CZECH OPPOSITION LEADER PROMISES FLEXIBILITY IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000106

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH OPPOSITION LEADER PROMISES FLEXIBILITY IN
APPROACH TO MISSILE DEFENSE

REF: PRAGUE 102

Classified By: Ambassador Richard Graber for reasons 1.4 b+d


1. (C) Summary: Czech opposition leader Jiri Paroubek told
Ambassador that he would ensure that his party continued to
maintain a flexible approach on a missile defense (MD) radar
in the Czech Republic. Paroubek confirmed that he felt that
for internal party reasons he had no choice but to have his
Social Democratic party (CSSD) come out with a negative
opinion on MD (reftel),but accepted Ambassador's arguments
that it made no sense for the party to take a final position
on MD before the results of negotiations are known, nor to
take a position that was contrary to the long-term security
interests of the country. Paroubek told Ambassador, and
stressed strongly in public remarks following the meeting,
that it is important to CSSD that the U.S. MD effort in
Europe be seen to have a "multilateral" component. Paroubek
said that after his party's Executive Committee meets this
weekend and adopts what will certainly by a negative position
on MD (and in favor of a referendum),he will aim to "freeze"
the debate on MD within the party, and reopen it only once
negotiations are complete. End summary.


2. (C) CSSD Chairman Paroubek readily agreed to Ambassador's
request for a meeting, made after news broke that the CSSD
leadership met early on February 2 and for the first time
took an official stance against MD. Paroubek, who over the
weekend completed a clean sweep of regional CSSD conferences
to become the sole candidate for CSSD Chairman when the
national party Congress takes place next month, welcomed
Ambassador to his office on February 5 with confidence and
good cheer, saying that he would have asked to meet the
Ambassador if our call had not come first. This was the
third meeting between the two in less than one month.
Paroubek was accompanied by CSSD Foreign Policy Advisor Ivan
Busniak. Of note: CSSD Shadow Foreign Minister Lubomir
Zaoralek, a harsh critic of MD, did not participate in this
meeting (Ambassador has a separate meeting with Zaoralek
scheduled for February 12).


3. (C) Ambassador noted his disappointment at the change in
Paroubek's position on MD, and urged Paroubek to maintain
flexibility in determining the party's stance. He emphasized
that it made no sense for CSSD to take a position today
opposed to MD since (a) negotiations on the facility have not
even begun, and (b) this is a decision with long-term
security consequences for the Czech Republic, for Europe, and
for the United States.


4. (C) Reading from prepared notes, Paroubek said he wanted
to explain next steps within the party on MD. He did not
dwell on any of the reasons why CSSD was taking a stand
against MD, nor did he waste any time trying to make the case
that there had not been a shift in CSSD's position. Rather,
true to his pragmatic style, Paroubek focused on the road
ahead, starting out by saying that the issue "is not closed"
within the party. Paroubek admitted that there would be
further debate this week, culminating with the CSSD Executive
Committee (UVV) meeting on Saturday. He said he wants to
have a decision at the weekend meeting that is "as moderate
as possible" and which would effectively close the debate
within the party for now. He expects that within 9-12
months, when negotiations are complete and all the facts are
on the table, the debate can be joined again.


5. (C) Emphasizing that he was speaking candidly with the
Ambassador, Paroubek said that he needed to neutralize the MD
debate in advance of the CSSD Congress (March 23-24 in Brno).
He said his presence at the regional party conferences in
recent weeks demonstrated to him that some 80% of CSSD
members, and perhaps 50% of likely CSSD voters, are opposed
to the radar. He went on to place some of the blame for
these numbers on the ruling ODS party, claiming that the
Topolanek government's openness in discussing the U.S.
proposal, including identifying the site, had accelerated the
public debate and forced mayors near the site (most of whom
are CSSD or Communist) to begin vocalizing their concerns.


6. (C) Looking ahead, Paroubek stated repeatedly that the
most important factor in determining a future CSSD position
on MD is the multilateral element -- defining the connection
between the U.S. MD system and NATO. He emphasized that he
would make sure that CSSD's position going forward remained
"flexible" and boasted of his ability to "manipulate" the
working of the party when necessary. Paroubek emphasized
that he has few allies within the party on MD. He promised
that CSSD aimed to keep their approach to MD "moderate" --
contrasting this with both the Communists and ODS whom he
said had too often "exaggerated" (without elaborating). He

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encouraged the embassy to continue to meet with individual
CSSD officials to discuss the matter with them, and expressed
appreciation for embassy participation in a recent webchat
with party members devoted to MD.


7. (SBU) Paroubek and the Ambassador participated in a press
conference following the meeting -- one that had obviously
been prepared by CSSD but not previously discussed with the
embassy. For the press, Paroubek emphasized CSSD's
transatlantic focus and existing good relations with the
U.S.; made a division between the first stage of the party's
debate on MD, which would close with this weekend's Executive
Committee meeting, and any future debate once negotiations
concluded; and stressed the importance of a multilateral
component as the key to a revised CSSD position on the MD
project. Ambassador emphasized the importance of looking at
MD in terms of long-term security, and also avoiding a final
decision before negotiations had even begun. Questions from
the press focused on whether there would be a referendum
(this topic did not come up during the private meeting;
Paroubek made positive noises, but did not dwell on the
issue),whether there exists a NATO element to the current
U.S. offer (Ambassador noted that NATO had identified a
missile threat and was studying a response, and that the U.S.
system could perhaps be compatible with a future NATO
national MD system),and whether the USG was worried by the
Czech voices critical of MD (Ambassador emphasized our long
and close partnership with the CR on security issues).
GRABER