MOROCCAN ELECTIONS: OPTIMISM FROM ACROSS THE ATLAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 001274

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL MO
SUBJECT: MOROCCAN ELECTIONS: OPTIMISM FROM ACROSS THE ATLAS

REF: A. A) RABAT 996

B. B) RABAT 1155

C. C) RABAT 1248

Classified by Polcouns Craig Karp for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary. Econoff and Econ FSN visited the
largely Berber, rural-oriented Atlas and trans-Atlas towns of
Azrou, Midelt and Errachidia preliminary to the September 7
parliamentary elections. Among the business associations,
non-government organizations (NGOs),local government
officials, youth, and parliamentary candidates, met there was
a surprisingly optimistic mood towards the elections,
compared to elsewhere. The most surprising finding was that
nearly everyone interviewed expected strong participation by
young voters. As expected, rural voters plan to participate
at higher rates than urban voters, and place greater emphasis
on who a candidate is than his party affiliation. Most
important to our contacts was a candidate's ability to bring
public works projects to these economically disadvantaged
areas. Several made unsolicited attacks on the (Islamist)
PJD party for trying to manipulate its ties to Islam and its
charity activities. They added that the PJD would do poorly
in their region in the elections. Candidates are
increasingly wary of attempting corruption and vote-buying,
due to several electoral fraud convictions after last year's
upper house elections. End summary.

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IN THE ATLAS
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2. (SBU) Our August 2 visit to the mountain town of Azrou
yielded similar projections for the upcoming elections as
discussed in ref C, which covered several neighboring cities.
We spoke with two candidates, PJD and (socialist) USFP
party, who are currently members of the local Municipal
Council and they expected low to average voter turnout (50
percent, higher in the countryside than the city) due to
general dissatisfaction with government. They added that
voting would follow tribal lines, they welcomed international
election observers, and were confidence that corruption would
be insignificant.


3. (SBU) Both Azrou candidates expected at least 50 percent of
young people to vote, although their reasons for this
differed greatly. The more optimistic PJD President of the
Municipal Council felt progress had been made since the last
election, and he also asked for better relations with the
USG. However, the USFP member, a 36-year veteran of the
Municipal Council blamed the Council's President for
presiding over "the worst council he had ever served on" and
accused the PJD of buying votes to strengthen its place in
local politics. He felt young people would vote in strong
numbers because they were fed up with the poor performance of
the region's current Members of Parliament (MPs). He was
also the first respondent to mention the soon to be familiar
description of an MP's role -- to bring investment/public
works projects to the region.

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TRANS-ATLAS
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4. (SBU) Across the Atlas Mountains, the mood of voters
improved considerably. Representatives from the Chamber of
Commerce and the Agricultural Chamber in Midelt reported high
rates of voter registration and expected 80 percent voter
turn out for the region (higher in the country side) as well
as from young voters. They expected people to vote on the
merit of individual personality rather than party
affiliation, and to start emphasizing the value of an
"educated" candidate. They expected a clean election and
noted the corruption-related expulsion of five Upper Chamber
MPs in 2006 as a watershed event that would help reduce
future electoral corruption. They noted that no one wanted
to risk losing his region's representation in government.
They added that an MPs job is to bring investment to the
region.


5. (SBU) Midelt's President of the Municipal Council
(Istiqal party) seemed to be a role model for this new type
of candidate. Speaking in English and claiming to have made
dozens of visits to the U.S., he said his history of social
activism had led him into politics. He noted three public
works projects valued at over $10 million that he had helped
win for Midelt and added that local people had asked him to
run for parliament because they knew he could help bring more
investment to the area. He said it was not enough to be
elected, one needed to be a member of a major party in order
to have influence with ministers and GOM officials that could
help deliver contracts and investment to Midelt. In an
economically disadvantaged area like Midelt, he said this was
an MP's main role. He added that Midelt had the highest
number of newly registered voters in the province and he
expected 60 to 80 percent voter participation and that young
people would vote in high numbers too. He welcomed the idea
of international election observers and felt the upcoming
elections would be free of corruption.


6. (C) In Errachidia, 300 miles from Rabat, we met with an
MP from the Movement Popular party and 20 of his friends and
relatives. Collectively, they felt 70 percent of young
people in their region would vote, an even higher amount that
the general public. They added that political party
affiliation was not an important criterion if voters know the
candidate could bring public works projects to the area. The
MP admitted to having a long career in General Services and
he knew how to "work the system" for funding. He had
recently changed his party affiliation to the Environmental
Party to better assure that he would be the number one person
on his party's candidate list. Apparently, his former party
had just attracted a new and very popular candidate that
could possibly threaten his standing as the party's top
candidate.

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INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS GOOD, PJD BAD
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7. (C) On August 3, we met with NGO and Chamber of Commerce
representatives, and two additional parliamentary candidates
- the Vice President of Errachidia's Municipal Council and
the President of the Municipal Council from the nearby city
of Erfoud - both representing the RNI party. All continued
the mantra of the importance of bringing public investment to
the region, strong participation by young voters, and
approval of international election observers to discourage
corruption. They added that Errachidia had a sizable
population of university graduates that had remained
unemployed for years, as is common in Morocco's larger
cities, but they were too discouraged to participate in the
election.


8. (SBU) In addition, they said that several people made
unsolicited comments attacking the PJD for what they felt was
the shameless use of charity work to campaign for votes.
They felt it was an affront to Islam and would backfire in
the upcoming elections, although it appears to have worked in

2002. They felt PJD only represented 8 to 10 percent of the
local population and thus far PJD officials had failed to
represent local interests in favor of promoting PJD
interests. Our interlocutors felt the PJD would win no more
than one of Errachidia's six seats in parliament.

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COMMENT
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9. (U) Rural voters appear more optimistic about the
elections than their urban counterparts. This is probably
because in rural areas government contracts for public works
account for a disproportionately large part of economic
activity. Therefore, MPs have a comparatively larger role in
the lives of their constituents. Our interlocutors discussed
very few attributes of candidates other than their ability to
bring public works projects to the region. The expulsion of
five Upper Chamber MPs on corruption charges last year, and
the King's recent call for citizens to take responsibility
for their government by voting seemed to resonate with our
rural audience and help account for their wide acceptance of
international election observers.


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RILEY