SAUDI AMBASSADOR TO THE US ON IRAN, SANCTIONS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 002322

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ENRG PTER SA
SUBJECT: SAUDI AMBASSADOR TO THE US ON IRAN, SANCTIONS

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MICHAEL GFOELLER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) A
ND (D)


1. (S) Summary: In remarks November 20 to the Charge'
d'Affaires, Saudi Ambassador to the US Adel al-Jubeir adopted
a very harsh tone on Iran. Al-Jubeir asserted that Iran is
behind most of the difficulties facing the US and Saudi
Arabia in the region at present. He claimed that recent
US-Iranian talks in Baghdad had strengthened the Iranian
regime in its belief that the US position in the region is
weakening and US influence is in decline. He added that it
is unlikely that any economic sanctions imposed in the near
term will be enough to prevent Iran from developing nuclear
weapons. He called such a development a "catastrophe" for
Saudi Arabia. He added that only greatly enhanced
cooperation by Russian and China would give sanctions a
chance of working, but noted that both the US and the kingdom
would have to take ambitious steps to entice Russia and China
into supporting much tougher sanctions on Iran. End Summary.


2. (S) On November 20, Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the US
Adel al-Jubeir invited the Charge d'Affaires and Staff
Assistant (note taker) to his Riyadh residence for lunch.
The Ambassador told the Charge that now is the time to
"confront Iran." He said that Iran has been behind most of
the difficulties that both the Kingdom and the US have faced
in the region in recent years. Unfortunately, "No one has
stood up to them yet." While admitting that the US has begun
to counter Iranian efforts at destabilization effectively in
Iraq, al-Jubeir suggested that the US has yet to move
effectively to counter Iranian interference in the broader
region.


3. (S) Al-Jubeir claimed that recent US-Iranian talks in
Baghdad have only emboldened Iran, since they have sent a
signal of US weakness. "Two years ago was the time to talk
to Iran," he asserted, "not now." The Saudi ambassador
recalled that Iran, ever since the 1979 revolution, has
responded to strength and firmness, rather than conciliation.
"Khomeini ended the Iran-Iraq when you accidentally shot
down a civilian airliner headed to Dubai," he claimed,
adding, "the Iranians said to themselves that the Americans
had had enough, and so they stopped."


4. (S) "The position of the King is very clear on Iran,"
al-Jubeir said. King Abdullah believes that only a show of
US strength will stop Iran's expansionist policies and halt
its nuclear program, he said, adding that the program is
clearly intended to produce nuclear weapons. He noted that
the King rejects the argument that military action against
Iran will coalesce popular support around President
Ahmadinejad. "He believes that the opposite will happen,"
the Saudi ambassador said.


5. (S) Al-Jubeir added that the Saudis hope that
Ahmadinejad's allies will lose the Iranian parliamentary
elections in the Spring of 2008. He will then become a "lame
duck," he said. "Will this make him easier to deal with or
more dangerous?" al-Jubeir asked. "We do not know," he added.


6. (S) He also expressed skepticism regarding the ability
of economic sanctions to prevent Iran's acquisition of
nuclear weapons. In al-Jubeir's view, Iran could have the
capacity to build a bomb in as little as three years, since
Tehran already possesses 3000 centrifuges. He noted that the
Saudi authorities are afraid that the upcoming change of
administrations and the US election cycle will give the
Iranians just enough time to complete mastery of the nuclear
fuel cycle. Al-Jubeir added that economic sanctions, at
least in their current form, would probably not be enough to
stop Iran's rapid progress toward a nuclear weapon.


7. (S) That said, he admitted that much tougher sanctions
might work. The Saudi ambassador said that the two biggest

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obstacles to stopping Iran's nuclear program through harsher
UN sanctions are Russia and China. On Russia, Ambassador
al-Jubeir said that, "We need to flatter Putin." He added
that, "The Russians want to be treated like the superpower
they think they are. From Putin's point of view, he is the
leader of the second most powerful country in the world, and
yet America lectures him on human rights and elections." He
said that gaining Russian cooperation on sanctions against
Iran would require putting such concerns aside and focusing
on the essential thing, which is stopping Iran from acquiring
nuclear weapons. He also advised adopting a similar attitude
toward China, in order to gain its cooperation on Iran.


8. (S) Al-Jubeir noted that Saudi Arabia can do its part by
"bribing" Russia and China to support tougher sanctions
against Iran. The Kingdom can offer Russia both energy
cooperation and business deals, in order to compensate it for
any losses it may sustain by downgrading its economic
relationship with Iran, he said. "We can do such things,
but we cannot offer the Russians acceptance and respect," he
said, adding, "only you can do that." He also asserted that
"pressuring China" to do such things as revalue the Chinese
currency and curtail human rights abuses will not further the
cause of sanctions, either. "Strong relations with China,"
said the Ambassador, "could be the key in stopping Iran from
getting a nuclear weapon."


9. (S) Comment: As a senior royal advisor for the last eight
years and a close confidant of King Abdullah, al-Jubeir's
views usually track those of the Saudi monarch closely. His
remarks indicate that Saudi anxieties regarding Iran's
nuclear program are growing, and that the Saudi government's
confidence in the ability of current economic sanctions to
alter Iranian behavior remains limited. That said, he seemed
also to believe that much tougher sanctions might work,
especially if Russian and Chinese support for them could be
acquired, albeit at a high price. End Comment.
GFOELLER