MOROCCAN MINORITY RETURNS EXISTING MAJORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RABAT 001429

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2017
TAGS: KDEM PGOV MO
SUBJECT: MOROCCAN MINORITY RETURNS EXISTING MAJORITY

Classified by Ambassador Thomas Riley for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: A paltry third of the Moroccan electorate
returned the current majority parties in the September 7
parliamentary elections. The vote was fair and transparent.
The low turnout of 37 percent and high number of blank or
protest ballots are a sharp critique of the political
parties, and, less widely acknowledged, of the system that
keeps them powerless. As best as we can tell, however,
support for the King remains strong. Contrary to
expectations, the nationalist Istiqlal came in first, with
more seats than the Islamist Party of Justice and Development
(PJD),which appears to have obtained the highest popular
vote. The PJD has griped about vote buying, but has not
accused the GOM of fraud. On balance, due to their
unprecedented transparency, these elections were a modest
advance toward democracy. We recommend nuanced praise for
the fair and transparent election, while noting the need for
continued reform. Proposed language is in para 11. End
summary.


2. (C) Morocco's September 7 parliamentary elections were
conducted with unprecedented fairness and remarkable
transparency. For the first time ever, a formal
international observation mission was invited to Morocco,
organized by NDI and funded by the USG. They concluded that
the voting "went smoothly and was characterized by a spirit
of transparency and professionalism," notwithstanding reports
of "isolated irregularities." One of the international
observers who also had been here in 2002, said this year's
election was "head and shoulders" better than the last one.


3. (C) Unfortunately, electoral turnout was reported at an
all-time low. Only 37 percent of registered voters cast
ballots, in spite of sustained and energetic efforts by both
the GOM and some elements of civil society to mobilize the
vote. (Both the far left and, implicitly, the dissident
Islamist JCO had called for a boycott.)


4. (C) There was also a very high rate of blank or spoiled
ballots, provisionally said to be around 20 percent (vice 17
percent in 2002). The international observers, noting that
traditionally spoilage is under five percent, were certain
this was a protest vote. One told us that in the polling
station she watched, fully a third of the 150-odd ballots
were invalid, but only three of them by error. The rest were
crossed out across the whole ballot, littered with Arabic
obscenities, or simply blank. The number of protest ballots
equaled or exceeded those for any party.


5. (C) Both low turnout and the high rate of spoiled votes
were identified by the observers as a decisive popular
expression of no confidence - neither in the parliament as an
institution nor in the political parties that occupy it --
including the PJD. Considering the total eligible voter
population, NDI informally noted that only about 19 percent
of eligible Moroccans voted for any political party. The
non-vote does not appear to have been against the King, whose
right-hand man, who recently resigned his office to run for
parliament, easily swept his district.


6. (C) The new parliament will look very much like the last
one. Most prominent incumbents were returned. It will
contain a fractionated mixture of political parties, with the
top five parties holding between 12 and 17 percent of the
seats. 24 different parties will be seated in the new
parliament, two more than in the last parliament, a set-back
for Palace calls for party consolidation.


7. (C) Confounding most expectations, the nationalist
Istiqlal Party came out on top, with 52 seats (out of 325),
two more than they won in 2002. The Socialist USFP was the
biggest loser, down from 50 seats in 2002 to 36 this year.
Many of USFP's major figures lost their seats. The majority
coalition of the previous Parliament will almost assuredly be
reconstituted, this time with Istiqlal at the head.


8. (C) Most significantly, the Islamist Justice and
Development Party (PJD),which had confidently predicted that
it would expand its presence by at least 50 and possibly even
100 percent, ultimately netted only a modest gain of five
seats, ending with 47 out of 325 seats.


9. (C) Clearly stung by this disappointing result, a party

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spokesman cried foul, accusing opponents of vote-buying. "We
came in second, corruption came in first," the party leader
stated. It is significant the PJD did not accuse the GOM of
malfeasance or manipulation of the results. While some
vote-buying likely took place at the local level, it was
driven out or underground by a stern GOM, with the personal
engagement of the King. We assess such activities were much
less than in any previous election.



10. (C) The EU Presidency issued a statement on September 8
praising Morocco's commitment to reform and the "democratic
conditions" in which this year's polls took place. French
President Sarkozy sent a letter of congratulations to the
King.


11. (C) Over the weekend the MFA contacted Embassy Rabat to
press for a positive official statement. We believe the
Department may wish to issue a statement or consider a
Secretarial or even Presidential message of congratulations

SIPDIS
to the King. We suggest the following language:

BEGIN TEXT

We congratulate the Kingdom of Morocco on the parliamentary
elections staged on September 7. The elections were
generally fair and transparent and a positive step towards
reform. Low turnout and a large number of rejected ballots
suggest the Moroccan people seek additional political reform.
We remain committed to supporting the GOM's continued
efforts in this direction.

END TEXT




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RILEY