KOSOVO: BELGRADE INCREASES RHETORICAL AND OTHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000777

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SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KV UNMIK
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: BELGRADE INCREASES RHETORICAL AND OTHER
FORMS OF PRESSURE AGAINST INDEPENDENCE

Classified By: Chief of Mission Tina Kaidanow for reasons 1.4, (b),(d)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY. Recent statements - public and private - by
Serbian Minister for Kosovo Slobodan Samardzic and others in
the Ministry's hierarchy demonstrate Belgrade's intention to
increase pressure on Kosovo's Serbs to toe the line,
strengthen parallel structures, and -- as a likely outcome --
provoke Kosovo's Albanian majority. Samardzic appeared in
Gracanica November 1 and announced to a gathering of Serbian
parliamentarians and local Serb residents that Belgrade would
appoint "temporary municipal councils" in Serb-majority areas
between the November 17 Kosovo elections and anticipated
Serbian municipal elections in the spring. He also
personally warned Petar Vasic, the moderate mayor of Novo
Brdo, not to participate in the elections, and, according to
another moderate, Bishop Teodosije (protect),appears intent
on ending Serbia's participation in the CoE-led
Reconstruction Implementation Commission (RIC) -- a
successful Kosovo government-funded effort to rebuild
Kosovo's Serb Orthodox churches. Samardzic was also in
Mitrovica November 8 with the Russian Ambassador to Serbia,
warning of "punishment" for Kosovo Albanians if they declared
independence. We will need to ensure that Kosovo's ethnic
Albanian leaders are prepared for -- and will not take
counter-productive measures to protest -- the likely
escalation in provocative action and statements by the
Serbian and northern Serb leadership, while coordinating an
effective international response to any actions by Belgrade
that clearly challenge UNMIK's authority. END SUMMARY.

Samardzic in Gracanica


2. (C) Serbian Minister for Kosovo Slobodan Samardzic
appeared November 1 in the Kosovo Serb enclave of Gracanica,
just outside of Pristina, at a specially-held session of the
Serbian Parliament's Assembly Committee for Kosovo and
Metohija. A readout of the meeting, helpfully provided by
Embassy Belgrade, reports that Samardzic mentioned a Serbian
government plan for reacting to a declaration of
independence, but claimed to be unable to reveal it for
"strategic reasons." Samardzic also announced that his
ministry would open an office in Gracanica and asserted in
blunter terms than usual that the Serbian government would
run parallel government structures for Kosovo Serbs after
final status.


3. (C) In a sign that the Serbian government is increasing
the pressure on Kosovo Serbs to toe the Belgrade line,
Samardzic also indicated for the first time publicly that
Serbia would create "temporary municipal councils" in Serb
areas to function between the November 17 Kosovo elections,
which Kosovo Serbs have been pressured to boycott, and the
anticipated, but not yet scheduled parallel Serbian municipal
elections in the spring. Samardzic said these councils would
allow the continuation of normal municipal activities in
Serb-majority municipalities and obviate the need for Serbs
to vote at all in the Kosovo elections. (Note: USOP has
pressed our local Russian colleagues, who agree that such a
move would directly challenge UNMIK's authority under UNSCR
1244, to use their influence in Belgrade to counter any
effort at creating such appointed councils. The idea has
apparently not yet died, but is being reconsidered, according
to the Russian liaison office head in Pristina.)


4. (C) At a November 7 meeting, the moderate mayor of Novo
Brdo, Petar Vasic, who has stated in public his strong
opposition to Belgrade's policy of electoral boycott and
non-participation in Kosovo institutions (and whose
municipality is balanced almost 50-50 between ethnic Serbs
and Albanians),told us that Samardzic personally had
telephoned him to warn him that his Serbian government-funded
salary would be cut off if he participated in the upcoming
elections. So worried about the effects of a boycott and the
possible Kosovo Albanian reaction to Belgrade's appointing
its own municipal councils that he "can't sleep," Vasic

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questioned the future of the Ahtisaari plan's
decentralization program -- which would expand Novo Brdo --
and feared the loss of any influence for Kosovo Serbs in the
central government, not to mention the possibility that local
control of Novo Brdo might shift to the Albanian parties.
Vasic told us that Strpce mayor Stanko Jakovljevic, who heads
the government of the other Serb-majority municipality south
of the Ibar, also received similar warnings from Samardzic.


Trouble at the RIC


5. (C) Recently, workers at two Kosovo government-funded
church reconstruction sites in Prizren, managed by the
Council of Europe-led Reconstruction Implementation
Commission (RIC),discovered that lead roofing plates valued
at 10,400 euro had been stolen from the roofs of the Church
of the Holy Virgin Ljeviska and the Church of St. Kyriake.
While the thefts were disturbing enough in their own right,
moderate prelate Bishop Teodosije told us in confidence
November 7 that he attended a recent meeting of the Serbian
Orthodox Church's (SOC) Synod in Belgrade, at which Samardzic
was present. The Synod questioned Teodosije closely about
the thefts and about problems with another RIC project in
Gjakova/Djakovica.


6. (C) Teodosije told us he thought that Samardzic and other
hardliners -- including Serbia's former representative to
the RIC, Gordana Markovic -- had been planning to call for a
complete halt to the SOC's participation in the
reconstruction program, and that only a friend in the Synod
telling Teodosije to be present at the meeting had
forestalled such a decision, as well as the support of
various of Teodosije's clerical colleagues in the Synod.
Nonetheless, Teodosije said he fears the thefts in Prizren
and the issues in Gjakova/Djakovica could still be used as
ammunition in that effort. (Note: In close coordination with
our international partners, we are working to ensure that the
Kosovo government provides adequate security to threatened
RIC sites, as well as funding repairs to the churches. A
November 16 cabinet meeting is set to approve 50,000 euro to
help with this effort. End Note.)

Provocative Rhetoric in Mitrovica


7. (SBU) On November 8, Samardzic visited northern Mitrovica
with Russian Ambassador to Serbia Aleksandar Alekseyev. The
pair spoke at several events, including the unveiling of a
statue in honor of Russian Consul to Kosovo Grigorij
Scherdin, who was killed by Kosovo Albanians in 1903. At a
later "town hall" event, which ICO PT attendees described as
more of a nationalist rally, the gathered crowd of northern
Serbs began a chant of "Serbia, Serbia." Samardzic was
reported by both Belgrade and Pristina dailies as saying
"there would not be peace" if the Albanians unilaterally
declared independence, and then flatly asserted that Serbia
would take steps to "punish" such actions and "return things
to normal."

Comment


8. (C) We can expect a continuing escalation of such
provocative steps from Belgrade and the northern Kosovo
leadership, culminating almost certainly after a Kosovar
declaration of independence in Belgrade taking various
measures quite marked in their seriousness: perhaps a
shutdown of the energy grid into Kosovo, perhaps a shutdown
of the border crossings, and possibly the establishment of an
entirely new "Kosovo Serb assembly" as well as the assertion
of continued political control by Belgrade in Serb-majority
areas of Kosovo. The primary task for us will be to ensure
that Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leadership -- and, far more
challenging, its radical elements -- understand the real
costs of responding to Serb provocations with violence or
quid pro quo activities. We have already begun spreading
this message across the Kosovo political spectrum, and intend

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to intensify the drumbeat as status approaches and as
election results lead to Kosovo government formation. We
will also need to consider our international responses to
these Serbian actions, though admittedly our leverage is
limited and we may end up simply having to try and ride out
the storm. End Comment.
KAIDANOW