Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07RIGA865
2007-11-21 12:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Riga
Cable title:  

A/S FRIED'S VISIT TO RIGA

Tags:  PREL PGOV MARR MOPS NATO RS LG 
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PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHRA #0865/01 3251236
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211236Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4535
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 RIGA 000865 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS NATO RS LG
SUBJECT: A/S FRIED'S VISIT TO RIGA

Classified By: Charge d'affaires a.i. Stuart M. Seldowitz. Reason: 1.4
(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 RIGA 000865

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS NATO RS LG
SUBJECT: A/S FRIED'S VISIT TO RIGA

Classified By: Charge d'affaires a.i. Stuart M. Seldowitz. Reason: 1.4
(d)


1. (C) Summary: CFE and domestic political developments were
key topics in the visit of EUR A/S Dan Fried to Riga October
25 - 26. The Latvians warmly welcomed his assurance that on
CFE the USG would pursue a policy of "nothing about you
without you" in talking with Moscow and that any
consultations with Russia on Baltic accession to CFE would
only come after discussions within NATO. On domestic
politics, A/S Fried heard a number of theories on what was
behind recent developments in Latvia and concerns by some
political leaders about the role Ambassador Bailey's recent
anti-corruption speech had played in the current situation.
Latvian interlocutors expressed strong support for MAP for
Georgia at Bucharest, enlargement of NATO by three countries
(if they meet performance standards),and continued support
for the ISAF mission. On Russia, A/S Fried strongly praised
Latvian efforts to improve bilateral relations, including the
signing of the Latvia/Russia border treaty, and provided his
views on the difficulties of managing a transition in an
authoritarian country. The Latvians also raised their desire
not to be left behind as we move forward on expansion of the
visa waiver program. End summary.


2. (U) EUR A/S Dan Fried visited Latvia October 25 and 26 for
the purpose of attending a meeting of political directors
from Nordic and Baltic countries in the e-PINE format. In
addition to the e-Pine meetings (septel),Fried met with
Latvian President Zatlers, PM Kalvitis, FM Pabriks (on his
last day in the office),MFA State Secretary Penke, and MOD
State Secretary Rinkevics. He also met the leadership of the
Latvian anti-corruption bureau, KNAB, and had a roundtable
with academic experts and a number of press interviews.
Charge and pol/econ chief (notetaker) accompanied throughout.

CFE
--------------

3. (C) Having just come from a meeting in Berlin with

Russian arms control negotiator Antonov, CFE was a major
topic on the visit. A/S Fried outlined in all meetings with
GOL officials that Antonov had expressed a desire for early
consultations with the Baltic states on their accession to
the A/CFE treaty. Fried explained that he was clear with
Antonov - the Balts would first have the opportunity to
consult within NATO before talking with the Russians and that
the Baltics could have anyone else from the alliance in the
room with them when they engaged in talks with Moscow.
Antonov said he understood both points. Fried cautioned that
continued Russian intransigence on the flanks and the
political environment meant that Moscow could well move ahead
with its "suspension" of the treaty on December 12, but that
he wanted to show that the Allies had attempted to meet
Russian concerns in good faith.


4. (C) All Latvian officials welcomed these assurances that
there would be no talks about them without them and that
there would be consultations within NATO before going to the
Russians. They also showed some flexibility from previous
positions with MOD State Secretary Rinkevics hinting that the
Latvians were willing to drop their insistence on the use of
the term "contingency planning" at NATO, provided they got
political consultations and that any numbers developed for
their national and territorial ceilings be based on military
analysis of the potential threats to Latvian security and the
response that would be needed to meet those threats. (Note:
MFA State Secretary Penke continued to use that term, but we
believe Rinkevics more accurately reflects GOL policy on this
issue. End note.) Rinkevics later, in conjunction with MFA
poldir Klava, proposed that PM Kalvitis, during his upcoming
visit to Washington, raise with Secretary Rice a request for
bilateral U.S. assistance in developing these plans and
analysis to inform Latvian thinking on CFE. Fried supported
the idea, while noting it might make sense to do it with all
three Baltic States jointly, which Rinkevics seemed open to
doing. In his meeting with Penke, Fried noted that it was
ironic that Russian demands on greater specificity from the
Baltics on CFE would actually force more discussion within
NATO of how to defend the Baltics and we should think how to
play on this for our advantage.

Russia and Energy
--------------

5. (C) PM Kalvitis briefed Fried with evident pride on his
success at "restarting a political dialogue" with Russia over
the past two years, recalling his various meetings with
then-PM Fradkhov and President Putin. The Latvia-Russia
border treaty was the capstone of this process and the PM
hoped that instruments of ratification would be exchanged
soon. Fried expressed strong U.S. support for the treaty and
that it did nothing to alter our view of the continuity of
the Latvian state. Kalvitis predicted that energy would be
the main political issue in the Baltics in the next 10 - 20

RIGA 00000865 002 OF 004


years. To date, relations with Russia on energy had been
good, but looking at Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia he could
see how it could easily change. Latvia and its neighbors
need to diversify energy supplies and reduce reliance on
Russia. In this context, he lamented that "Lithuania is
playing games with Poland" over the construction of a new
nuclear plant to replace Ignalina.


6. (C) MFA State Secretary Penke, highlighting improvements
in the bilateral relationship with Russia, said he wanted to
get Moscow to see that Latvia is stable and solidly in the
NATO and EU camps. This would ease Russian pressure on
Latvian internal issues, he said. EU integration would draw
Latvia's Russian population away from Moscow and give them a
greater stake in Latvia. Business interests would still be a
draw to the east, though. FM Pabriks also raised concern
about Russian economic influence in Latvia saying he didn't
want to see Latvia "fall back" to old relationships with
Moscow. Fried noted that he had discussed with the
Hungarians a committee, modeled on what we have in the U.S.,
to scrutinize foreign investments in strategic sectors as a
way to address Latvian concerns in this area.


7. (C) Penke also asked what role Russia was playing on Iran.
Fried said it was unclear. Russia seemed to be staking some
sort of middle ground; not fully with the rest of the
international community, but not fully on the side of the
Iranians. Penke said that sensed "great nervousness" among
EU FM's on Iran at the October GAERC, which he attended.


8. (C) In a somewhat different approach, President Zatlers
expressed concern about Russian intentions in Latvia saying
"we are aware of Russia's interest in destabilizing us" and
saying that Russia had been unusually quiet in recent months,
which he found very disturbing. Fried noted that Latvia is
much stronger now and Russia seemed more focused on Georgia.
Nevertheless, he stressed that Russia uses corruption, money
and oligarchs to influence policy in other countries, so the
best way to address this was to have strong institutions.

Visas
--------------

9. (C) Latvia's hope that it will be able to join the visa
waiver program quickly was raised in most of Fried's
meetings. PM Kalvitis said it was a political question and
there was some competition among the Baltic States on this
issue. He said that rumors that Estonia would be admitted
first caused concern and followed on Canada's 2006 decision
to waive visas for Estonians ahead of the other Balts. Penke
also raised it, saying that Latvia hoped it could "move
forward" with the other central European states hoping to
join the program. Fried noted the President's personal
commitment to the issue and hoped for further flexibility
from the Congress on bringing in new members.

Restitution
--------------

10. (C) Noting the difficulties with Jewish property
restitution in Latvia in a lunch with MFA leadership, Fried
stressed that it was important to have one policy that
applied equally to all people. When State Secretary Penke
said the GOL was looking at a way to address Jewish communal
property while setting aside heirless private property for
now, Fried said that was understandable. FM Pabriks offered
a blunt assessment of the state of play on the issue. The
PM, he said, did not have strong opinions either way, but
former PM Skele did. The PM's chief of staff, Maris
Riekstins, follows Skele's lead on this issue. Pabriks
acknowledged that the government did not handle the issue
well when they took the heirless private property bill to
parliament in November 2006. He said that PM's office and
the Jewish community should form a committee to decide the
way forward, especially on communal property. (Comment: This
is rather disingenuous. Exactly such a committee agreed on
the deal that parliament rejected in 2006 after pressure from
Skele. The local community has made clear they are not
interested in another committee absent some tangible display
of commitment from the government first. End comment.)

Bucharest Agenda
--------------

11. (C) All GOL officials with whom A/S Fried met expressed
Latvia's strong support for granting MAP to Georgia at
Bucharest. Fried reviewed the challenges on this within the
Alliance and said it was essential that the Georgians get a
positive message from the summit; otherwise they might do
something stupid and the Russians something dangerous.
Latvian officials said that they hoped to have the broadest
enlargement possible, depending on performance. A/S Fried
asked the Latvians to engage with Skopje to urge them to take
a more constructive approach on the name issue.


12. (C) MOD State Secretary Rinkevics provided an extensive

RIGA 00000865 003 OF 004


outline of the remainder of Latvia's agenda for Bucharest.
He said leaders should reaffirm a commitment to
transformation but rather than announce anything new, we
should focus on making current projects work. Specifically,
the NRF should be used rather than "left in the garage," the
strategic airlift consortium should move ahead and HOSG
should reaffirm a commitment to spend at least two percent of
GDP on defense. ISAF had shown the need for better
cooperation between various organizations, which led
Rinkevics to muse that too often the same country will take
one position in NATO and another in the EU, which he found
especially frustrating. He also asked whether NATO should
consider updating the strategic concept. On the last point,
Fried responded that we too were thinking about the strategic
concept, but it needed to be looked at in the context of
opportunities with the new French leadership and was
therefore a sensitive subject.

Domestic Politics
--------------

13. (U) A/S Fried visited during a time of political
turbulence in Latvia. Just prior to the visit PM Kalvitis
had survived what were, in effect, two confidence votes in
parliament. In all his meetings, Fried stressed that the USG
does not take sides in Latvian domestic politics and that
while we stood for good governance and against corruption, it
was up to the people of Latvia to decide by whom and how they
would be led.


14. (C) In a one-on-one meeting with Fried, PM Kalvitis
expressed concern about Ambassador Bailey's October 16
anti-corruption speech. The PM felt that the tone of the
speech was overly harsh and while he accepted that some of
the criticism was true, he was especially upset that the
Ambassador had, in his opinion, urged people to take to the
streets in opposition to the government. Kalvitis
acknowledged that his planned Oct. 31 - Nov. 1 visit to
Washington came at an awkward time, but claimed the speech
had prevented him for cancelling, saying that the Ambassador
had backed him in to a corner and if he cancelled, he would
be accused of mishandling the relationship with the United
States.


15. (C) Upon arrival for a meeting with the President's Chief
of Staff, Fried was invited to meet with President Zatlers.
Looking at political events, the President said that it was
clear that government needed to do a better job communicating
with the people and explaining policies and decisions. He
also raised concerns about the Ambassador's speech, saying
that "instability on the streets needs to be avoided" and
expressing concern that a crisis in government could allow
ethnic-Russian based parties to come in to government.
Zatlers termed this possibility "a disaster" saying that the
loyalty of the ethnic Russian population to the state is
unclear. He said that U.S. help was needed to project
confidence and keep people calm. Using a Latvian proverb,
the President said that Latvia could only carry two
watermelons at a time and adding a third would cause
everything to fall. In this context, the priority in Latvia
needed to address economic issues, which requires internal
and external confidence. The priority should be passing the
budget and only then thinking about possible changes in the
government. Fried responded that the President had an
important role to play in times of political difficulty and
needs to be "the voice of the nation." He added that the USG
supports principles, not parties, and that we try to find a
balance between defending values and interfering in domestic
matters. Fried assured the President that he did not want
Latvian domestic politics to be on the bilateral agenda.
Afterwards, the President's Chief of Staff, Eduards Stiprais,
added that the President was concerned that the Ambassador's
speech could open the way to increased anti-Americanism in
Latvia, pointing to an interview by a former minister that
claimed that the U.S. Embassy often "squeezes (local
politicians) like lemons."


16. (C) At the center of the domestic political debate has
been the anti-corruption bureau (KNAB). Fried met with the
leadership of the agency, including suspended director
Loskutovs. Loskutovs provided a very professional brief on
the history of the agency and its activities, stressing the
strong cooperation with the United States. He noted that
KNAB was working on a number of difficult cases included
financing of political parties and corruption allegations
against politically influential individuals. He did not at
any point raise his own situation. Fried responded that we
supported the work of the KNAB, but did not have a view on
individual cases. He added that it was important to ensure
that all cases were handled professionally and on the basis
of the law, not politics, with which Loskutovs fully agreed.


17. (C) A/S Fried also met with outgoing FM Pabriks on his
last day in the office. Pabriks, who resigned as foreign

RIGA 00000865 004.2 OF 004


minister over the government's handling of the Loskutovs
matter, spent most of the meeting talking about domestic
politics. He said that the problem was that there was
alienation of the public from the political leaders and that
parties did not have the trust of average people. He said
there is a new generation coming up in Latvia, not defined by
age but by experience. Pabriks said he and PM Kalvitis were
of the same age, but had very different outlooks because in
the 1990's Pabriks was studying Denmark and Germany while
Kalvitis was in politics here. Now the western-educated and
more outward looking generation was ready to assume political
power, but had to contend with the influence of the "three
backseat drivers" in Latvian politics. He said that these
individuals' control over key economic assets in Latvia held
back the country's development. (Note: Although names were
never used, it was clear he was referring to former PM Andris
Skele, Ventspils mayor Aivars Lembergs, and Transport
Minister Ainars Slesers. End note.) Pabriks said that when
he as exploring the possibility of running for President
earlier in the year, he was told by a businessman linked to
the party that he needn't bother with the PM, but instead
approach the two individuals who would "really make" the
decision (Lembergs being in jail at that point). Pabriks
alleged that he was often left on the outside of key party
and political decisions because he "thought differently"
(i.e. was more western in orientation),but couldn't be
thrown out because he was so popular among the voters. He
said that his resignation as FM had surprised the party
bosses, who did not think he would take such a step. He said
he would stay in People's Party for now, but made clear he
was actively considering how long he would stay in the party.


18. (C) Pabriks said that the generation change in Latvia
would bring about a new political alignment in Latvia, one in
which ethnic issues would be less defining, but outlook and
perspective would be determinative. He added, though, that
he did not believe the President should begin the process to
dismiss the parliament and call for new elections. Referring
to the Ambassador's speech, Pabriks described it as "not so
terrible," which he explained meant OK. He said he was
uncomfortable with the instruction from the PM to call
Secretary Rice and register Latvian concern in advance of the

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speech. He said that while the speech was "on the limits" at
several points, it did not trigger instability or any
marches. The Latvian people's frustration with government
actions and inflation led to people marching. He recalled
some protests in 1987, which the Soviets claimed were
triggered by an American speech and he thought it unbecoming
to make a similar accusation in this case.

Press
--------------

19. (U) Assistant Secretary Fried,s visit was both well
covered and well received by local Qs he gave extensive
interviews to two major newspapers (the most important
Latvian language daily Diena and a leading Russian language
press outlet Business&Baltia). He also appeared on Latvia,s
most popular television morning news program, the LNT
channel,s 900 seconds. In his appearances A/S Fried
emphasized U.S. support in the fight against corruption,
Latvia,s crucial role in the NATO alliance and he extolled
the virtues of Latvia,s participation in the missions in
Afghanistan and Iraq. Responding to questions about the
Ambassador,s recent speech, he repeatedly stated that it
represented the views of the U.S. government and that
corruption is an issue all governments need to address.
Commenting on the Latvian-Russian border treaty, he said that
it was a good step in the bilateral relations for both
countries and did nothing to change the U.S. views on the
continuity of the Latvian state.


20. (U) A/S Fried has cleared this cable.
SELDOWITZ