LATVIA/RUSSIA: LAVROV TO RIGA? AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIGA 000591

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2017
TAGS: PREL PBTS RS LG
SUBJECT: LATVIA/RUSSIA: LAVROV TO RIGA? AND
INTERGOVERNMENTAL COMMISSION


Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: Russian FM Lavrov has proposed coming to Riga
September 17 to exchange instruments of ratification on the
Latvia-Russia border treaty. The GOL is cautiously agreeing
to this, although it could lead to public protests if the
constitutional court has not yet ruled on the treaty's
validity by that time. The recent Latvia-Russia
intergovernmental commission was most notable for the fact it
happened, rather than any concrete results. The Latvians
feel there is an added pragmatism to the relationship, but
remain cautious, knowing that Moscow's mood could change at
any moment. End summary.


2. (C) Ambassador Bailey met with FM Pabriks August 3 and
Pabriks confirmed what we have been hearing -- that he had
spoken to Russian FM Lavrov on July 31 about the border
treaty and Lavrov was willing to come to Riga September 17 to
exchange instruments of ratification on the treaty. (Note:
The Russian Duma has yet to vote on the treaty, but the
Russians tell GOL that this will happen early in September.
End note.) Pabriks said that if the visit comes before the
Latvian Constitutional Court rules on the constitutionality
of the treaty, there could be some political protests, but he
was prepared for that. Separately, we have heard that the
GOL is pushing the Court to advance the date for its initial
ruling on the treaty, currently rumored for September 28.


3. (C) The previous day, MFA U/S Skuja had previewed this
development to A/DCM in a meeting. Skuja said that it was
remarkable that when Pabriks tried to call Lavrov, he was
able to get the call in under 30 minutes when it usually
takes days. Additionally, when Lavrov offered to come to
Riga and Pabriks suggested dates, the Russian MFA confirmed
the Sep. 17 date in under an hour. Skuja said he felt that
"higher level political forces" had already been at work on
this. Skuja added, though, that because the Duma had yet to
act and because of the track record with Moscow, the GOL
would not announce the visit until much closer to the date,
although he expected Russian Ambassador to Latvia Viktor
Kahluzhny to leak it within days.


4. (C) Skuja also briefed on the Latvia-Russia
intergovernmental commission meeting held July 20 in Riga.
He said that the most important aspect was that it happened
at all, after years of negotiating to get the commission
established (finally agreed last October) and months of
perceived Russian foot dragging on setting a date for the
first meeting. He said that the meeting had two principle
concrete outcomes: agreement by the Russian side to move
forward on completing a treaty on double taxation (which
Skuja cautiously hoped might even be signed during a Lavrov
visit) and agreement to create a new subgroup of the
commission to deal with border crossings (there is currently
a delay of several days for trucks to cross the border into
Russia).


5. (C) While describing the meeting as business like and
constructive, Skuja said that the Russians continue to raise
several difficult issues. In particular, they want to open a
Russian cultural and information center in Riga, they want
access to tenders for the Latvian state energy company's
projects on terms equal to EU member states, and they want to
amend a 1994 agreement with Latvia on protection of Soviet
war graves to also include protection of Soviet war
memorials. Skuja said all of these are non-starters for the
Latvian side. The next meeting of the full commission would
likely be early in 2008, although the various working and sub
groups would continue to meet before then and Skuja hoped
that it might be possible to focus on more achievable
outcomes.


6. (C) Comment: It is never easy to explain why
Russian-Latvian relations are as they are on a certain date
or to predict what will happen in the future. The idea of a
Lavrov visit came as a surprise to the Latvians, at least in
terms of times and seeming Russian eagerness to make the
visit, so they are cautious. They don't want to get the
blame if it doesn't happen, and don't want egg on their face
if they get too far out in front. Similarly, they are happy
to have the structure of the intergovernmental commission,
but are frustrated that the Russians don't want to address
what the Latvians view as long standing problems like
arrangements for people receiving pensions from both
governments the continued difficulties in border crossings.
But the Latvians know that they have to keep plugging away at
the relationship and find practical areas of cooperation
where possible.
BAILEY