IRAN BLASTS THE CZECHS FOR REACTION TO NIE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRAGUE 001293

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2012
TAGS: KNNP MNUC PREL PGOV IR EZ EUN
SUBJECT: IRAN BLASTS THE CZECHS FOR REACTION TO NIE

REF: A. STATE 165967


B. PRAGUE 1274

C. PRAGUE 1156

Classified By: Political Economic Counselor Michael Dodman for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Iran has reacted harshly to the Czech stance
on the recently released NIE and their decision to continue
missile defense negotiations. They appear to have, at least
temporarily, halted what were tentative steps towards
normalizing relations. End summary


2. (C) During a meeting with Czech MFA experts on the Middle
East on Dec 11, we inquired about the status of efforts to
normalize Czech-Iranian relations (as reported reftel C, the
Czechs have proposed upgrading their diplomatic relations to
Ambassador level, largely with an eye towards their 2009 EU
Presidency; relations were downgraded in 1997 after
Prague-based Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty launched its
FARSI service). The MFA reported that in the fall they had
taken the step of seeking agrement for an Ambassador in
Tehran; the candidate was the former Czech Ambassador to
Nigeria, who unfortunately died several weeks ago, forcing
the Czechs to reassess their plans for the mission in Tehran.
While the Iranians had not approved agrement prior to the
Czech diplomat's death, the Czechs noticed a clear
improvement in Czech-Iranian relations in recent months, at
least here in Prague. The Iranian Charge and other resident
diplomats were much more active, meeting with various
departments in the MFA and other Czech ministries that had
not seen an Iranian diplomat in years, on what were termed
"normal" issues.


3. (C) This all changed, however, following the release of
the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) and the Czech
government's immediate and clear comments that (a) Iran
remains a threat, and (b) they would continue with
negotiations on missile defense. The MFA issued statement to
this effect on December 5 (see paragraph 5). The Iranian
Charge demarched the MFA Middle East Department on December
7, expressing their displeasure with the Czech position in a
tone that was a sharp break from conversations in the past
months. On December 12 the Iranian Charge demarched the MFA
Security Policy Department on the NIE and missile defense,
citing the MFA statement and comments made by Director
Veronika Kuchynova-Smigolova on weekend talk shows.
Kuchynova-Smigolova told us after the meeting that the Charge
had characterized her as "tougher than Condoleezza Rice."


4. (C) Comment: We do not anticipate any change in Czech
policy as a result of the Iranian demarches. The Czech
effort to normalize relations has obviously suffered a dual
setback. In a few months, once they have determined another
suitable candidate for Tehran and the Iranians have had a
chance to cool off, we expect the Czechs will try again. End
comment.

--------------
Czech MFA Statement on NIE
--------------


5. (U) The following is the Czech statement posted on the MFA
website December 5.

Statement of the MFA on the Published Report of U.S.
Intelligence Services on the Nuclear Military Programme of
Iran

1. According to the Report, Iran did develop a secret nuclear
military programme, stopped it in 2003 and is able of
renewing it at any moment.

2. The abortion of the programme is a confirmation of the
successful international community pressure and this pressure
concerning the nuclear programme of Iran should continue in
the future.

3. According to the Report Iran will be probably able of
producing sufficient quantity of nuclear material for a
nuclear bomb between 2010 and 2015. That corresponds to
current estimations. In this time schedule the European
pillar of antimissile defense should be in place.

4. The Report covers the nuclear programme, not the programme
of missile carriers development. This programme continues,
as it was confirmed recently by Iran announcing a test of the
Ashura solid-fueled ballistic missile.

5. For these reasons the Report of the U.S. intelligence
services will not influence the position of the Czech
Government on further negotiations with the USA concerning a
possible location of a radar base on the Czech territory.
Graber