Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07RANGOON478
2007-05-21 11:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rangoon
Cable title:  

BURMA: DEMOCRACY ADVOCATES GEAR UP TO RALLY PUBLIC

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL BM 
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INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0777
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000478 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: DEMOCRACY ADVOCATES GEAR UP TO RALLY PUBLIC

REF: A. RANGOON 451

B. RANGOON 387

C. RANGOON 335

RANGOON 00000478 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Poloff Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000478

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: DEMOCRACY ADVOCATES GEAR UP TO RALLY PUBLIC

REF: A. RANGOON 451

B. RANGOON 387

C. RANGOON 335

RANGOON 00000478 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Poloff Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The 88 Generation Students and other
democracy activists continue their campaigns to mobilize the
public, with the goal of preparing an effective public
response when the regime unveils its dictated constitution.
Meanwhile, the regime is using its proxy mass-member
organizations increasingly to crack down on peaceful
demonstrators. Disappointed with apparent paralysis among
the NLD leadership and doubtful that Aung San Suu Kyi will be
freed soon, some activists want to press for the release of
imprisoned journalist Win Tin, who they hope would
effectively lead and unite the pro-democracy opposition.
Prominent activist Su Su Nway has been admitted to a Rangoon
hospital. She is under police guard and under the treatment
of her personal physician, and may have initiated a hunger
strike. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Last Sunday, the 88 Generation Students (88GS),
wrapped up their latest campaign, "White Sunday," a series of
weekly visits to the families of political prisoners. The
88GS members staged the program's finale by visiting Aung San
Suu Kyi's cousins on May 20. 88GS leader Min Ko Naing
declared the campaign a success and 88GS spokesperson Jimmy
told us the campaign was designed to "warm up" the public to
prepare them to say "no" when the regime puts its
constitution to a public vote. They will continue to visit
the families of political prisoners to show their support for
those with the courage to speak out against the regime. They
hope to rally opposition to the regime's constitution across
the country to the regime's roadmap and force the regime to
allow a more inclusive process in drafting a constitution and
establishing a democratically elected government.


3. (C) The 88GS do not end this campaign without plans for
another. They informed us that they will issue a message to
China and Russia on May 23 and 23 emphasizing that their
double veto on the Burma resolution in the UNSC emboldened

the regime to increase its harassment of the pro-democracy
opposition. The 88GS also told us that various exile groups
are coordinating demonstrations in front of Chinese and
Russian Embassies around the world for May 30, the
anniversary of the attack on Aung San Suu Kyi's convoy at
Depayin, to protest these countries' support of Burma's
"murderous regime."


4. (C) On May 21 we learned that Su Su Nway has been moved
from a police interrogation center to a Rangoon hospital.
Although she is under police guard and is not allowed
visitors, she is now under the care of her personal
physician. According to a report we have not yet confirmed,
she has initiated a hunger strike. Participants in Su Su
Nway's prayer campaign (ref A) have continued to visit
pagodas. Three participants were reportedly arrested on May
19 while on their way to pray at a pagoda. Others have not
been arrested, although they were watched and photographed.

MORE ACTIVISTS ARE WAITING IN THE WINGS


5. (C) Gan Bee Ya, an activist monk from the Monk Youth
Association told us that a concocted referendum for a new
constitution can be prevented only through a strong public
outcry. He wants to encourage more monks to actively oppose
the regime's constitution. Gan Bee Ya claimed other
activists are waiting for the right moment to act in a
showdown that they believe requires the people of Burma to
take a definitive stand. According to the monk, if the
people do not clearly oppose the regime's constitution, they
must resign themselves to a perpetual military dictatorship.

RANGOON 00000478 002.2 OF 003



REGIME PROXIES DO THE DIRTY WORK


6. (C) Jimmy said it is clear the regime is using its mass
organizations, including the Union Solidarity Development
Association (USDA) and the People's Militia, as their first
line of defense against increasing pro-democracy activities
(ref B). Jimmy believes two key USDA leaders, Minister of
Labor U Thaung and Minister of Industry-1 Aung Thaung, are
behind this plan. Local USDA members, posing as ordinary
citizens, are ordered to oppose demonstrators and White
Sunday participants and even urged to attack them in order to
"maintain community peace." 88GS believes an attack by the
USDA on peaceful activists could instigate the activists'
supporters in the community to counterattack, giving the
regime a pretext to arrest the activists. The 88GS hopes to
avoid this trap.


7. (C) We heard separately from another contact that
twenty-one USDA groups of twenty-five members each have been
established in Rangoon division to crack down on public
opposition movements. The recruits are primarily unemployed
vagrants and were trained in a military training camp in
Hlegu Township. There have also been disturbing press
reports that USDA youth in Mandalay Division were given full
army uniforms, minus weapons, in order to look like soldiers
and confuse and intimidate the public.

WAITING ON THE NLD


8. (C) Following two separate meetings between NLD and the
88GS leaders, Jimmy said 88GS members are increasingly
frustrated over the NLD's reluctance to endorse any specific
plan of action in response to the anticipated roll-out of a
draft constitution (ref A). Recent activities by the 88GS
and other activists have given them a higher public profile
than the NLD, but the 88GS says it wants to avoid eclipsing
the NLD, which it believes still has the mandate of the
people.


9. (C) Chin politician Pu Chin Sian Thang, a member of the
Committee Representing the People's Parliament (CRPP),
expressed frustration to us that the NLD has not yet briefed
CRPP members on a meeting the NLD uncles had with the police
chief on Union Day (February 12) during which the police
chief reportedly told the uncles that the CRPP was an illegal
organization. The NLD's silence has fueled rumors among some
MPs from ethnic parties that the NLD Executive Committee
plans to officially abolish the CRPP as part of some future
deal between the NLD and the regime.

LOOKING FOR A WAY FORWARD


10. (C) Labor rights advocate Aye Myint, founder of Leading
Stars (ref C),said the regime may not reconvene the National
Convention again until 2008. He said regime leaders may be
worried the constitution might not be approved in a public
referendum due to the recent upswing in demonstrations and
the unpredictable political climate. He believes the
regime's current insecurity could bring the regime to the
negotiating table with the opposition. Aye Myint said
Special Branch police questioned him in early May and asked
his advice on how to improve the political climate in Burma.
His discussions with the police gave Aye Myint hope that he
may be able to facilitate negotiations between the regime and
the opposition. He requested to meet political prisoners Win
Tin and Dr. Zaw Myint Maung, two NLD members who have been
imprisoned since 1990.


11. (C) Aye Myint and monk Gan Bee Ya both believe that if
Win Tin were released, he could help the NLD form a more
coherent strategy to move forward, rather than simply working
to keep the party from being deregistered. Both men said it

RANGOON 00000478 003.2 OF 003


might be better to focus on getting Win Tin released rather
than ASSK, because they do not believe the regime will ever
release her. Insisting on her release, they speculated,
might only delay a political solution in Burma. Other
contacts of ours disagree. They believe the regime would not
release Win Tin because he is a charismatic person and
strategic thinker with the same potential to lead the
opposition as ASSK. They also said if Win Tin were released
he could split the NLD, as many NLD members might follow him
instead of the uncles.


12. (C) COMMENT: While the NLD uncles continue to circle the
wagons, with no release of ASSK in sight other activist
groups are beginning to think ahead. They want to mobilize
the public and strategize on the best way to counteract the
anticipated debut of the regime's draft constitution. While
the activists continue their campaigns to convince the regime
to engage in genuine dialogue, they will emphasize the
peaceful and law-abiding nature of their movements to focus
attention on the regime's unlawful and repressive response.
END COMMENT.
STOLTZ