KOSOVO: KOSOVARS ANXIOUS AND EXPECTANT, BUT CALM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRISTINA 000074

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, NSC FOR BRAUN, USUN FOR DREW
SCHUFLETOWSKI, USOSCE FOR STEVE STEGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UNMIK YI
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: KOSOVARS ANXIOUS AND EXPECTANT, BUT CALM,
IN ADVANCE OF AHTISAARI VISIT


Classified By: COM Tina S. Kaidanow for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Kosovar Albanians eagerly anticipate the
upcoming Feb. 2 visit by UN Special Envoy for Kosovo Martti
Ahtisaari, believing that his arrival will mark the final
phase in the status determination process. The Kosovar
Albanian "Unity Team" of negotiators from the major political
parties understand the importance of presenting a positive
initial response to Ahtisaari while reserving the right to
offer comments on the package after further review, and they
will accept without hesitation Ahtisaari's invitation for
further rounds of discussions. Kosovo Serbs will listen to
Ahtisaari's message carefully for a description of the rights
and guarantees afforded them by the package, but they will
almost certainly be guarded in their reaction, under pressure
from Belgrade and from their own hardline leadership to avoid
any indication that Ahtisaari's proposals might be acceptable
to them. Nevertheless, the more specifics Ahtisaari can
provide publicly, the more Serbs will be able to confront
squarely the impending status recommendation. A
USOP/USAID/OSCE/Unity Team joint effort to begin public
outreach to both ethnic communities is now underway, with
initial television spots already being broadcast that point
to a brighter future for Kosovo and a positive change ahead.
End summary.

Albanians Eagerly Waiting, Prepared for Ahtisaari


2. (C) Kosovar Albanians of all political stripes are
eagerly awaiting Ahtisaari's arrival on the afternoon of
February 2, believing that his visit marks the beginning of
what will be the last phase of discussions and diplomatic
activity before Ahtisaari makes his final status
recommendation to the UN Security Council. The Unity Team of
negotiators has gone through some tough times lately, with
widening fractures between the governing parties and an
increasingly restive opposition, as well as ruptures within
President Sejdiu's LDK party itself. Nevertheless, the
members of the Unity Team well understand the stakes involved
in Ahtisaari's visit, and they plan a coordinated and
positive initial response to his proposals. They will also
accept without hesitation his invitation to conduct further
discussions in Vienna.


3. (C) We have made clear to the entire Unity Team that
while they may choose to offer comments or suggestions on the
body of the Ahtisaari document once they have had time to
study it, the proposals were carefully crafted and room for
flexibility is likely minimal, especially in those areas
pertaining to the international civilian and military
presence, as well as the construct of the security sector in
Kosovo. This is a message that Ahtisaari himself may wish to
reiterate at the outset of his Feb. 2 meeting with the Unity
Team, to set the tone and prevent any miscalculations by the
Kosovars -- particularly from Prime Minister Ceku and/or
opposition leader Hashim Thaci (both with strong connections
to former KLA fighters),who if not discouraged early might
press for changes to the provisions dealing with the Kosovo
Protection Corps and the stand up of a Kosovo Security Force.
(Note: Thaci professed to COM recently that "in the end, he
will accept anything Ahtisaari delivers," though he might
still be tempted to court favor with his KLA colleagues by
championing a full transition of the current KPC into a
Kosovo army.)


4. (C) In other respects, however, and despite media sniping
about the implications of the decentralization provisions of
the package for Kosovo's "functionality," Kosovars are almost
certain to welcome what they will hear from Ahtisaari, having
comprehended that his proposals will provide the basis for a
favorable status decision. To underscore the positive change
that the status process will bring about, TV spots have
already begun airing as part of a USOP/USAID/OSCE/Kosovar
campaign to enhance public understanding; the first ads will
simply refer to the prospect of a brighter future for all
Kosovars, while later messages will target Albanian and Serb
audiences separately and contain more detailed information

PRISTINA 00000074 002 OF 002


about what is in the Ahtisaari package.

Serbs Quiet, Will Largely Ignore the Process


5. (C) Kosovo Serbs, in meetings with us and with other
Contact Group interlocutors, continue to demonstrate a
conflicted and mainly negative attitude towards the Ahtisaari
process. Still constructive are the relatively few Kosovar
Serb leaders like SLKM President Oliver Ivanovic who grasp
the significance of Ahtisaari's document and are still
willing to engage on the substance, but by far the larger
body of Serb leaders -- north and south -- are under the sway
of Belgrade and their own hardline extremists who have made
it plain they will punish any perceived engagement with the
Albanians or any excessive interest in the negotiation
process. Kosovo Serbs invited to meet with Ahtisaari in
Pristina will come and listen politely, but will make plain
their disinterest in anything having to do with the status
decision and their intention to utilize "all legal and
democratic means" to protest independence for Kosovo if that
is what emerges from the process.


6. (C) Despite this, Ahtisaari's public statement while in
Pristina and his private interaction with representatives of
the Serb community will be an important opportunity to get
the word out -- one that we can spread throughout Serb
enclaves and in the north -- on the benefits and guarantees
the package will afford Serbs in Kosovo. The more specifics
offered, the greater the incentive Serbs will have to
confront squarely the impending status decision and consider
carefully their options in light of his assurances.


7. (C) We expect no violence related to the Ahtisaari visit,
and very little public reaction from the Kosovo Serbs at all,
other than to restate their essential rejection of the
process. There could be demonstrations on the Kosovar
Albanian side, either on the day of the visit or just
preceding, from the small but rhetorically powerful
"Self-Determination" movement; security preparations will be
high and public support for the protest would be very low.
At this moment, all Kosovar eyes are fastened on President
Ahtisaari -- Kosovars continue to be invested in the status
process and will do much to see it through to its successful
conclusion, though they hope for unambiguous signs that this
last round of discussions will not be open-ended and that
Ahtisaari will make his final recommendation without undue
delay.


8. (U) U.S. Office Pristina clears this cable for release to
U.N. Special Envoy for Kosovo Martti Ahtisaari.
KAIDANOW