Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07PRETORIA2727
2007-08-03 09:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Pretoria
Cable title:
VAN ECK SAYS FNL PEACE PROCESS "CRASHING"
how-toVZCZCXRO0390 RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN DE RUEHSA #2727 2150941 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 030941Z AUG 07 ZDK FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1077 INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1135 RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 1219 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1257 RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 0485 RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 4657 RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 002727
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM BY SF
SUBJECT: VAN ECK SAYS FNL PEACE PROCESS "CRASHING"
REF: A. BUJUMBURA 538
B. PRETORIA 1289
Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) and (
d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 002727
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM BY SF
SUBJECT: VAN ECK SAYS FNL PEACE PROCESS "CRASHING"
REF: A. BUJUMBURA 538
B. PRETORIA 1289
Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) and (
d).
1. (C) The Burundi FNL peace process is "crashing," according
to Institute for Security Studies analyst Jan van Eck. Van
Eck told PolOff August 1 that trust between the National
Force for Liberation (FNL) and the Government of Burundi
(GOB) is at an all time low, following the departure of the
FNL negotiators from Bujumbura (ref A). The FNL believes
that the South African-AU force -- their designated
protectors under the Cease-Fire Agreement -- surrounded their
homes July 21, essentially "detaining them." Regardless of
the truth, the FNL view of the July 21 events has undermined
their confidence in the neutrality of the South Africans, the
AU, and the regional peace process.
2. (C) Van Eck criticized the South African-led Facilitation
team for its "episodic" and "inconsistent" approach to the
FNL negotiations. The Facilitator, South African Minister
for Safety and Security Charles Nqakula, remains busy with
his core domestic crime portfolio, devoting energy to Burundi
only sporadically. The FNL does not trust SAG Great Lakes
Envoy Kingsley Mamabolo, van Eck said. The FNL leadership
told van Eck that they believe the regional facilitation
team, including the South Africans, Tanzanians, and Ugandans,
held a "secret meeting" in recent days, during which they
decided to "deal with the FNL," agreeing that the FNL is no
longer needed for peace in Burundi. FNL Spokesman Pasteur
Habimana told van Eck he believes his life is at risk and has
gone underground (even van Eck cannot reach him by phone).
3. (C) "We are entering a dangerous cycle," van Eck argued,
in which the GOB believes the FNL is preparing to go to war,
and the FNL takes Burundian military preparations as a sign
that the GOB is preparing for war. Arguing that one cannot
separate the FNL problems from the growing political
instability in Bujumbura, van Eck hinted that the political
opposition and the FNL may be communicating (NFI) -- the
"enemy of my enemy is my friend" -- and could even form an
alliance. Rumors that former CNDD-FDD leader Hussein Rajabu
will be killed in prison are only fueling tensions. As long
as the FNL remains outside the peace process, the "war
option" remains on the table, van Eck suggested.
4. (C) Asked what could be done, van Eck suggested that the
GOB could indicate that its military preparations are merely
defensive. This might calm tensions and reassure the FNL
leadership.
5. (C) COMMENT: Van Eck is a close confidant of the FNL
leadership, and his comments reflect the FNL's view that the
GOB is preparing for attack and that the South African-led
Facilitation is turning against them. The FNL's most recent
withdrawal from the process will frustrate Pretoria. As we
have reported (ref B),the South Africans have become
increasingly impatient with the slow pace of the FNL peace
process, especially as they are largely bearing the costs of
the AU security force in Burundi. END COMMENT.
Bost
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM BY SF
SUBJECT: VAN ECK SAYS FNL PEACE PROCESS "CRASHING"
REF: A. BUJUMBURA 538
B. PRETORIA 1289
Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) and (
d).
1. (C) The Burundi FNL peace process is "crashing," according
to Institute for Security Studies analyst Jan van Eck. Van
Eck told PolOff August 1 that trust between the National
Force for Liberation (FNL) and the Government of Burundi
(GOB) is at an all time low, following the departure of the
FNL negotiators from Bujumbura (ref A). The FNL believes
that the South African-AU force -- their designated
protectors under the Cease-Fire Agreement -- surrounded their
homes July 21, essentially "detaining them." Regardless of
the truth, the FNL view of the July 21 events has undermined
their confidence in the neutrality of the South Africans, the
AU, and the regional peace process.
2. (C) Van Eck criticized the South African-led Facilitation
team for its "episodic" and "inconsistent" approach to the
FNL negotiations. The Facilitator, South African Minister
for Safety and Security Charles Nqakula, remains busy with
his core domestic crime portfolio, devoting energy to Burundi
only sporadically. The FNL does not trust SAG Great Lakes
Envoy Kingsley Mamabolo, van Eck said. The FNL leadership
told van Eck that they believe the regional facilitation
team, including the South Africans, Tanzanians, and Ugandans,
held a "secret meeting" in recent days, during which they
decided to "deal with the FNL," agreeing that the FNL is no
longer needed for peace in Burundi. FNL Spokesman Pasteur
Habimana told van Eck he believes his life is at risk and has
gone underground (even van Eck cannot reach him by phone).
3. (C) "We are entering a dangerous cycle," van Eck argued,
in which the GOB believes the FNL is preparing to go to war,
and the FNL takes Burundian military preparations as a sign
that the GOB is preparing for war. Arguing that one cannot
separate the FNL problems from the growing political
instability in Bujumbura, van Eck hinted that the political
opposition and the FNL may be communicating (NFI) -- the
"enemy of my enemy is my friend" -- and could even form an
alliance. Rumors that former CNDD-FDD leader Hussein Rajabu
will be killed in prison are only fueling tensions. As long
as the FNL remains outside the peace process, the "war
option" remains on the table, van Eck suggested.
4. (C) Asked what could be done, van Eck suggested that the
GOB could indicate that its military preparations are merely
defensive. This might calm tensions and reassure the FNL
leadership.
5. (C) COMMENT: Van Eck is a close confidant of the FNL
leadership, and his comments reflect the FNL's view that the
GOB is preparing for attack and that the South African-led
Facilitation is turning against them. The FNL's most recent
withdrawal from the process will frustrate Pretoria. As we
have reported (ref B),the South Africans have become
increasingly impatient with the slow pace of the FNL peace
process, especially as they are largely bearing the costs of
the AU security force in Burundi. END COMMENT.
Bost