MOROCCO'S EASTERN PROVINCE UNENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 001395

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MO
SUBJECT: MOROCCO'S EASTERN PROVINCE UNENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
ELECTIONS

REF: A. RABAT 1274

B. RABAT 1248

Classified By: D/Polcouns Ian J. McCary for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: During a pre-election visit to Morocco,s
eastern province emboffs found a broad lack of enthusiasm
toward parliamentary elections, particularly among youth and
women. Youth of the region feel they have no role in the
current political system, and consequently, do not plan to
vote in large numbers. Nearly everyone we met expected
voters, especially rural, to place ballots along individual
rather than party lines. Our discussions revealed that
government efforts are unlikely to root out vote buying and
low-level corruption. International observers are welcomed
and are anticipated to boost the image and credibility of the
elections. The Pro-Berber Popular Movement Union (UMP) and
Islamist Party for Justice and Development (PJD) appear
positioned to make strides in the region. End Summary.

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L'Oriental: New Sense of Confidence
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2. (C) On a two-day pre-election outreach trip to Oujda and
Nador, located in Morocco's eastern province, L'Oriental
(northeast Morocco, bordering Algeria),emboffs met with a
broad range of local political party activists, parliamentary
candidates, business representatives, youth, civil society
leaders, and academics. In spite of criticism that
Morocco,s eastern region has for years been marginalized by
the state, lacking basic infrastructure and investment, we
heard that King Mohammed VI's personal interest has changed
this dynamic. His efforts have injected a new sense of
confidence in to the region, said one prominent businessman.
There are over 150 ongoing projects, we were told. (NB: The
King was on a personal visit to Oujda at the time of our
visit.)

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Participation, But At A Price
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3. (C) In both Oujda and Nador, speculation on the rate of
participation was generally pessimistic. One of Oujda's
parliamentarians and current candidate (RNI party) expressed
disappointment in the government's decision to hold elections
on September 7, arguing that the confluence of vacations,
Ramadan, and the school year would limit voter turnout. A
Chamber of Commerce official reported that fewer than
expected new voters had retrieved their voting cards, which
he believed reflects a lack of interest among the freshly
registered. Similarly, despite party efforts to increase
women's participation, they are unlikely to vote in large
numbers, according to the women's sector coordinator for the
Nador office of the Party for Progress and Socialism (PPS).
Our contacts also predicted youth in the eastern region will
not vote in force.


4. (C) There is widespread belief that most voters,
principally rural, cast ballots for individual personalities
rather than loyalty to a particular party philosophy or
platform, as expressed reftels. Most contacts, including the
founder of a recently established tourism school, agreed that
the rural vote will outweigh the urban. Even current
candidates with whom we spoke were convinced that vote buying
(a small payment or the promise of a future favor) will
continue to exist, but acknowledged that the government's
shift to a single ballot has dampened the effectiveness of
this phenomenon.

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Youth Interested In Politics, Not Voting
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5. (C) Our discussions revealed that youth, while attracted
to politics and current political maneuverings, are
frustrated with political parties who continually make
promises and never produce results. In a lively roundtable
with approximately twenty university-aged Moroccans emboffs
discovered that eastern province youth do not see a role for
themselves in political parties and do not think parties
adequately reflect their interests. Youth feel they can be
most productive joining a local NGO, where they are awarded
responsibilities that generate concrete results. There is a
sense among some Oujda youth that voting is irrelevant until
political parties are more responsible and parliament is

given greater latitude to operate.


6. (C) The largest barrier to youth participation is that
political parties do not communicate in a language youth
understand, feeding apathy, according to an NGO leader and
current PPS candidate. Nonetheless, one Oujda university
professor has witnessed an increase in support for Islamist
associations on campus, including the PJD, since 2002. Most
students, however, do not openly express their political
tendencies, he stressed. Compounding the situation, many
young Moroccans from the region have dreams of a life in
Europe, not in Morocco. (NB: Thirty percent of Moroccans
residing abroad trace their roots back to the eastern
province, according to local estimates.)

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What Has My MP Done For Me Lately?
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7. (C) The average citizen has lost confidence in
national-level politics and expects very little from
parliament or its elected members, according to the Nador
Chamber of Commerce President and former two-term
parliamentarian. In his experience, qualified parliamentary
candidates have opted out in favor of starting local NGOs or
running for local government, where they can have a larger
local impact. In fact, a current parliamentary candidate
predicted larger voter turnout for the 2009 municipal council
elections than for the upcoming parliamentary ballot.


8. (C) There was consensus among those we interviewed that
citizens have a profound lack of understanding regarding the
role and responsibilities of a member of parliament (MP).
Constituents consistently demand results on issues that fall
outside the prerogatives of a MP. A long tradition of not
following through on (campaign) promises has led to
disappointment with parliament, and the political system as a
whole. Similarly, a local NGO leader claimed that
disillusionment with the political system has been fueled by
dim employment prospects; we heard unemployment has reached
as high as thirty percent among youth in the region.

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International Observers Welcomed
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9. (C) On the presence of international observers, every one
of our contacts welcomed the mission and said it will
certainly increase the credibility of elections. Morocco,s
external image will also profit, they said. Despite
international observers and a robust domestic monitoring
effort by local NGOs, the popular view was that vote-buying
and other low-level fraud will remain, particularly among
poorer voters who have something tangible to gain from
selling their vote.

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Comment
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10. (C) Our discussions in Nador and Oujda echoed many of the
themes obtained in preceding election outreach trips to the
Atlas and the Fes-Meknes region. On the whole, the
pro-Berber and traditionally rural UMP party and the Islamist
PJD seem well positioned for Election Day, despite general
turnout concerns. As one contact put it, the PJD is
capitalizing on the growing disparity between rich and poor
in Morocco, and has filled a void in the urban suburbs by
providing a support structure. This phenomenon, however,
does not translate into the rural areas, where a strong PJD
base is less evident. We left with the sense that voter
turnout will be fair, but less than desired, despite the
GOM's considerable efforts to get out the vote. End Comment.


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RILEY