SOMALIA: MEETING OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONTACT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 002014

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL SO IT
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: MEETING OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONTACT
GROUP IN ROME

REF: ROME 1938

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Classified By: Acting Pol M/C Jonathan R. Cohen, for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: A/S Frazer led the U.S. delegation to the
September 10 meeting of the International Contact Group (ICG)
on Somalia in Rome. ICG members discussed next steps
following the conclusion of the National Reconciliation
Congress (NRC) in Mogadishu and stressed the need for a
roadmap for the remainder of the transitional political
process through 2009 and full deployment of the African Union
Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The final text of the ICG
communique is reported reftel. END SUMMARY.

SENTINELLI - NRC A "SUCCESS"
--------------


2. (U) Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer
led the U.S. delegation to the September 10 meeting of the
International Contact Group (ICG) on Somalia in Rome.
Italian MFA Director General for Sub-Saharan Africa Armando
Sanguini chaired the meeting, and Vice Minister for
Development Assistance and Sub-Saharan Africa Patrizia
Sentinelli delivered opening remarks. Norway, Sweden,
Tanzania, the United Kingdom, the United Nations, the
European Union, the African Union, Kenya on behalf of the
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD),and the
League of Arab States attended the meeting. Canada, Egypt,
France and Yemen also participated as observers. This
meeting also marked the first international appearance of the
new UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General
(SRSG),Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah. The Foreign Minister of the
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was invited to brief
the ICG on the TFG's efforts following the conclusion of the
NRC.


3. (U) Sentinelli's opening remarks noted that this ICG
meeting was the first opportunity for the group to reflect on
the recently concluded NRC. She recalled concerns that the
NRC might never get off the ground, or would be the target of
attacks by extremists. The successful conclusion of the NRC
was a significant milestone, although Sentinelli noted that
violence and insecurity remained problems, particularly in
Mogadishu. She highlighted statements that emerged from the
NRC on the role of women in Somali politics, and urged the
ICG to continue to press the TFG to focus on this theme.

AFTER THE NRC, THE WAY FORWARD
--------------


4. (C) There was broad agreement that the NRC had been a
positive, if imperfect, development in promoting dialogue
among Somali stakeholders. Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister
Raymond Johansen acknowledged that the international
community "cannot pretend" that the NRC achieved all of its
objectives, but emphasized that the conclusions and
recommendations of the NRC offered a way forward in the
transitional political process. Johansen urged ICG members
to judge the TFG based on President Abdullahi Yusuf's
statement at the NRC closing ceremony in Mogadishu in which
he vowed to "pave a new political path that will win the
confidence of the Somali people" through continued dialogue
and outreach.


5. (C) A/S Frazer identified three areas as critical to
success in Somalia: 1) achieving a more equitable
power-sharing arrangement within the TFG following the
conclusion of the NRC, as well as bringing pressure to bear
on Eritrea and Qatar for supporting rejectionists in Asmara;
2) addressing the deteriorating security environment and
threat of violence through a ceasefire agreement; and 3)
supporting the full deployment of AMISOM. Finally, A/S
Frazer emphasized the need to look internally at the
structure of the ICG, which was now far too large to be
effective for specific action in the political process. A/S
Frazer suggested that another configuration may be necessary,
perhaps smaller groups focused on discrete areas of action in
which certain countries have particular expertise or interest.


6. (C) Tanzania said that full deployment of AMISOM had been
frustrated by a lack of logistical and financial support, and
urged the ICG to press countries for greater contributions to
AMISOM. A/S Frazer pointed out that financing was not the
only obstacle to AMISOM deployment and that some countries
were hesitant to send their troops into a volatile and
dangerous situation. Several delegates asked whether the UN
could assume the AMISOM mission, at least on financial and

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logistical matters.


7. (C) ICG members shared common views on the need to assist
the TFG in operationalizing the conclusions of the NRC
through development of a roadmap for the remainder of the
transitional political process through 2009. Delegates also
discussed the need to reach out to the opposition and to
include all those who reject violence. Kenya, participating
as IGAD chair, called for ICG unity, and expressed concern
over ICG members attending parallel peace talks in Asmara,
which created the appearance of a divided international
community. Egypt emphasized the need to look into monitoring
and ensuring the accountability of the TFG during the
transitional period, and to support the establishment of
transitional bodies as outlined by the Transitional Federal
Charter. Egypt offered to help establish "channels of
communication" to opposition elements needing to be brought
into the broader political process. The AU emphasized the
need to consider those not participating constructively as
spoilers who must not be tolerated.

TFG - WE NEED YOUR SUPPORT, BUT DON'T TIE OUR HANDS
-------------- --------------


8. (C) TFG Foreign Minister Hussein Elabe Fahiye presented a
rosy picture to the ICG, describing Somalia as "emerging from
civil war" in which terrorists are "fading away." Fahiye
stressed the need to create a "conducive environment" through
the full deployment of AMISOM and appealed to the
international community to provide support to the AU forces
to "help maintain peace." Fahiye also appealed for
international support in training of the TFG military and
police. As conditions continue to improve, Fahiye made a plea
for the international community to follow the lead of Yemen
and Norway and establish embassies or offices in Mogadishu.


9. (C) Fahiye outlined the TFG's priorities as: 1) drafting a
new constitution and submitting it to the Parliament for
approval, to be followed by popular referendum; 2) completing
a national census, which Fahiye cautioned may not be possible
within the remaining 2 year period; 3) establishing political
parties; and 4) conducting free and fair multi-party
elections in 2009. Fahiye said that the TFG welcomes the
participation of a loyal opposition, who could even "take
over if they want to." Fahiye characterized the NRC as
having ended successfully, but said that the process was only
beginning and would continue with local and regional
reconciliation until a final agreement is reached.


10. (C) A/S Frazer urged the TFG to reach out to those who
have so far remained outside of the political process.
Norway and the UK asked for a timetable for achieving the
TFG's goals, and questioned whether it would be possible to
complete a national census in the remaining mandate of the
TFG. The European Commission echoed those concerns, and said
that from previous experience in Burundi it already appeared
too late to conduct a complete census before elections if the
elections are to be held according to schedule in 2009.
Without providing specific details on the timetable, Fahiye
acknowledged that the timeframe was ambitious, but maintained
it was achievable and necessary. On reaching out, Fahiye
said that the TFG "will do all it can," did not want to
discriminate against anyone, and wanted all to take part, as
long as opposition figures renounce violence and "play by
acceptable rules." In response to a question from the
European Union on whether the TFG wanted the assistance of
the international community in facilitating links or dialogue
with opposition figures, Fahiye said that the TFG would
welcome the assistance of the international community, but
cautioned not to "tie our hands."

AMISOM AND THE UN - THE VIEW ON THE GROUND
--------------


11. (C) Ugandan Major General Benon Buta Biraaro, speaking on
behalf of AMISOM, warned the ICG that the NRC had only been
made possible because of the presence of Ethiopian troops in
Mogadishu. Those troops would not be sufficient to provide
security throughout the country for elections, and AMISOM
remained far below its intended deployment strength. Biraaro
said that elections in 2009 would be possible if there were a
full deployment of UN troops on the ground now, but
questioned whether the timetable was workable given the
current reality. The Deputy Foreign Minister of Kenya,
representing IGAD, and the AU representative repeatedly and
forcefully called for deployment of a UN peace operation in
Somalia and insisted it be included in the final communique.


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12. (SBU) On the humanitarian situation, UN Resident
Representative Eric Laroche said that the current situation
was the worst in his three years in Somalia, noting the high
rates of malnutrition and increase of internally displaced
persons (IDPs). Laroche cited reduced trade from the Bakara
market and a recent printing of Somali currency by the TFG as
contributing to the worsening situation. Laroche urged the
ICG to "support peace dividends" and help build the mid-level
governance capacity of the TFG. Finally, Laroche noted that
the UN and World Bank were moving to finalize the
Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP),but that the
TFG had refused to support the RDP because it did not
sufficiently address the issue of federalism and TFG
sovereignty.

A/S FRAZER MEETS WITH NEW SRSG FOR SOMALIA
--------------


13. (C) After the conclusion of the ICG meeting, A/S Frazer
met privately with newly-appointed SRSG for Somalia
Ould-Abdallah at his request. Ould-Abdallah said that from
previous experience he believed a weak government was better
than none at all, and that despite its weakness the TFG was
the only option.


14. (C) Ould-Abdallah said Darfur and Somalia are UNSYG Ban
Ki-moon's top priorities in Africa, and that he would press
for similar levels of engagement on the two conflicts. He
noted that there are "too many actors" within the
international community on Somalia and that this leaves the
international community vulnerable to manipulation by
Somalis. Ould-Abdullah said that one of his first challenges
would be to ensure coordinated messages from the
international community. He also said that he would be in
Washington at the beginning of October for meetings at the
World Bank and would welcome the opportunity meet with USG
officials on Somalia.


15. (C) A/S Frazer discussed her concerns about Eritrea's
role as a spoiler, seeking to destabilize Somalia through
support for terrorists and extremists. Bringing in members
of the opposition in Somalia is important, she said, but so
is a commitment by all parties to non-violent dialogue.
Ould-Abdallah noted that Saudi Arabia could play a more
positive, constructive role in Somalia, particularly in
influencing former members of the Council of Islamic Courts,
and said that he plans to seek a more constructive Saudi role
in consultations with Saudi government officials.

A/S FRAZER WITH SANGUINI - ICG BECOMING UNWIELDY
-------------- ---


16. (C) The previous evening, A/S Frazer met Italian DG for
Africa Armando Sanguini to review the situation in Somalia
prior to the full ICG meeting. Sanguini outlined Italy's
thinking on "the new scenario" for Somalia following the
conclusion of the NRC, which includes judging the TFG based
on its public comments during the NRC, particularly those of
President Yusuf, as well as attempting to split the unity of
the group in Asmara. A/S Frazer questioned the international
community's lack of leverage to date over the TFG and
emphasized the need for a united voice against extremists and
terrorists in Somalia, particularly the radical al Shabaab
militia. A/S Frazer and Sanguini discussed possible options
for downsizing the ICG and creating more effective mechanisms
for international engagement in Somalia, including the
possible establishment of an informal core group of the U.S.,
UK, Norway, and Italy or, as suggested by AU Peace and
Security Commissioner Said Djinnit, institutionalizing a
facilitating framework with a UN/AU lead supported by other
ICG members. A/S Frazer also said that AU Commission Chair
Alpha Oumar Konare had recently informed her that he planned
to appoint a new Mogadishu-based Special Envoy for Somalia.


17. (U) A/S Frazer has cleared this message.
SPOGLI