SAG PRESSURES FNL TO PARTICIPATE IN JVMM

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 003651

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C FOR M. SEIDENSTRICKER, AF/S R. MARBURG
BUJUMBURA FOR M. GARRETT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2017
TAGS: PREL BY SF
SUBJECT: SAG PRESSURES FNL TO PARTICIPATE IN JVMM

REF: A. TRENKLE-GARRETT EMAIL OF 10/16/2007


B. PRETORIA 2727

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Catherine Kay. Reasons 1.4(b
) and (d).


1. (U) The Burundi Joint Verification and Monitoring
Mechanism (JVMM) will meet on Saturday, October 20, in
Bujumbura, announced South African Minister for Safety and
Security and Regional Facilitator for the Burundi Peace
Process Charles Nqakula. The JVMM is the key vehicle for
implementing the September 2006 Comprehensive Ceasefire
Agreement between the Paliphehutu-FNL and Government of
Burundi. Speaking at a Pretoria press conference on October
15, Nqakula urged the Paliphehutu-FNL, which had pulled out
of the JVMM in July 2007, to attend the upcoming meeting.
Nearly 1,500 FNL fighters have "defected" from the rebel
movement, Nqakula claimed. The African Union mission in
Burundi -- which consists almost exclusively of South African
troops -- will establish assembly areas for these fighters.
Nqakula also stated that the region is considering holding a
summit on the Burundi peace process and that the FNL would be
invited. (Full transcript of Nqakula's remarks at
www.dfa.gov.za/docs/speeches/2007/nqak1016.ht m.)


2. (C) Jan van Eck, analyst for the Institute for Security
Studies (ISS) and informal advisor to the FNL, told PolOff
October 17 that the FNL will not attend the JVMM meeting
because its two key conditions have not been met:

-- the FNL must discuss their security with the South African
"protectors," particularly since they fled Bujumbura in July
because they felt the South African troops threatened their
security; and

-- the FNL formally rejected the South African mediation, and
must resolve this issue before reengaging in the peace
process.

Speaking by telephone from Dar es Salaam where he was meeting
with the FNL leadership, van Eck said that Nqakula's public
announcement of the JVMM meeting was "unfortunate" and
hardened the FNL position. They do not want to be "bullied"
into resuming their participation in the peace process. He
said that distrust between the South Africans and FNL run
high, although he noted that the FNL is more open to dialogue
with Nqakula compared to SAG Great Lakes Envoy Kingsley
Mamabolo, whom they do not trust. Van Eck noted that one
member of the SAG facilitation team (NFI) is in Dar es Salaam
and met with the FNL leadership October 17.


3. (C) Prior to Nqakula's announcement, van Eck had been
encouraging FNL leader Rwasa to meet with Nqakula and
Tanzanian President Kikwete in Dar es Salaam to hash out the
key issues and lay the groundwork for the JVMM meeting. Van
Eck believes that Rwasa would accept to meet with Nqakula, as
long as Kikwete was the host. Nqakula's press conference
announcing the October 20 JVMM meeting undermined this
initiative.


4. (C) On the FNL defections, van Eck doubted that Nqakula's
estimate of 1,500 was accurate. He agreed that there had
been some defections, but it is unclear how many were truly
FNL fighters. Van Eck claimed that none of the senior FNL
leadership had defected, and that there was no split in the
rebel movement.
Teitelbaum