ANOTHER "HOLY" PEACE AGREEMENT IGNORED: SOMALIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIYADH 002034

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO XW SO SA
SUBJECT: ANOTHER "HOLY" PEACE AGREEMENT IGNORED: SOMALIS
SIGN PEACE DEAL LAST WEEK, CONTINUE FIGHTING THIS WEEK


Classified By: Political Counselor David Rundell
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) In one of dozens of attempts to end the sixteen-year
civil war, Somali leaders signed a peace agreement on
September 16 in the presence of King Abdullah and Crown
Prince Sultan during the final session of the Somali
reconciliation conference in Jeddah. The reconciliation
conference was initially held in Mogadishu for the current
Somali government and thousands of civic leaders-- only the
final session was held in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, a
simultaneous peace conference is being held in Eritrea by the
Islamist-led opposition because the 191 member-strong
opposition banned the Mogadishu reconciliation conference.
The opposition groups were not signatories to the Jeddah
agreement. The Somali leaders who did come to Saudi Arabia--
including the Somali President Abdullah Yusuf, Somali Prime
Minister Ali Mohammed Gedi, and Somali Parliament Speaker
Adam Mohammed Nur-- first visited the holy cities of Mecca
and Medina in order to pray and to take an oath for
implementing the final resolutions, before signing the peace
agreement in Jeddah.


2. (U) According to media reports, King Abdullah told the
delegates that "by the Grace of God, an agreement has been
reached in this holy month and this will close the bloody
chapter and open the road to a bright future." Saudi media
editorials commented on the complexity of the Somali
situation given tribal allegiances, continually evolving
conflict, mixed messages from its neighbors and the West, and
the difficulty in solving the conflict "overnight." These
editorials also noted Saudi Arabia's recent role in regional
peace-brokering-- and how it ultimately has failed in each
circumstance.


3. (U) Two weeks after this landmark agreement, fighting
continues in Mogadishu and the Islamist opposition continues
to strategize in Asmara, according to various media sources.
Reports about weak and understaffed Ugandan peacekeeping
troops continue to publicize the lack of commitment from
African and Arab countries for a strong, stabilizing
peacekeeping force. There have been no commitments from the
Arab States for additional peacekeepers in Somalia.


4. (C) SAG Ministry of Foreign Affairs official told Poloff
on September 26 that the SAG was very concerned about
regional security and stability and therefore resolving the
conflict in Somalia was in the SAG's national interest. He
was optimistic that the agreement would hold, but added that
we should know for certain in another month or two. Even if
the effort to make peace was likely to fail, he said that it
was the SAG's duty to assist the Somalis as the Custodian of
the Two Holy Mosques and because of the resources it has at
its disposal.


5. (C) COMMENT: Given the SAG's lack of involvement in the
entire reconciliation process, and the fact that the violence
did not cease following the signing of the agreement, it does
not seem likely that this agreement will carry any more
weight than previous agreements. However, despite the
disappointment of the Mecca Accord, Saudi Arabia has stepped
out yet again unilaterally to use its position as the
Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques in an attempt to persuade
fighting factions to come to peace. END COMMENT.
FRAKER