MISSILE DEFENSE: SCENESETTER FOR MDA DIRECTOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 PRAGUE 000420

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

FOR GENERAL OBERING FROM AMBASSADOR GRABER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS MARR EZ RU
SUBJECT: MISSILE DEFENSE: SCENESETTER FOR MDA DIRECTOR
OBERING'S VISIT TO PRAGUE

Classified By: Ambassador Richard Graber
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C/NF) General Obering, your visit to the Czech Republic
comes at a crucial time during the Czech national debate on
participation in missile defense with the United States. The
enthusiastic support of Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek's
right-of-center ODS party has gotten us this far, but your
personal support can assist in many critical ways. The
information you present will assist the ODS in both shoring
up support within the governing coalition, building bridges
to the main opposition party, and reducing the impact of the
misinformation campaign carried out by MD critics over the
past nine months.


2. (C/NF) The Czech Republic has been conducting a national
debate in earnest on missile defense since July 2006, when
the first survey team arrived. One result of this is that
many within Czech politics have a much more sophisticated
level of understanding of the general structure of missile
defense than might be expected. You should structure your
briefings to provide information that is detailed and
tailored specifically to the radar facility for the Czech
Republic. Sufficient time for questions will be essential, in
order to distance the United States from the paternalistic
briefings of Russia. NATO will be on everyone's minds.


3. (C/NF) When all is said and done the most critical single
event for the U.S. radar proposal will be the eventual Czech
Parliamentary vote on the negotiated agreement. Your
schedule for Prague is aimed at making it easier for the
Czech Parliament to eventually authorize the establishment of
a radar facility. Key themes for each of the major events are
outlined below.

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Sunday 22 April
Television, Radio and Print Interviews
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4. (C/NF) One hour has been set aside on Sunday for three
critical press interviews, which will take place at the
Ambassador's residence. Embassy staff will accompany you.
First, you will be interviewed by Czech television for a
20-minute news segment, followed by a 20-minute radio
interview. We expect the interviews to ask fairly pointed
questions about your assessment of Russia,s concerns voiced
this week in Brussels, why you have approached the Czech
Republic on missile defense, U.S. public and congressional
support of missile defense, and why this is not a NATO
undertaking. Following the broadcast interviews, you will
speak for 20 minutes with reporter Jiri Roskot, an
experienced foreign correspondent for Pravo, a
center-left-oriented paper. Roskot is a fair and balanced
reporter. He has an in-depth knowledge of NATO and is likely
to make this a focal point.

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Sunday 22 April
Dinner with DDM Bartak and CHOD Picek
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5. (C/NF) Your dinner with Deputy Defense Minister Martin
Bartak and CHOD General Vlastimil Picek gives you an
opportunity to enlist more enthusiastic support from the
CHOD. Czechs don't trust their politicians, and polling has
shown that the public places more faith in the opinion of
military officers on national security issues. Picek supports
the radar initiative, but needs to become more of a public
face on the issue if he is to deliver swings in public
opinion that could, in turn, make certain politicians less
wary of supporting the issue. You may wish to share your own
experience as a missile defense advocate as an example of how
Picek might engage on the issue. Deputy Minister Bartak is a
strong advocate for missile defense and is likely to welcome
a greater role for the CHOD.

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Monday 23 April -
Breakfast with Ivan Dvorak, and members of think tanks
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6. (C/NF) MOD Strategic and Defense Planning Director Ivan

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Dvorak, who will have greeted you at the airport on Friday,
April 20, is an MD supporter with strong link to NATO. He is
close to Czech NATO Ambassador Stefan Fule, and knows enough
about the NATO to be able to discuss this missile defense
program's level of association with NATO in an intelligent
manner. His primary goal is not/not an association for this
missile defense project with NATO, rather, it is the success
of this bilateral project. However, as an informed defense
strategist with an eye on the proclamations of Czech
politicians on the issue, Dvorak hopes to maximize any
possible NATO link, in order to maximize the chance of
success for the project in the domestic political arena.


7. (C/NF) For this discussion with members of think tanks,
expect Dvorak to be an ally, aware that this meeting may have
significant multiplier effects in terms of what is written by
Czech opinion-makers on MD.

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Monday 23 April -
Meeting with Opposition Leader Jiri Paroubek
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8. (C/NF) Your meeting with former Prime Minister Jiri
Paroubek may be the most important of the visit. Paroubek is
a political pit bull, dedicated almost exclusively to the
advancement of his political career. Paroubek has told me
that he personally supports the radar. But he finds himself
in a difficult position: he wants to appear statesmanlike
and maintain his generally good relations with the USG (of
which he is proud and which he knows will be important
if/when he becomes prime minister again),but at the same
time won't risk alienating the 80% of his party that say they
opposed MD. In February, Paroubek told me he would work to
ensure his party remains flexible in its approach to missile
defense. So far he has kept his word. While publicly against
approval of the initiative without a referendum, Paroubek has
the power to allow party members to cross the aisles and
support MD in the eventual deciding vote. These votes are
important, given the inability to predict how the Green Party
will vote on MD.


9. (C/NF) Paroubek faces significant pressure from some
within his party who are dedicated to stopping the radar
initiative. You should use this meeting to provide Paroubek
with information he can use internally to justify a more
positive approach. He is likely to raise the NATO issue.
Financial information indicating how much Czech construction
companies could stand to gain, as well as an estimate of the
number of local hires could be helpful in appealing to the
concerns of this center-left party. Assuring Paroubek himself
on environment and health issues is less important than
providing him with a way to show others that they have
nothing to fear. Finally, use flattery early and often with
Paroubek - He would like to be seen as a statesman, and we
should encourage that kind of high mindedness. Expect an
"impromptu" press conference at the end of the meeting as
Paroubek uses your meeting to portray himself as an insider
who is a major player even while out of government.

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Monday 23 April -
Presentation to Senior MOD and MFA representatives.
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10. (C/NF) These civilian and military leaders are your
troops on the ground, implementing the Czech Republic's
effort to make missile defense a reality here. Many have been
working on missile defense for close to a year. You should
brief them in as much detail as possible on 1) environmental
and health issues, 2) the degree to which this radar
initiative could associate itself with NATO and 3) how this
system guarantees protection for Czech Republic. These
individuals have to respond to skeptics, some from within
their own organizations, and also to local leaders who often
base their opposition to the radar on disinformation. I
suggest you leave plenty of time for their questions, and
that you mention the timeline for your sending a technical
expert to help them in their work.

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Monday 23 April -
Presentation to Parliament

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11. (C/NF) The five parliamentary parties have the following
approaches to missile defense.

Civic Democrats (ODS) center-right, 81 seats in Parliament
Leaders of the governing coalition. Strongly for hosting a
radar in the Czech Republic.

Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) 13 seats in Parliament
Junior partner in the governing coalition. Generally for the
radar initiative.

Greens (Zelena Strana) 6 seats in Parliament
Junior partner in the governing coalition. Generally against
the radar, with a few pragmatists. The leadership says it
would vote for the system if it were to become part of the
architecture of a future NATO system.

Social Democrats (CSSD) 74 seats in Parliament
Officially for a referendum on the issue (an extremely
unlikely eventuality). Much of the party remains favorably
inclined towards the United States. Under the right
circumstances several members could be persuaded to vote in
favor of the radar facility. However, CSSD insiders share
that they officially oppose MD because the Czech Government
supports it, i.e. they feel that they have to behave as
opposition party on all major issues. This might change if
better information sharing makes the electorate less likely
to reward the party which opposes the radar.

Communists (KSCM) 26 seats in Parliament
Completely against anything to do with the United States.
Also disproportionately represented in local politics around
the candidate site.


12. (C/NF) Your presentation to a joint session of the three
committees on Defense and Foreign Affairs follows hard on the
heels of Russian DFM Kislyak's April 12 briefing to the Czech
Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee. In that briefing he
claims to have demonstrated that the radar site is a step in
a larger U.S. strategy to develop a global missile defense
that will change the balance of power between the United
States and Russia. Kislyak claimed that:
I) There is no threat; II) If there were truly a threat from
the Middle East, the radar would be placed further to the
south; III) A U.S. missile defense radar in the Czech
Republic is aimed at watching Russia, and would be a greater
short and medium term threat to Russia than the planned
interceptors in Poland.


13. (C/NF) Your presentation must prove Kislyak wrong on all
of these points, and must do so in enough detail to prove to
the parliamentarians that it is the United States that is
telling the truth, not Russia. Your presentation must also
include the elements mentioned above of 1) environmental and
health issues, 2) the degree to which this radar initiative
could associate itself with NATO 3) how this system
guarantees protection for Czech Republic and 4) the system
will not increase the risk of terrorist attack.


14. (C/NF) This is one meeting where you should not be afraid
of speaking for a long time, and in great depth. This will be
a closed session (although press may be invited to take a
photo at the start). You can make this group feel like
insiders by dispelling some of the myths that have been
spread by missile defense opponents. Charts, photos, video,
and above all simulations will have their impact. Material to
leave behind would be helpful. The Embassy can assist with
duplication. For this meeting you need not leave too long a
period for questions. Certain members of the Parliament have
a habit of using question time to rant against the United
States for several minutes at a time. We have allies in the
Parliament that will be quick with questions, but you can
expect a few from opponents. If the past is any indicator
they may prove easy to answer, because they are based on
mistaken presumptions about missile defense or U.S. intent.


15. (C/NF) Present at this meeting will be the eight Deputies
and Senators who will have just returned from their visit to
Kwajalein and Honolulu (Two of those MPs, and one other
Defense Committee member, also met with you in Brussels).


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Monday 23 April -
Press Conference
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16. (C/NF) Following your presentation to Parliament, you
will engage the Czech and some international media in a
larger press conference. You are the only speaker; expect
15-20 journalists. They are expected to ask about Russia, US
benefits to the Czech Republic, US support for missile
defense and for further clarification of the threat. With
AFP, Reuters and AP in this group, you may be asked the
reaction of other EU members. As you are aware, a joint
op-ed by Secretaries Rice and Gates will be carried in the
leading Czech daily April 23, and that may frame many of the
questions.


17. (C/NF) There are three messages we believe are critical
for the Czech public. First, the threat is real. Second,
missile defense enhances the security of the Czech Republic
and Europe ) which lies unprotected from missile attack.
Reiterate for both broadcast and print media that this system
will protect Czech territory. Third, the public needs to
understand the radar is not harmful in any way ) to health
or to the environment. It complies with the highest health,
environmental and safety standards and you may chose to cite
whatever studies you can on this point.

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Monday 23 April -
Presentation to the National Security Council
and meeting with Prime Minister Topolanek
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18. (C/NF) The National Security Council is made up of the
Prime Minister, nine ministers, three other senior officials
and, upon his request, the President. We expect that
President Klaus will attend. The last NSC meeting announced
it was inviting you to Prague for consultations. You can
expect this will be the highest profile event of your trip.


19. (C/NF) While protection of the Czech Republic and
environmental concerns should be dealt with in your briefing,
NATO is the dividing factor here. The Greens want the U.S. to
promise that this will become part of a future "NATO system"
and are likely to question you closely on this point. Green
Party Deputy Prime Minister Martin Bursik plans to attend and
will be pushing for more NATO involvement. PM Topolanek has a
lot riding on the success of the missile defense initiative.
He stands to gain if your visit goes well but he too will
hope that you can address the NATO angle in a manner that
does not further divide his coalition. This is a largely
friendly audience, but don't be surprised if in the press
conference afterwards the Prime Minister emphasizes the
intention of the Czech government to require full information
from the U.S. government during the negotiating period. He
needs to project to the electorate that the Czech Government
can negotiate effectively with an ally the size of the United
States without being squashed.

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Monday 23 April -
Dinner with Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg
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20. (C/NF) You meeting with FM Schwarzenberg is more a matter
of form than an essential encounter. The Foreign Ministry has
already warned us that Schwarzenberg will have just arrived
from 10 days of travel (including a meeting with Secretary
Rice in Washington) and will be extremely tired. He is a
committed transatlanticist and a missile defense supporter,
going far beyond the level of his more timid counterpart in
the Defense Ministry, Vlasta Parkanova. It was Schwarzenberg
who responded to Putin's February rant in Munich by saying
that Putin had "clearly and convincingly" shown why NATO
should be enlarged.


21. (C/NF) Schwarzenberg, though not formally aligned with
the Green Party, fills the Foreign Minister post given to the
Greens. Insiders in Prague say he has been tasked with
delivering Green Party support for Missile Defense, a
challenging task. He may return to the NATO angle, as this is
the facet of missile defense the Green Party cares about most.

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22. (C/NF) Also present at this dinner, and at most of your
meetings will be Deputy FM Tomas Pojar, whom you will meet on
the margins of the NAC on April 19. Pojar is an enthusiastic
MD supporter and will lead the Czech negotiating team. Tomas
Klvana, a talented young man who may be named the Prime
Minister's point man on MD, will attend the dinner with
Schwarzenberg.


22. (C/NF) I wish you successful meetings at NATO. We are
looking forward to your arrival in Prague and to working with
you to make the radar initiative a success.
GRABER