GCC ASSISTANT SECRETARY GENERAL FOR POLITICAL

S E C R E T RIYADH 000966

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PLEASE PASS TO NEA/ARP FOR SWALKER/BSHUKAN




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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KISL KNNP SA
SUBJECT: GCC ASSISTANT SECRETARY GENERAL FOR POLITICAL
AFFAIR FEARS REGIONAL NUCLEAR ARMS RACE, HAS NO CONFIDENCE
IN IRAQI PM MALIKI

CLASSIFIED BY: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION MICHAEL GFOELLER FOR REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D).


1. (S) SUMMARY. GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC) ASSISTANT
SECRETARY GENERAL FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS DR. ABDULKARIM HAMADI

SIPDIS
TOLD POLOFF ON APRIL 24 THAT HE FEARS A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE IN
THE MIDDLE EAST AND IS CONFIDENT THAT IRAN WILL PROCEED WITH
A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM. HE SAID INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE
COULD FORESTALL IRAN'S PLANS, BUT INSISTED U.S. ENGAGEMENT IS
KEY TO ACHIEVING THIS. HAMADI SAID THE GCC'S EFFORTS TO
ESTABLISH A NUCLEAR PROGRAM FOR PEACEFUL PURPOSES IS NOT IN
RESPONSE TO IRAN'S ACTIVITIES. HAMADI WAS SKEPTICAL OF IRAQI
PM NOURI AL-MALIKI'S ABILITY TO EFFECT A "NATIONAL"
GOVERNMENT AND WAS NOT HOPEFUL THAT THE CURRENT IRAQ



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GOVERNMENT WOULD BE SUCCESSFUL. HE ENCOURAGED GREATER U.S.
ENGAGEMENT WITH IRAQ'S NEIGHBORS, INCLUDING SYRIA AND IRAN.
END SUMMARY.


2. (S) GCC ASSISTANT SECRETARY GENERAL FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS
DR. ABDULKARIM HAMADI TOLD POLOFF ON APRIL 24 THAT THERE IS
GREAT CONCERN WITHIN THE GCC REGARDING IRANS EFFORTS TO
INCREASE ITS REGIONAL "FOOTPRINT," ESPECIALLY IN THE CONTEXT
OF ITS EFFORTS TO DEVELOP A NUCLEAR PROGRAM. HE WAS EMPHATIC
THAT THE IRANIANS CANNOT BE TRUSTED, SAYING THEY ROUTINELY
UTILIZE "TAKIYA," LYING THAT IS CONSIDERED ACCEPTABLE (IN
SHIA ISLAM) IN THE INTEREST OF SELF-PROTECTION/PRESERVATION.
HE STATED BLUNTLY THAT THERE IS NO QUESTION IRAN WILL
DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS IF THEY ARE ABLE TO DO SO. HE
CONTINUED THAT THE ONLY HOPE OF FORESTALLING THIS DEVELOPMENT
-- WHICH HE CONSIDERS CATASTROPHIC FOR THE REGION -- IS FOR
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO ENGAGE WITH IRAN, NOT ISOLATE
IT. HOWEVER, HE ADDED, THE U.S. IS KEY TO THIS EFFORT.
WITHOUT U.S. ENGAGEMENT OF IRAN ON NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION, HE
INSISTED, IRAN WILL NOT BE CONVINCED TO CEASE ITS ACTIVITIES



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IN THIS REGARD.


3. (S) "IT ONLY TAKES ONE CRAZY PERSON," SAID HAMADI,
REFERRING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A NUCLEAR CRISIS IN THE
MIDDLE EAST, "SO WE NEED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
PREVENT A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE IN THE REGION." ALTHOUGH CLEARLY
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY, HE SAID THAT THE THREAT IS
NOT IMMINENT BECAUSE IT WOULD TAKE YEARS TO DEVELOP A NUCLEAR
ARMS CAPABILITY. HE POINTED TO ISRAEL, CLAIMING THAT IT TOOK
MANY YEARS FOR IT TO DEVELOP ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM.
HOWEVER, HE EMPHASIZED THE NEED FOR ANY NUCLEAR PROGRAM TO BE
CONDUCTED WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS
AND TREATIES, AS WELL AS IN CLOSE CONSULTATION WITH THE IAEA.
"WE DO NOT WANT A CHERNOBYL HERE," HE STATED.


4. (S) TURNING TO THE GCC'S PLANS TO IMPLEMENT A NUCLEAR
PROGRAM FOR PEACEFUL PURPOSES, HAMADI ARGUED THAT IT IS NOT
THE FIRST STEP TOWARD DEVELOPING A NUCLEAR WEAPONS
CAPABILITY. HAMADI REPEATED -- ALMOST VERBATIM -- WHAT SAUDI
MFA REPRESENTATIVE FOR INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AMBASSADOR



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HAZIM KARAKOTLY TOLD POLOFF ON APRIL 23 -- THAT IT IS
NECESSARY FOR GCC COUNTRIES TO DEVELOP ENERGY ALTERNATIVES
AND EMBARKING ON A NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS THE LOGICAL WAY TO DO
THAT. BOTH EMPHATICALLY STATED THAT THE DOWN-RANGE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITY BY GCC COUNTRIES
IS NOT THE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE. KARAKOTLY AND HAMADI POINTED
OUT THAT THE GCC AND SAUDI ARABIA ARE CONSULTING CLOSELY WITH
THE IAEA ON THIS ISSUE, NOTING THAT IAEA DIRECTOR GENERAL
MOHAMMED EL-BARADEI PUBLICLY AND POSITIVELY COMMENTED TO THE
SAUDI PRESS ON APRIL 12 ABOUT THESE EFFORTS.


5. (S) HAMADI CONTINUED THAT HE IS SKEPTICAL OF IRAQI PM
NOURI AL-MALIKI'S ABILITY TO EFFECT A "NATIONAL" GOVERNMENT,
DESCRIBING THE CURRENT IRAQI GOVERNMENT AS "IRANIAN."
CALLING THE IRAQ CRISIS A "COMPLICATED SITUATION," HE POINTED
TO WHAT HE CALLED A "FLAWED" CONSTITUTION THAT DOES NOT
ADEQUATELY PROTECT IRAQS MINORITIES, DISPUTES OVER THE
EQUITABLE DISTRIBUTION OF OIL REVENUES, AND EXCESSIVE IRANIAN
INFLUENCE AS KEY FACTORS IN THE ONGOING VIOLENCE. HE STATED
THAT THE MALIKI GOVERNMENT CANNOT HAVE ANY CREDIBILITY AS A



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NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BECAUSE IT IS SECTARIAN AND MEMBERS OF
MILITIA GROUPS HOLD KEY MINISTRY POSITIONS. HE AGREED THAT
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THE SHI'A MAJORITY TO BE APPROPRIATELY
REPRESENTED IN THE GOVERNMENT, BUT IMPLIED THAT THE CURRENT
ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF SHI'A VERSUS THE NUMBER OF SUNNIS



IN IRAQ ARE NOT ACCURATE.


6. (S) HAMADI STATED THAT THE GCC WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE
CURRENT IRAQI GOVERNMENT SUCCEED, BUT WAS NOT HOPEFUL. HE
EMPHASIZED THAT TO SUCCEED, THE IRAQIS NEED ENHANCED DIALOGUE
WITH ALL INTERNAL FACTIONS, AS WELL AS WITH NEIGHBORING
COUNTRIES. ADDITIONALLY, SAID HAMADI, THE CONSTITUTION MUST
BE REWORKED TO ENSURE ADEQUATE PROTECTIONS FOR IRAQ'S
MINORITIES. HE FURTHER INSISTED THAT THE U.S. MUST "COME
DOWN HARD" ON THE MALIKI GOVERNMENT TO ENSURE IT IMPLEMENTS A
PROGRAM OF NATIONAL RECONCILIATION, ADDING THAT IT IS
IMPERATIVE FOR THE U.S. TO CONTINUE TO CONSULT WITH IRAQ'S
NEIGHBORS. CONTINUING THAT THE U.S. CLEARLY DID NOT HAVE A
FULL UNDERSTANDING OF THE "DEPTH OF CULTURE" OR THE



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CONSEQUENCES OF MILITARY ACTION IN IRAQ, HE EMPHASIZED THAT
PAYING MORE ATTENTION TO THE VIEWS OF NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES
WOULD BE INVALUABLE IN HELPING TO DETERMINE THE BEST COURSE
OF ACTION FOR ADDRESSING IRAQ'S PROBLEMS. HE SUGGESTED THAT
THE ENGAGEMENT OF "NEUTRAL PARTIES" IN IRAQ WOULD ALLOW THE
U.S. TO STEP BACK. REFERENCING THE IRAQ STUDY GROUP'S
RECOMMENDATIONS, HE INDICATED THAT IRAN AND SYRIA COULD BOTH
HAVE A POSITIVE INFLUENCE ON THE SITUATION IN IRAQ. HOWEVER,
HE CAUTIONED, THERE NEED TO BE DISCRETE, "STANDALONE"
INCENTIVES FOR THEM TO DO SO.


7. (S) COMMENT: KARAKOTLY AND HAMADI ECHOED WHAT WE HAVE
HEARD FROM OUR OTHER SAUDI INTERLOCUTORS -- OFFICIALLY AND
UNOFFICIALLY -- THAT THERE IS GREAT CONCERN ABOUT IRAN'S
NUCLEAR AGENDA. HOWEVER, ALTHOUGH THE SAG'S OFFICIAL
POSITION IS THAT THE GCC'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM WOULD BE ONLY FOR
PEACEFUL PURPOSES, THERE ARE SOME WHO HAVE EXPRESSED
SKEPTICISM THAT THIS IS THE CASE. BOTH KARAKOTLY AND HAMADI
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT IRAN'S OVERARCHING OBJECTIVE IS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS A REGIONAL SUPERPOWER AND DEVELOPING A



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NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITY IS AN OBVIOUS WAY TO DO SO.
OFFICIAL INSISTENCE THAT THE GCC COUNTRIES WILL ONLY EMBARK
ON A PEACEFUL PROGRAM FAILS TO OBVIATE THE FACT THAT
IMPLEMENTING ANY NUCLEAR PROGRAM -- PEACEFUL OR OTHERWISE --
PROVIDES GCC COUNTRIES FAR BETTER "POSITIONAL PARITY" WITH A
NUCLEAR-CAPABLE IRAN. END COMMENT.
FRAKER