SAG MFA ANNAPOLIS OBSERVER REPORTS CONFERENCE A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 002404

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SA
SUBJECT: SAG MFA ANNAPOLIS OBSERVER REPORTS CONFERENCE A
SUCCESS ON MANY FRONTS


Classified By: Political Counselor David Rundell
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Western
Department Director Dr. Riyadh Krimley, who attended the
November Annapolis conference with Foreign Minister Prince
Saud al-Faisal, told PolOffs during a December 1 meeting that
the conference was a success in working towards peace on
several issues: Israel-Palestinian conflict, the Golan
Heights dispute, the Lebanese elections, and Iranian regional
influence, particularly regarding Syria. Although the SAG
was offended by the Syrian and Iranian public statements
about the conference, Krimley stated that it was the actual
participation of Syria that told the real story. Other Saudi
and Arab interlocutors also commended Annapolis and were
positive about the prospect for peace-- the first in a long
time-- in the region. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Ministry of Foreign Affairs Western Department
Director Dr. Riyadh Krimley, who attended the November
Annapolis conference with Foreign Minister Prince Saud
al-Faisal, told PolOffs during a December 1 meeting that the
conference was a success on many fronts. According to
Krimley, prior to Annapolis the SAG's primary goal was to
gain an Arab consensus to attend the conference-- an obvious
success-- with the next goal being to ensure that the talks
continue. He then stated that the outcome indicated good
faith negotiations will take place in the coming weeks,
however, the SAG contends that Israel "must give Abbas
political capital in order to maintain goodwill with his
people." Without this capital-- such as a decrease in
checkpoints and a stoppage of Israeli settlement activity in
the West Bank-- he said that Palestinian President Mahmoud
Abbas will "lose face" with his people, causing him to
potentially lose his presidency or at least to be able to
uphold any negotiated positions.


3. (C) After stating the SAG's position, Krimley shared his
unofficial views-- namely that the conference was also a
success on the Iranian and Syrian fronts. He explained why,
in his opinion, it was critical that Syria participated in
the peace process: (1) Syria is the main actor that can
negatively affect the peace process in the long run; (2) if
Golan Heights becomes a priority for Syria, then other
issues-- specifically Lebanon and Iran-- are kept on the
proverbial back-burner; and (3) if Syria successfully
negotiates with Israel and the West for the Golan Heights, it
would be in exchange for their alliance with Iran. Krimley
continued that Syria is looking for dialogue with the United
States, and the Golan Heights issue is a mutually beneficial
starting point for breaking Iranian ties. He also noted that
the Lebanese political parties looked to Annapolis to save
their election process. In his opinion, the positive steps
taken following the conference-- the announcement that the
Lebanese Army Chief is now the "agreed upon" candidate-- was
a direct result of seeing the positive steps towards Syrian
dialogue with the West.


4. (C) Krimley concluded, stating that the SAG was
"offended" by the "rude" Iranian-Syrian statement predicting
the failure of the conference and condemning the Arab
participants. However, he said that what the Syrians and
Iranians publicly remark is most often actually opposite from
what happens in private. He added that King Abdullah is very
frank in his discussions with foreign heads of state.
According to Krimley, King Abdullah has been blunt before
with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and will be so
again the next time that they communicate.


5. (C) Krimley's sentiment was shared by both official and
unofficial interlocutors alike. An official from the
Institute of Diplomatic Studies told PolOff during a December
1 conversation that the role of Syria in Annapolis was one of
the most significant benefits to come out of the conference
and is the one that will pave the way for the most change in
the region-- particularly as it concerns Iran and regional
security issues. Likewise, a professor from the Islamic
Affairs Department at King Saud University commented to
PolOff on December 1 that the Annapolis conference was widely
seen as a success, and that the negative publicity that Saudi
Arabia received for their unwillingness to shake hands with
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was unwarranted because
they were at the forefront for Arab participation-- the key
for a successful conference.


6. (C) Additionally, several unofficial Saudi and Lebanese
interlocutors told PolOff during conversations following
Annapolis that they strongly supported the conference and
were hopeful that the broad participation would pave the way
for positive long-term negotiations. The Lebanese
interlocutors also spoke of their confidence in the

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conference-- because of Syrian participation-- that it will
ensure peaceful domestic elections in the coming weeks.


7. (U) The local press echoed these positive sentiments.
Media reporting described the conference as a last chance,
effort and a real opportunity for both parties. The press
underscored regional hopes of achieving real progress before
the end of 2008, reported on the FM Saud Al-Faisal,s refusal
to shake hands with members of the Israeli delegation, and
noted the key Saudi role. Moderate Al-Jazirah daily
suggested in a November 28 editorial, "Israel has lost many
opportunities of peace. If Israel does not make use of the
peace opportunity offered by the Arab countries, it will
never have security and peace by force." Conservative Okaz
editorialized on November 28, "That the Arabs agreed to
participate in Annapolis shows that they are committed to
peace as a strategic option." Under the headline "The
Meaning of the Saudi Participation," conservative Al-Madina
daily wrote on November 28 that FM Prince Saud Al-Faisal,s
refusal to shake hands with Israeli delegation members was
"to show that the conference was not for normalization."


8. (U) The media prominently featured the Saudi role in the
conference, best summarized in an Al-Watan editorial on
November 28, "The Kingdom's attendance at Annapolis was to
enhance its leading strong role for moderate Arab
powers...The Kingdom will not lead Arabs to put pressure on
the Palestinians if they reject a proposal or
concessions...its position would be to support the
Palestinian position."


9. (C) COMMENT: The official and unofficial outlook in
Saudi Arabia on the prospect of peace in the entire region
seemed to improve as a result of the Annapolis conference and
renewed activity in the Peace Process. END COMMENT.
GFOELLER