Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ROME2131
2007-10-04 16:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rome
Cable title:  

S/P GORDON ENGAGES GOI ON KOSOVO, IRAN,

Tags:  PGOV PREL XF AF IR LE UNAUS KNNP IT 
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INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE PRIORITY 2685
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ROME 002131 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL XF AF IR LE UNAUS KNNP IT
SUBJECT: S/P GORDON ENGAGES GOI ON KOSOVO, IRAN,
AFGHANISTAN, MEPP, DARFUR, UNSC REFORM, AND CLIMATE CHANGE


ROME 00002131 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: Acting Political Minister-Counselor Jonathan R. Cohen fo
r reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ROME 002131

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL XF AF IR LE UNAUS KNNP IT
SUBJECT: S/P GORDON ENGAGES GOI ON KOSOVO, IRAN,
AFGHANISTAN, MEPP, DARFUR, UNSC REFORM, AND CLIMATE CHANGE


ROME 00002131 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: Acting Political Minister-Counselor Jonathan R. Cohen fo
r reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) S/P Director David Gordon engaged senior GOI
officials on Kosovo, Russia, MEPP, Iran, Lebanon, UNSC
reform, Darfur, Afghanistan and climate change during October
1 consultations. On Kosovo the Italians said the goal should
be a UNSCR, and that the Kosovars should be persuaded to
postpone any UDI. Gordon stressed to his interlocutors that
the U.S. was committed to achieving real progress from the
upcoming MEPP meeting. The Italians emphasized that broad
attendance from the region was crucial, that some key
countries (Saudi Arabia and Egypt) had expressed doubts about
attending, and that Israeli steps to build confidence would
help. On Iran, Gordon advocated increasing international
pressure through tougher sanctions. The MFA officials said
Italy would support a third round of UNSC sanctions but were
concerned with the efficacy of the approach and advocated
combining sticks with carrots. MFA Political Director Terzi
told Gordon Italy was conceptually opposed to new UNSC
permanent seats. End Summary.


2. (C) Director of Policy Planning S/P, David Gordon met in
Rome October 1 with high-level GOI officials to discuss Iran,
Kosovo, MEPP, Darfur, Afghanistan, Lebanon/Syria and climate
Change. Gordon met with: MFA DG For Europe Laura Mirachian;
MFA DG for Mediterranean and Middle East Cesare Ragaglini;
MFA DG for Africa Armando Sanguini; MFA DG for Americas
Giovanni Verderame; Foreign Policy Advisor to FM D'Alema
Marta Dassu; MFA Office Director for Strategic Planning
Maurizio Massari; MFA DG for Political and Multilateral
Affairs Guilio Terzi; Ministry for Economic Development
Vice-DG for Energy Ing. Gilberto Dialuce; and Ministry for
Economic Development Diplomatic Advisor Vincenzo De Luca.


Kosovo
--------------


3. (C) MFA DG for Europe Laura Mirachian said she thought
the Contact Group Ministerial in NY had gone well and that
the common declaration was a step in the right direction.
Mirachian stressed the goal of a UNSCR and emphasized the
need to get "as much as possible" in writing, even if we fall
short of a comprehensive agreement. Mirachian called Kosovo
a question of national security for Italy and speculated the
worst case scenario would be, in the absence of a UNSCR, for
Kosovo to declare UDI before the EU had united. She noted
the key to consensus in the EU will be convincing Spain,
Hungary, Greece and Cyprus.


4. (C) Mirachian suggested that Kosovo could be
de-dramatized over time in much the same way as the Italian
case of South Tyrol was when Austria became an EU member.
She said the GOI had a model in mind for Kosovo where
eventually the entire neighborhood would be "in" the EU and
thus the issues of borders etc. would become less polemical.


5. (C) Mirachian said the international community could act
as a guarantor for non-aggression by both parties - thus
effectively freezing the conflict. She suggested one way to
get Serbian cooperation might be to offer them some eventual
role in the future ESDP Kosovo mission. She noted that she
had not yet floated this idea with her EU colleagues. Gordon
agreed these were important ideas to explore.

Russia: Putin Wants a Strong Russia
--------------


6. (C) Mirachian sees Putin considering a basket of issues
with which to challenge, and to improve his leverage with,
the West in an effort to return Russia to superpower status.
He knows he can't be an equal but wants to negotiate from a
position of strength. Gordon added that at the same time
Russia remains an ally in some areas where we share common
goals such as counter-terrorism and non-proliferation.
Mirachian noted Putin's top priority was to achieve some
element of "common management" over what she described as the
"gray area" which runs on a geographic line from Ukraine
south, including the Balkans and the Caucasus. According to
Mirachian, Putin fundamentally fears NATO encroachment into
this "gray area."

MEPP - Arab Participation Unsure; Need Israeli Action

ROME 00002131 002.2 OF 004


-------------- --------------


7. (C) Gordon said the U.S. was moving forward on the
international meeting scheduled for November, an historic
opportunity to make real progress on the Middle East Peace
Process (MEPP). He said we hoped for progress in three areas
from the conference: the political basket - including a
framework laying out a vision for an eventual Palestinian
state; the rebuilding of institutions and capabilities of the
PA; and improving the daily lives of the Palestinians. He
stressed that success in the second area would require
significant financial commitments from the international
community.


8. (C) MFA DG for Middle East, Cesare Ragaglini agreed with
Gordon on the significance of the November meeting, adding
that managing the differing expectations, which are high in
the PA and low in Israel, will be a challenge. FM D'Alema's
foreign policy advisor, Dassu, said that Italy sees progress
as a priority for its own national security, wants to be
included, and wants to be helpful. Ragaglini said Italy was
prepared to help convince Arab countries of the need to
participate, and noted that the Saudi King would be visiting
Rome at the beginning of November.


9. (C) Ragaglini said ensuring Arab participation in the
conference - especially from Saudi Arabia and Egypt - was
essential and that both countries had expressed doubts about
attending. Israel should show that it is ready to deliver
some results on the regional as well as the bilateral front.
He suggested Israel should consider responding to the Arab
initiative. Ragaglini, in sentiments echoed by Dassu, said
the Arab countries will need concrete results as an incentive
to participate, and urged the U.S. to press Israel to
deliver. Ragaglini suggested encouraging Israel to freeze
all new settlement activity to show that they are serious.

Iran: Combining Carrots and Sticks
--------------


10. (C) Gordon emphasized U.S. concerns with Iran's nuclear
program, and Iran's provocative behavior in Iraq and
Afghanistan, and advocated increasing international pressure
through support for tougher sanctions. Gordon added that
international community resolve had weakened Iranian
President Ahmadinejad's position within the Iranian
hierarchy. Ragaglini, Dassu and MFA Political Director Terzi
all said, in separate meetings, that the GOI shares our
concern regarding a nuclear armed Iran but that Italy is
worried the current strategy isn't working. All agreed on
the need to unite the international community and commented
that EU and U.S. action alone was insufficient. Tehran, they
said, needs to see the world united, and therefore UNSC
action is preferable. Ragaglini said "sanctions never
achieve the goal for which they are imposed." He noted
sanctions had failed to stop Iran from getting enrichment
technology so would be unlikely to prevent them from
achieving a nuclear weapons capability. He asked
rhetorically how we could achieve that critical and difficult
goal. Ragaglini suggested the international community needed
a creative solution to move the Iran issue off its current
dangerous track. He echoed his minister's suggestion to the
Secretary in NY of combining carrots and sticks, offering to

SIPDIS
negotiate without preconditions, while at the same time
passing a third round of tougher UNSC sanctions. Dassu added
that in her analysis what Iran is really looking for is to be
taken seriously by the U.S.


11. (C) Gordon argued that now is not the time to give Iran
a face-saving option. He said it is important for Iran to
first perceive that the international community is united and
ready to increase the pressure. If Iran sensed division or
weakness in the international community's resolve, they would
have no incentive to change their behavior.


12. (C) Ragaglini said there were ultimately only two
options on the table: a strict verification regime or a
military strike. He noted that both a nuclear armed Iran and
a military strike would have devastating consequences. For
Italy to be able to eventually support a military strike, he
stressed that the Italian public would have to be convinced
that the international community had truly exhausted all
possible diplomatic options. Political Director Terzi noted
that the Italian Ambassador in Moscow reported increased
Russian frustration with repeated Iranian refusals to comply
with UNSCR 1747. Terzi read this as signaling a possible

ROME 00002131 003.2 OF 004


opening by Russia to further UNSC action. Gordon noted the
discussion of action outside the UNSC (e.g. EU sanctions)
could add support to the UNSC approach by showing China and
Russia (and Iran) that we have other options.

Lebanon/Syria: Ragaglini Proposes Opening Toward Syria
-------------- --------------


13. (C) Gordon noted that the role of Syria in Lebanon,
particularly the use of assassination as a political weapon,
was absolutely unacceptable. Ragaglini agreed and said the
problem is that the Syrians still think of Lebanon as a
Syrian province. He said the international community needed
to find a way to de-couple Syria and Iran. He suggested
opening up to Syria in order to bring them to "our side." He
advocated getting Israel to offer the Golan Heights and the
U.S. to assure that we were not seeking "regime change," in
return for Syrian support for a sovereign Lebanon free of
Syrian interference.

UNSC Reform
--------------


14. (C) MFA DG for Political and Multilateral Affairs Guilio
Terzi was eager to engage Gordon on the topic UNSC reform.
He lamented the difficulty of the UNSC to handle issues of
crucial importance and noted it would get more difficult to
discuss such issues if countries such as South Africa, Brasil
or India were to have a permanent seat. Terzi said the GOI
could not support a seat for any other EU country and that to
do so could have disastrous effects for an eventual EU common
foreign policy. Conceptually, he said, Italy opposes new
permanent seats. Terzi said the GOI would support creative
suggestions to UNSC reform including looking at formulas for
non-permanent membership which might be eligible after 10
years for permanent membership (subject to a vote in the GA.)


15. (C) Gordon agreed that composition of the UNSC is one of
the most challenging issues facing the international
community. He explained that the U.S. position remains in
support of a UNSC seat for Japan and an openness in principle
to further enlargement as appropriate. Gordon said the U.S.
firmly believes the permanent UNSC members should reflect the
most capable countries in the international community and
that the UNSC should not be a place to reflect regional
interests. Gordon added that any decisions on UNSC reform
must reflect broad consensus and be consistent in retaining
the character of the UNSC and its functions.

Darfur
--------------


16. (C) In his meeting on Sudan with MFA Director General
for Sub-Saharan Africa Armando Sanguini, Gordon said our
priority must be the full, rapid deployment of UNAMID.
Sanguini said Italy shares U.S. concerns about the
deteriorating situation in Darfur, illustrated by the recent
attack on AU forces, and solving the crisis will require
action on three fronts: security, political reconciliation,
and addressing root sources of conflict (e.g. access to
natural resources). While we must urge all rebels to
participate in the Tripoli talks (which he said should retain
the format of previous Tripoli talks),we must also define a
clear position towards those who refuse to participate in
that dialogue. Responding to Gordon's inquiry about
contributing to UNAMID, Sanguini said Italy would offer air
assets and training.

Afghanistan
--------------


17. (C) Gordon told his interlocutors he was concerned that
the Afghans believe international support is waning. He said
now is the time for the international community to firm-up
long term commitments to ensure the Afghan population that we
are there to stay. Terzi agreed and said Italy had
appreciated being able to participate in the recent
coordination meeting in Washington. The GOI supported the
U.S. proposal for a high-level Special Representative to
Afghanistan who can both coordinate the various efforts on
the ground while also ramping up the profile of the effort.
MFA Policy Planning Director Maurizio Massari shared Gordon's
concern and said the GOI was considering proposing an
international conference next year to evaluate the
Afghanistan Compact at its mid-point. He suggested such a
conference might be an opportunity to reflect together on how

ROME 00002131 004.2 OF 004


best to increase Afghan ownership and capacity. Gordon said
it was a proposal worth exploring further.

Climate Change & Energy
--------------


18. (C) S/P Gordon and Ministry of Economic Development
Diplomatic Advisor Vincenzo De Luca discussed Italy,s slow
economic growth, energy policy and views towards
international cooperation on climate change. De Luca said
that Italy,s growth was lagging behind other European
countries due to Italy,s reliance on textile, food, design
and industrial exports ) all sectors that face stiff
competition from China and India. Two bright spots were,
according to De Luca, recent growth in textile exports and
Fiat,s return from bankruptcy. De Luca acknowledged that
while progress has been made on reducing Italy,s debt,
Italy,s large public expenditures would be difficult to
reduce further. Turning to energy policy, De Luca provided
an optimistic overview of Italy,s plans to decrease reliance
on Russian oil and gas and highlighted new construction
projects, but cautioned that so-called Not In My Backyard-ism
(NIMBYism) may delay their plans. Gordon shared with De Luca,
Dassu, MFA Americas DG Verderame and Massari (in separate
meetings) his thoughts on where climate change negotiations
are headed, including the focus on new technology, targets
and a mechanism to ensure governments abide by their
commitments. De Luca agreed with USG priorities, but
encouraged quick action and said that he believed
international agreements should be put in place by 2009.


19. (U) This cable has been cleared by S/P.
SPOGLI