DFA OFFICIAL CALLS FOR DIALOGUE IN COMOROS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 004227

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/S
ANTANANARIVO FOR G. SIBLEY, S. RODRIQUEZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS SF SO CN AU
SUBJECT: DFA OFFICIAL CALLS FOR DIALOGUE IN COMOROS,
ETHIOPIAN TROOPS OUT OF SOMALIA

REF: A. ANTANANARIVO 1227 AND PREVIOUS


B. PRETORIA 0103

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Catherine Kay. Reasons 1.4(b
) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. The AU sanctions against the Comoran island
of Anjouan are beginning to create a "certain amount of
nervousness" on Anjouan and thus some momentum for
negotiations, according to DFA Director Maitland. The AU
Commission is planning a roundtable discussion on Comoros o/a
January 21 in Addis Ababa on the margins of the Council of
Ministers meeting, which the SAG hopes will "reenergize" the
diplomatic track. The SAG strongly opposes military action
against Anjouan. On Somalia, Maitland believes that Ethiopia
should withdraw immediately, that other regional powers
should stop interfering, and that the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) should be expanded to include the broad
range of political actors, including the "Asmara group." END
SUMMARY.


2. (U) PolOff met December 19 with Graham Maitland,
Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Director for the Horn of
Africa and Indian Island Nations; Phindile Xaba, Deputy
Director responsible for the Horn; and Wolf Rothkegel, Deputy
Director responsible for Comoros.

--------------
Comoros -- Need Dialogue
--------------


3. (C) According to DFA Director Maitland, the AU sanctions
against the Comoran island of Anjouan are beginning to have
some impact, creating a "certain amount of nervousness in
Anjouan." He attributes recent moves toward talks --
including the Grand Comoran President's peace initiative and
private signals from Colonel Bacar's camp that he is ready to
negotiate (NFI) -- to the new dynamic created by the AU
sanctions. Rothkegel added that the central government in
Moroni also is becoming aware (1) that sanctions will not, by
themselves, lead to Bacar's departure, and (2) that outside
military action is unlikely, both of which may lead them back
to the negotiating table.


4. (C) The AU Commission plans to host a roundtable
discussion on Comoros on the margins of the next AU Council
of Ministers meeting, currently scheduled to take place in
Addis Ababa o/a January 21. Maitland and Rothkegel view the
AU event as an opportunity to "reenergize the diplomatic
channel." They hope Colonel Bacar and President Sambi will
attend, but noted that the AU, not South Africa, will issue
invitations. Speaking frankly, Maitland said that the
central government is too "obsessed" with holding a new
election in Anjouan, which will not solve the political
problems in the Comoros. The fundamental problems relate to
a clash of visions about the future of the country, the
degree of centralization, and the future of the union
institutions -- and neither Bacar, Sambi, nor any other
Comoran leader is demonstrating leadership to deal with those
complex issues.


5. (C) According to Maitland, South Africa strongly opposes
military action against Bacar and will not support an AU
mandate or involvement in such operation. The SAG believes
the only lasting solution to the crisis in Comoros is
political and will emerge from dialogue, not military force.
Qpolitical and will emerge from dialogue, not military force.
Maitland also noted that a military intervention would be
logistically complicated and "not as easy as one might think."

--------------
Somalia -- Ethiopia Must Get Out
--------------


6. (C) Turning to Somalia, Maitland and Xaba repeated the
theme (see ref B) that the Ethiopian involvement in Somalia
was a "huge mistake" and their troops should leave as soon as
possible. (NOTE: Publicly, South Africa supports the AU
mission in Somalia. We suspect that more senior DFA

PRETORIA 00004227 002 OF 002


officials privately share Maitland's reservations about the
Ethiopian involvement in Somalia. END SUMMARY.) The
Ethiopians have done little to create security or to help the
Transitional Federal Government (TFG),and have instead
opened to the door to an "Islamist comeback." Maitland
dismissed the argument that a precipitous Ethiopian
withdrawal would create a security vacuum, suggesting instead
that the AU forces are "not doing much anyway" and "security
is already bad."


7. (C) According to Maitland, there are two keys to stability
in Somalia. First, regional governments, including Ethiopia,
but also Eritrea and others, must cease their interference in
Somalia. There must be a Somali solution to the Somali
political crisis. Second, the TFG must broaden its
government to include a wide range of political actors,
including the "Asmara group."


8. (C) Maitland confirmed that South Africa is not planning
any new initiatives on Somalia. The SAG continues to pay its
contribution to the AU for AMISOM and would consider requests
for assistance with reconciliation. The SAG also partially
funded a "track two" meeting that took place in November in
South Africa, hosted by the South African non-governmental
organization ACCORD. Both members of the TFG and "Asmara
group" attended the meeting, but Maitland did not offer to
share any details from this initiative. (COMMENT: Post will
reach out to ACCORD following the South African summer
holidays to seek additional information on the meeting. END
COMMENT.)
BOST