BURMA: A REVOLUTION PAUSES - ANGER SEETHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000948

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: A REVOLUTION PAUSES - ANGER SEETHES

REF: RANGOON 941 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: The appearance of normalcy returned to
Rangoon today. Many barricades have been removed from
downtown intersections, monasteries, and the Shwe Dagon
Pagoda. Military and police are stationed throughout the
city, although in fewer numbers. UN Special Envoy Gambari
was whisked to Nay Pyi Taw last night after meeting with Aung
San Suu Kyi and is scheduled to meet with Senior General Than
Shwe on Tuesday morning. Nightly raids on monasteries
continue and several hundred monks and civilians are
reportedly being detained in horrific conditions at an
abandoned University campus in Rangoon. The public mood is a
mixture of fear, depression, hopelessness, and seething
anger. The regime's heavy-handed tactics against the revered
clergy and peaceful demonstrators has turned many of the
politically neutral in favor of the recent demonstrators
while others remain convinced that the government's crackdown
shows the futility of trying to resist the regime. End
summary.

The Situation on the Ground:
--------------


2. (SBU) The appearance of normalcy returned to Rangoon
today. Many shops have reopened and barricades have been
removed from many streets downtown and from the Shwe Dagon
Pagoda. Many monasteries had their gates opened today,
although Rangoon's ubiquitous monks were glaringly absent and
the buildings were eerily empty. We have received reports
that young monks are fleeing Rangoon after being ordered to
leave monasteries. Several sources have told us the army
continues to raid monasteries on a nightly basis, usually
around 2:00 a.m. Before the raids start, army troops occupy
residences surrounding the monasteries to ensure residents do
not look out the windows or go outside to witness the raid.
Troops then move into the monasteries to brutalize,
terrorize, and arrest the monks. Several hundred monks and
civilians are reportedly being detained at Rangoon's former
Government Technical Institute (GTI) in horrific conditions.
According to a woman whose son was randomly detained during a
demonstration, and who gained access to GTI from a
sympathetic policeman, hundreds of monks and civilians are
crammed into each room, with no toilet or sanitary facilities
and no room to lie down and sleep. We have also heard that
many of the monks and nuns from GTI are refusing any food
from the military officers detaining them.


3. (SBU) We also received reports that random raids and
roundups by the military throughout the city took place over
the weekend. Groups of more than five people, including
patrons of prominent teashops and businesses appear to have
been fair game, and many customers were reportedly beaten and
detained without cause. Embassy officers and their contacts
witnessed police and military conducting random searches of
public transportation and detaining people with cameras or
anyone who aroused suspicion. At night, during the curfew,
police and military trucks continue to circulate throughout
neighborhoods announcing that anyone found with pictures of
the demonstrations and the military crackdown will be
arrested. Over the weekend, the army conducted several raids
on the homes and offices of NLD members throughout the
country. In Mandalay, eighty-five NLD members have
reportedly been arrested including prominent NLD leader Win
Win Mya.


4. (SBU) Although we continue to hear rumors of a split
between Senior General Than Shwe and his deputy Maung Aye, we
are unable to confirm them. However, rumors of differences
between the two have circulated for more than a decade.
Rumors that pious Buddhist military commanders are outraged
by the brutality against the clergy and contemplating
disobeying their orders have begun to circulate. In Rangoon,
troops appear organized and disciplined and are carrying out
their orders. So nothing on the surface indicates any
divisions among the military.


RANGOON 00000948 002 OF 002


Little Confidence in Gambari
--------------


5. (C) After his meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi yesterday,
Gambari was whisked back to Nay Pyi Taw by his SPDC minders.
He supposedly has no meetings planned for today, but should
meet with Senior General Than Shwe on Tuesday morning after
which he will reportedly depart Burma via Rangoon. We do not
know yet whether he will meet with diplomats prior to his
departure as he did previously. Meetings with detained 88
Generation Students leaders Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi have
not materialized, to the disappointment of many hopefully
tracking Gambari's visit. Many of the Burmese we spoke to
expressed their lack of confidence in Gambari and the UN's
ability to negotiate a resolution with the Generals. They
feel Gambari's visits are filled with meaningless talk and no
concrete results. Others view him not only as useless, but
as counterproductive, giving cover to the regime's defenders
who point to Gambari's visits as evidence the regime is
trying to cooperate with the UN to resolve the current
crisis. If Gambari is unwilling to stand up to the Generals
even on the matter of his schedule, and successfully demand
meetings with key opposition leaders, Burmese doubt he will
deliver the hard messages the Generals need to hear. Our
Burmese contacts also have commented that Gambari's continued
focus on increasing humanitarian space, rather than on
solving underlying political problems causing the
humanitarian crisis, gives them no confidence in Gambari

Status of the Opposition
--------------


6. (SBU) The mood on the ground in Rangoon is a mix of
seething anger, shock, depression, fear, and hopelessness.
The heavy-handedness of the military's attack on the revered
Buddhist clergy has moved the sympathies of the politically
neutral over to support for the recent protesters. Others
have cited the harsh crackdown as proving the futility of
resisting the military. The sheer overkill of the crackdown
appears to have hardened the resolve of the political
activists who have avoided arrest. They told us they may
stop their demonstrations temporarily to regroup and
strategize, but they remain determined to carry on with
peaceful protests. It remains to be seen how effective the
remnants of the pro-democracy opposition can be. The
military has systematically and efficiently decimated the
movement, jailing almost all key leaders and organizers.
Those lucky enough to escape have gone into hiding. The
NLD's elderly and ineffective leaders remain tellingly free
and deafeningly silent - these men are no threat to the
generals' rule.

The "Roadmap to Democracy"
--------------


7. (C) Comment: The regime's farcical quest for legitimacy
through their "roadmap to democracy" is over. Their brutal
crackdown conducted over the last few days has made clear to
the entire world they derive their power only from the barrel
of a gun. Their brutal tactics against the revered clergy
and peaceful demonstrators has resulted in a palpable change
of public opinion. Those previously neutral towards the
"roadmap to democracy" and politics in general are now
beginning to align against the regime. For now, fear has
enabled the military to restore some semblance of the tenuous
status quo. It remains to be seen how long this can last.
End comment.


VILLAROSA