LATVIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES SIGNING BORDER TREATY

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2017
TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV RS LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES SIGNING BORDER TREATY
WITH RUSSIA; WILL RUSSIA SIGN?

REF: A) RIGA 92 B) RIGA 53

Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (D)


1. (C/NF) Summary: Latvia's parliament voted 69-26 on
February 8 to authorize the government to sign the
Latvia-Russia border treaty. The legislation should become
effective on March 5 and the Latvians have proposed a signing
ceremony in Moscow March 6-7. Following the February 5-6
visit to Latvia of Yevgeny Primakov, the Latvians received
positive indications that Russia is willing to sign, although
they will have to rescind their previous unilateral
declaration that scuttled the planned signing in May 2005 and
reaffirm the Helsinki Final Act's assertion on the finality
of Europe's borders. The Latvians are realistic that they
won't have 100% assurance of Russian plans until the ink is
dry on the treaty. There remains the possibility of a
challenge to the treaty in the Latvian Constitutional Court
by opposition parties, but likely only after it is signed.
End summary.


2. (U) The Saeima on February 8 voted 69-26 to approve
legislation to authorize the government to sign the
long-stalled Latvian-Russian border treaty. This was the
second reading and as the bill was granted urgent status, it
will go to President Vike-Freiberga for signature and
promulgation. Under Latvia's constitution, the earliest date
the law can take effect is March 5 and no delays are
expected. On that date, the cabinet expects to authorize the
Prime Minister to sign the treaty on behalf of the government.


3. (C) The Latvians have told Moscow that they would be ready
to go there on March 6-7 to sign the treaty and that they
would like to have both PM Kalvitis and President
Vike-Freiberga sign the treaty. The Latvians requested that
PM Fradkov and President Putin sign for Russia.


4. (C/NF) The border treaty was the main topic of
conversation in meetings of Latvian government officials with
former Russian PM and FM Yevgeny Primakov February 5-6.
According to MFA U/S Edgars Skuja and the PM's foreign policy
advisor Peteris Ustubs, Primakov initially said that Russia
would not sign the treaty unless the authorizing legislation
referred to the agreement in the Helsinki Final Act on no
change of borders. The Latvians said it was too late to
change the legislation, but agreed to include such language
in the cabinet decision to sign the treaty. Primakov also
said the unilateral declaration from 2005 that scuttled the
last planned signing would need to be withdrawn, which the
Latvians said was already in the plan. Ustubs said this
would also be done at the March 5 cabinet meeting. Following
Primakov's return to Russia, the Russian Embassy in Riga
conveyed that the arrangements discussed were acceptable and
said the Latvians should save the March 6-7 dates for
signing, but did not yet specifically commit to sign.
According to Skuja, Primakov also said that the idea of both
Presidents and Prime Ministers signing would be acceptable to
Moscow. All Latvian officials we talked to cautioned that
with nearly a month to go before the signing, they would not
be surprised if the Russians threw a spanner in the works and
delayed the signing.


5. (C/NF) The Latvian government also has a problem at home.
Opposition party New Era (center-right) has threatened to go
to the Constitutional Court to challenge the treaty on the
basis that it contravenes the constitution by changing
Latvia's 1922 borders (ref b). To mount a challenge, New Era
would need 20 members of parliament to sign a petition to the
court. New Era controls 18 seats and presumably will
strongly pressure all its members to sign. The other two
signatures would have to come from members of the governing
coalition who broke ranks with the government and voted
against the treaty. It is unclear whether those individuals
would take the political risk to sign such a petition.
Former Justice Minister and New Era MP Solvita Aboltina told
pol/econ chief privately that they would file their challenge
only after the treaty was signed. But with public discussion
of this possibility, the Latvians fear Russia could use the
possibility of a court challenge to delay signature.


6. (C/NF) Comment: The Latvians have done their part, now the
question is whether Russia will sign. In fairness, the
Latvians got themselves to this point with their unilateral
declaration in 2005. And while current signs from Moscow are
good, Latvians are realistic in their dealings with Russia
and know that they may go through several ups and downs
before the text is actually signed. The possibility of a
Constitutional Court challenge has the GOL most nervous
because it could lead to a vicious circle. The Russians may
refuse to sign the treaty until the Court rules on the case,
but the Court may refuse to hear the case until the treaty is

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actually signed. The coalition can be expected to exert
maximum pressure to ensure the needed two deputies do not
break ranks, but if Moscow takes a hard line on this issue,
it could stall the process.
BAILEY