iran.


15. (U) DAS Gray cleared this cable.


16. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
SPOGLI