LATVIAN PLANS ON IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000165

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2012
TAGS: MOPS PREL EAID NATO IZ AF LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN PLANS ON IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN

REF: 06 RIGA 1056

Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: Recent decisions by the UK and Denmark to
draw down their troops in Iraq, and suggestions that
Lithuania may do the same, have had little impact in Latvia.
The GOL continues with its plan, developed last fall and
extensively briefed to partners, to make the current rotation
of combat troops in Iraq its last, consistent with the
handover to the Iraqis of responsibility for security in the
areas where Latvian troops operate. When the current unit
returns to Latvia in July, Latvia will retain a small number
of personnel in MNF-I in headquarters positions and in the
NATO training mission. Latvia plans to increase the number
of troops in Afghanistan, but op tempo and logistical
shortfalls mean that the largest increase in troops may not
occur until early 2008. Resource constraints and political
realities make it unlikely that Latvia will alter this plan.
End summary.


2. (C) Latvia currently has about 110 combat troops in Iraq,
serving with the Polish MND in Diyawaniyah. Latvia has
participated in OIF since 2003 and in that period, three
Latvians have been killed. The most recent casualties were
in December, when two soldiers were killed by IED while on
patrol (reftel). Last fall, as the Poles began to plan for
the handover of security responsibilities to the Iraqis,
Latvia saw a possibility to reconfigure its contribution to
OIF. Frustrated at working with the Poles and noting the
importance to NATO of the ISAF mission in the context of the
NATO summit in Riga, the GOL decided it would send one last
combat unit to Iraq and thereafter shift its efforts to ISAF.
The unit currently deployed in OIF will return in July.
Before announcing this decision, a Latvian delegation flew to
Warsaw to brief the Poles and coordinate with them on the
plan. The Latvians also feel that in meetings with USG
officials, including when Def Min Slaketris saw then-SecDef
Rumsfeld last July, we have not raised any objections to this
plan and indicated our understanding that their posture in
Iraq would change. The GOL has briefed both parliament and
the public that this will be the last rotation of combat
troops in Iraq, although it will continue to provide soldiers
to MNF-I headquarters elements and participants in the NATO
training mission in Iraq (NTM-I).


3. (C) The Latvians currently have 26 soldiers in ISAF
serving as part of the Norwegian PRT in Maymana. They plan to
increase that number to 72 by the end of August. They are
willing to deploy as many as 150 troops to ISAF if the right
fit can be found. The Latvians are willing to supply
uncaveated troops and to serve in the south of the country,
but for reasons of logistical support needs they need a
partner nation and, thus far, have been unable to find one
that would allow them to serve in the south. The logistical
realities of shifting the focus of efforts from Iraq to
Afghanistan means that it will likely be early 2008 before
Latvia could have its full deployment in ISAF.


4. (C) While increasing its military contribution to ISAF,
Latvia is considering how to better contribute to the whole
of government approach in Afghanistan that we have been
advocating in NATO. Beginning later this year, Latvia will
provide the political advisor to the head of the Norwegian
PRT (although they are having some difficulties identifying a
mid-level diplomat willing and able to serve in Afghanistan).
Latvia will also provide the assistance and development
coordinator for the PRT. MFA sources tell us that they will
look to find additional money in their budget to increase
their development assistance in Afghanistan (without having
to take from their priority countries of Moldova, Georgia,
Belarus and Ukraine). Their recent NATO non-paper on
building an information sharing database in Afghanistan
(which the Latvians say received an enthusiastic reception
from NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer) highlights the enthusiasm for
this mission within the bureaucracy. Finally, the Latvian
interagency is working to deploy two police officers as part
of the ESDP mission in Afghanistan.


5. (C) Comment: We believe that the Latvians are firmly fixed
on this course. The Iraq deployment remains very unpopular,
with polls consistently showing 80 percent public opposition.
While the vote in parliament last December to renew the
mandate for participation in OIF was quite strong (69 in
favor),we believe that this stemmed in large part from the
fact that the government had already decided that there would
only be one more deployment of combat troops. Additionally,
MOD officials tell us that the Iraq mission, which is carried
out solely by volunteers, has severely stressed the military,
as the deployed unit is cobbled together from among those

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willing to go. In fact, the current unit is short of full
strength by a few soldiers as not enough were willing to go
on this rotation and most of the ones there are on their
second and third deployments. In contrast, the ISAF mission
has much higher levels of public and political support and
many more soldiers are willing to serve there. The ability
to provide political guidance to the ISAF mission as a NATO
member, in contrast to the Iraq mission, is also important to
the Latvians. As the host of the NATO summit in November,
the GOL, and especially President Vike-Freiberga, feels that
Latvia must increase its ISAF contribution. The irony is
that Latvia is willing to provide what many of the European
allies are not - capable, uncaveated infantry troops,
deployable anywhere in Afghanistan. But to do that, they
need a partner nation to assist with the logistical needs for
which Latvia lacks economies of scale. They will likely stay
with the relatively safe Norwegian PRT unless another partner
nation can be found.
BAILEY