THE APPEARANCE OF BOLD ACTION, LOOKING FOR A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000906

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV LG
SUBJECT: THE APPEARANCE OF BOLD ACTION, LOOKING FOR A
LATVIAN PM

Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: The process of forming the next Latvian
government took a not entirely unexpected turn on December 12
when President Zatlers decided to consult with potential
candidates for Prime Minister from outside the party
structure. Although Zatlers seems interested in doing
something unexpected and pick a PM from outside politics, we
judge it unlikely that he has the political muscle or the
stomach for the protracted struggle that would likely be
required to secure parliamentary confirmation for such a
person. End summary.


2. (U) Following the formal resignation of PM Aigars Kalvitis
on December 7, President Valdis Zatlers began consultations
with three individuals from within the political system,
local government minister Edgars Zalans (People's Party),MEP
Valdis Dombrovskis (New Era),and interior minister Ivars
Godmanis (First Party/Latvia's Way). Godmanis was not
formally nominated by his party but given his role as an
elder statesmen in Latvia he stayed in the race to "serve if
needed." From the start, it seemed that Zatlers favored
Dombrovskis, who was leading public opinion polls and would
bring New Era into government. Zatlers also announced that
he preferred a government that could get the support of all
five "center-right" (read, ethnic Latvian) parties in
parliament. He met with all the candidates twice, asking
them to submit detailed action plans for their governments
and goals for the first 100 days.


3. (C) In looking at Dombrovskis, Zatlers was swimming
against the tide. The current four party coalition was happy
to stay together and would add New Era only under their
terms. New Era leaders told us that in negotiations with the
current coalition, it was made clear that the four parties
had enough votes in parliament to pass any legislation even
if New Era did not support it. New Era leader in parliament
Dzintars Zakis asked rhetorically in a meeting with us, "Why
would we take that deal? Be tarred in association with
corrupt elements in the current coalition, be blamed for
economic problems we did not cause, and be able to be
outvoted in the government?"


4. (C) Then attention turned to Zalans. Young, relatively
fresh (he had served as mayor until moving to the cabinet in
November) but from within the People's Party, which still has
the plurality of seats in parliament. However, in his maiden
press interviews, Zalans did not impress. His answers did
not convey gravitas or mastery of issues and his stock fell.
Zatlers also had to know that selecting Zalans would only be
taken by the media and elites as proof that Zatlers was a
tool of the People's Party.


5. (C) Godmanis then started to look good. He would easily
command the support of the current four parties in the
coalition, but being an unofficial candidate it would allow
the President to seem more independent. In fact, sources
within the coalition had been praising him all along, noting
his experience and previous service as PM. The reason he
dropped down, it seemed, was instance from People's Party.
One MP from People's Party told us that in a meeting of the
party's parliamentary faction on Dec. 5, the majority of MP's
agreed that it would be best for People's Party not to put
forward the next PM, but Kalvitis came in and told the MP's
that they were "weak" and they needed to defend the party.


6. (C) The morning of December 12, Godmanis looked likely to
be named that day. Then the President summoned three
individuals from outside politics for meetings: former chief
of staff to President Vike-Freiberga Martins Bondars, former
Ambassador to the US and NATO Aivis Ronis, and head of
chamber of commerce Andris Berzins. All three were at pains
to say that they were not candidates for the PM post
(although Bondars and Ronis had earlier been named to us by
journalists and political figures as possible candidates).
The President then announced he would consult with the five
center-right parties on Dec. 14, after returning from signing
the Lisbon treaty, about the possibility of a non-party
candidate for PM. Initial public reaction from the political
parties to this idea has ranged from lukewarm to cold.


7. (C) Comment: Our assessment is that Zatlers is looking for
a way to do something unexpected and demonstrate his
independence from the political classes. But we don't
believe he has the political acumen or personal fortitude to
pull it off. He has limited his options at every turn,
saying that he wanted to meet with all the candidates which
let the parties decide who those should be, then saying that
he favored a five party coalition which strengthened the
parties' hands, and then planning to consult only with the
five Latvian parties (the same ones he wants in coalition)
about a non-political candidate, which meant he took the 23

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votes of the ethnic Russian parties and the three
independents off the table. In his attempts to distance
himself from the parties, Zatlers has only strengthened them.
He has not explored creative ways to get to the 51 votes
needed to endorse a new government. If he does name someone
from outside politics, or even Dombrovskis, the four parties
that make the current coalition could and likely would block,
further weakening the President's political standing.
Additionally, it seems unlikely that he has plan b, c, and d
ready if his first choice were to fail. Yes, he has the
ability to call for the dissolution of parliament but we know
from his chief of staff that he is reticent to do so because
he fears that ethnic Russian parties would do well if new
elections were held. Additionally, a dissolution requires a
referendum and if the minimum numbers of voters did not
participate (very likely in winter) or rejected the dismissal
(unlikely) Zatlers himself would be removed from office. To
date, Zatlers has not shown the fortitude for that kind of
political showdown. Most likely Zatlers will go through the
motions of looking for something unexpected, but go with the
tried and true. Godmanis seems the most likely choice, but
we aren't so sure that we would be willing to stake anything
on it.
BAILEY