LATVIA'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - A TRAGIC-COMEDY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIGA 000411

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR LG
SUBJECT: LATVIA'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - A TRAGIC-COMEDY
IN THREE ACTS

REF: A) 06 RIGA 792 B) RIGA 322 C) RIGA 392 D) RIGA 402

Classified By: Charge d'affaires Tamir G. Waser. Reason: 1.4 (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: Latvia's Saeima (parliament) will vote
May 31 for a new President to replace Vaira Vike-Freiberga as
she completes eight years in office. The outcome remains
unclear. The coalition candidate, Valdis Zatlers, has no
political experience, has been underwhelming in press and
public appearances, and is dogged by allegations that as a
physician he took payments from patients beyond his normal
fees. The opposition candidate, Aivars Endzins, has a much
stronger political background, but by virtue of being the
opposition candidate, faces considerable odds. The most
likely outcomes are either a Zatlers victory or forcing a new
round of voting with an opportunity for new candidates. No
matter the outcome, the process shows the weaknesses of the
Latvian political system where loyalty to a coalition,
despite its own internal problems, remains the most
significant qualification of any candidate for any office.
The continued general apathy of the Latvian public to
political developments only fosters these tendencies, which
have potentially negative consequences for U.S. interests,
especially in the area of rule of law. End summary.

Prologue - Parliamentary elections


2. (U) When Latvians voted last fall for a new Parliament,
everyone knew that electing the next president would be a
major task of the new legislature (ref A). While there was
some discussion of this among the chattering classes, it
played no discernable role in the election outcome. Only one
party, center-right New Era (JL),even made it a campaign
issue when they announced that former FM and EU commissioner
Sandra Kalniete would be its presidential candidate. Other
parties all disparaged the idea of naming a candidate so
early.

Act I - Going through the motions


3. (U) At the beginning of 2007, with a new four-party
governing coalition in place, the press and some politicians
began to suggest that it was time to consider who would be
the next president. The coalition said it was premature,
professing concern that early nominations would only lead to
attacks on the potential candidates and saying it was unwise
to subject candidates to too much public scrutiny. President
Vike-Freiberga attempted to move the process by suggesting in
late January a package of laws and constitutional amendments
to regulate the process and ensure that candidates are known
and can be publicly vetted in advance. Vike-Freiberga,
herself a surprise candidate in 1999, had some credibility in
raising this issue, but was ignored by the coalition who saw
her as a lame duck. However, once she began the process of
submitting the amendments to the security laws to a
referendum, the politicians took notice and quickly passed
legislation to regulate the presidential election process
(ref B).


4. (C) At the end of April, the People's Party (TP),largest
of the coalition parties, nominated the PM's chief of staff
and former Ambassador to Washington, Maris Riekstins, as its
candidate for President. His selection, however, hinged on a
last minute change of heart by PM Kalvitis who had been
backing Regional Development Minister Aigars Stokenbergs for
the post. Following Stokenbergs' speech to the party,
Kalvitis suddenly announced that Riekstins was the better
candidate and the party fell in line. The union of Latvia's
First Party and Latvia's Way (LPP/LC) on May 12 nominated
deputy speaker of parliament Karina Petersone for the
presidency, after the more popular Interior Minister Ivars
Godmanis and Family and Children's Issues Minister Ainars
Bastiks withdrew from consideration. Other coalition members
Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and Fatherland and Freedom (TB/LNNK)
declined to put forward candidates of their own. TP strongly
backed Riekstins. So strongly, in fact, that many observers
wondered whether they knew from the start he could not win
and was simply a straw man. LPP/LC barely gave lip service
to Petersone, with party leader Ainars Slesers at one point
suggesting that she did not need to meet with other parties
because the coalition leadership would decide on the
coalition candidate rather than the members of Saeima.

Act II - The real candidates emerge


5. (C) Unable to agree on either Riekstins or Petersone as a
coalition candidate, coalition leaders came to agreement on a
common candidate over the weekend of May 19, with the
decision formally announced on May 21. Valdis Zatlers, a
physician with no political experience except a short stint
in the National Front in the late 1980's, was the choice to

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lead Latvia (Ref C). It is telling that members of
Parliament, who would be asked to vote for him, did not have
a chance to meet him until after the coalition announced its
choice. Zatlers immediately stumbled in press interviews
where it was clear he did not have a developed political
philosophy and seemed uncomfortable in the press spotlight.
Furthermore, his admission that as a doctor he had accepted
additional payments for services beyond his fees and did not
declare this income on his taxes underscored how quickly he
was rushed out as a candidate. While such payments are
common practice among Latvian doctors, the more liberal
(anti-government) press harped on this as behavior unworthy
of a potential head of state. Nevertheless, the coalition
felt good because Zatlers and Kalniete were the only
candidates formally nominated and everyone believed that
Kalniete would have a hard time getting even JL's 18 votes.


6. (C) As the period for nominating candidates was closing,
left-leaning, ethnic Russian-based Harmony Center filed the
nomination of Aivars Endzins, former head of the
Constitutional Court, and a respected member of Latvia's
legal community (ref D). The coalition was caught flat
footed as Endzins clearly had the political experience that
Zatlers lacked and did not meet the definition of a "radical"
candidate that the government would have expected Harmony
Center might nominate. Endzins was given a further boost
that same evening, when Kalniete withdrew from the race on
national TV and threw her support to Endzins. The coalition
attacked Endzins publicly for his role a member of the
Communist Party and Secretary of the party chapter at the
Latvian University in Soviet days (despite having been a
leader in the movement to restore Latvia's independence).
Endzins has not aggressively campaigned in the few days since
his nomination.

Act III - May 31 in parliament


7. (U) Barring any more surprises (which we would not rule
out),Saeima members will vote on May 31, choosing between
Zatlers and Endzins. In the first round, both names will be
on the ballot and members will vote for one by secret ballot.
If neither candidate gets 51 votes, the one with the most
votes will stand alone in a second round of voting. If at
any point a candidate receives 51 votes, he is elected
president. If no one receives 51 votes, the process starts
anew, with the possibility for new nominations, and another
vote to be held the week of June 11.


8. (C) At this point, it seems highly unlikely that Endzins
could get the 51 votes needed for victory. Zatlers is an
open question. If the vote were truly free, we do not think
he could win and new elections would be held. But the
coalition is pulling out all the stops to ensure victory.
Coalition MP's are being lobbied hard and opposition MP's and
journalists both believe that coalition MP's will be asked to
use their cell phones to photograph their "secret" ballots to
show their leaders that they voted the "right" way. Knowing
that they cannot get the full 58 votes for Zatlers (one TB
member has said she will not vote for him, but also not for
Endzins),one coalition source told us that Leopolds Ozolins
may be wheeled in from the hospital, where he is recovering
from a massive stroke. Ozolins may not be able to speak or
walk, but he should be able to vote.

What does it all mean?


9. (C/NF) If this process were a play or a movie, it would
make for great entertainment. The twists and turns have been
unexpected and, at times, unbelievable. Unfortunately, it is
not a play, but the process for choosing the head of state of
a NATO ally and EU member state. There is no question that,
having won the election and formed a government, the
coalition is entitled to pick a president that it feels best
for the job. Unfortunately, by any rational measure, their
definition of best applies not to the state's interests but
to themselves. One observer said last fall that the criteria
for the next president would be "someone who signs any piece
of paper put in front of him" rather than making the kinds of
difficult choices that Vike-Freiberga has in her eight years
in office. Zatlers seems to be such a person. With no
defined political philosophy to guide his decisions, and
credible reports that his staff has already been selected for
him from among coalition lackeys, there would be a
significant weakening in the already tame constitutional
powers of the office. The attempts to amend the security
laws this spring, stopped when Vike-Freiberga used her
last-ditch constitutional authority for the first time, were
the first serious indication of attempts by the coalition to
use its powers to defend its interests, defined as staying in
power and protecting its financial backers. But it followed
an attempt to put patently unqualified judges on the

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constitutional court that was barely rebuffed by parliament.
As one leading journalist said, the only political difference
that Zatlers and Endzins expressed since their nominations is
that Zatlers believes there are no oligarchs in Latvia, while
Endzins says there are. In the end, this journalist said,
that may be the most important issue in this race. We agree.


10. (C/NF) In terms of U.S. interests, it is hard to see that
either candidate would espouse a significant change in
foreign policy because there is general political consensus
on those issues. The issue for us, though, is whether Latvia
continues and accelerates some worrying trends in terms of
rule of law. But perhaps the most significant, and most
disturbing, thing about this race has been the general public
apathy. No one you talk to on the street is happy with the
process but most seem resigned to it as "normal politics."
That barely 16 years after the restoration of independence,
Latvians see this process as the normal course of democracy
is probably the element that should concern us most.
WASER