LAVROV VISIT DEC. 18? KALVITIS TO STAY UNTIL DEC.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000872

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS EUN RS LG
SUBJECT: LAVROV VISIT DEC. 18? KALVITIS TO STAY UNTIL DEC.
20?

REF: A) RIGA 831 B) RIGA 837 C) RIGA 821

Classified By: Charge d'affaires a.i. Stuart M. Seldowitz. Reason: 1.4
(D)


1. (C) Summary: Russian FM Lavrov will likely visit Latvia
December 18 to exchange instruments of ratification on the
Latvian-Russian border treaty. As a result of this and other
events, it seems likely that PM Kalvitis will resign as
planned on December 5 but stay in caretaker mode through
December 20 when a new government could be approved by the
parliament. The process of coalition building continues but
there is still no clear front runner for the post of PM. End
summary.


2. (C) MFA U/S for bilateral issues Edgars Skuja briefed
pol/econ chief November 21 that he had just come from a
meeting with Russian Ambassador Kaluzhny in which the two
sides had agreed in principle on a December 18 visit by FM
Lavrov to Riga, which has been scheduled and rescheduled
several times in recent months (ref A). The main purpose of
this visit, the first by a Russian FM since the restoration
of Latvian independence, would be the exchange of instruments
of ratification of the Latvia - Russia border treaty. Skuja
expected several other bilateral agreements could be signed
and Lavrov would meet with the President, PM, and Speaker of
Parliament. The Russian side has also indicated a
willingness to consider the laying of flowers at the Freedom
Monument (built in the 1930's),which is considered part of
the "standard package" for any high level visit to Riga.
Skuja also noted that this timing for the visit meant that
the constitutional court ruling on the treaty (due no later
than November 30) would be issued in advance of the exchange
of instruments of ratification and expressed optimism that
the court's ruling would be positive.


3. (C) Later that same day, Peteris Ustubs, foreign policy
advisor to PM Kalvitis, confirmed the December 18 date and
said that this was influencing the date of Kalvitis'
departure from office. Ustubs said that Kalvitis would
submit his resignation on December 5 as announced but no
longer expected that the Saeima (parliament) would vote on a
new government the next day (ref B). Instead, he thought
Kalvitis would stay on as head of a caretaker administration
with December 20 as the new target date for parliament to
vote on a new cabinet. Ustubs explained that this would
allow Kalvitis not only to see through the border treaty, but
also to sign the EU reform treaty in Lisbon. News that
former President Vike-Freiberga could be chosen at the
December European Council to head a panel on the future of
the EU (septel) was another reason to delay establishment of
the new cabinet. (Note: On November 22, Saeima officially
announced that it would meet on December 20 for its last
session of 2007. It had previously been expected to recess
after December 13. End note.)


4. (C) There has been little hard news on the process of
government formation (ref C). The current four party
coalition has invited center-right New Era to join
discussions, but insiders in the coalition and in New Era say
that it is far from certain that New Era will join the
government. New Era itself remains internally divided on the
issue, with party founder and former PM Einars Repse
reportedly strongly opposed to the idea and favoring
continued efforts to get President Zatlers to dissolve the
paliament. Two coalition members, Kalvitis' Peoples Party
and nationalist Fatherland and Freedom, hold party congresses
November 24 and the outcomes could have an effect on
coalition formation. Finally, Zatlers himself has thrown a
spanner in the works by saying that he believes that
candidates for the position of PM should debate publicly
prior to his asking one of them to form the next government.


5. (C) Comment: If the on again-off again Lavrov visit
happens December 18, it would finally allow for the
completion of the process of the border treaty. That and the
simple fact that no Russian FM has visited Latvia would make
it noteworthy. If Vike-Freiberga is selected to head this
panel, the two events would allow Kalvitis to leave office on
a somewhat higher note. Keeping the current cabinet, even in
caretaker mode, through December 20 seems to us a likely
possibility. Not only does Kalvitis want to see some of
these items through to the end, but the coalition formation
process is taking a little longer than expected when he first
announced his intention to resign. Right now it is anyone's
guess whether the current four-party coalition will expand to
five with New Era. The devil will be in the details,
specifically ministerial postings and economic policy. This
weekend's party congresses have as much potential to confuse
the situation as to clarify it. Zatlers' call for public
debate through the political leadership for a loop. They
preferred a quiet, back room process to select the next PM --

RIGA 00000872 002 OF 002


just like the one that chose Zatlers in May -- but the
President seems to be asserting a little independence in this
regard. It will be interesting to see how long it lasts.
SELDOWITZ