Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07PORTOFSPAIN1077
2007-10-26 20:29:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Port Of Spain
Cable title:  

ELECTIONS: TEN DAYS TO GO

Tags:  PGOV SOCI TD 
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PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHSP #1077/01 2992029
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 262029Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY PORT OF SPAIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8751
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3712
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT OF SPAIN 001077 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI TD
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: TEN DAYS TO GO

SENSITVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT OF SPAIN 001077

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI TD
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: TEN DAYS TO GO

SENSITVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Trinidad and Tobago's citizens are
experiencing high intensity campaigning with only ten days
until the elections, and seem convinced that this vote will
have long-lasting implications. The ruling People's National
Movement (PNM) seems confident of victory and a growing
number of pundits agree this is the most likely election
outcome. The two opposition parties, the Congress of the
People (COP) and the United National Congress-Alliance
(UNC-A),continue fighting each other as much as the PNM.
Both publicly and privately still express the expectation
they will emerge victorious on November 5, though the UNC
implies it might squeak to a majority while the COP predicts
it will either win big or lose big. END SUMMARY.

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Dirty Politicking or Politicking As Usual?
--------------


2. (SBU) As the election clock winds down, claims of &dirty
politicking8 are heating up. Police Commissioner Trevor
Paul has made public appeals for a clean campaign. Though
the level of mischief so far is actually low, what has
occurred has gotten major media play. COP candidate Marlene
Coudray,s campaign office, for example, was vandalized and
PNM loyalists supposedly did not allow her to distribute
campaign flyers. In an October 25 meeting with Poloffs,
another COP candidate said some PNM loyalists living in
government-built housing projects actually confronted Coudray
with guns and refused to allow her to enter their
neighborhood.


3. (SBU) The COP is not the only victim, though, as a few
PNM billboards have been destroyed and UNC offices
vandalized. For his part, Prime Minister Patrick Manning
suggests the occasional incidents are a result of the
infighting between the COP and the UNC. Others have
downplayed these reports, noting that these could easily have
just been criminal acts in a society suffering under the
weight of rampant crime.

--------------
Running on Two Citizenships?
--------------


4. (SBU) Another issue that has arisen involves whether a
couple of UNC candidates are eligible to stand for election
since they enjoy dual-citizenship ) one from the U.S. and
the other from the UK. Section 48 (1) of the TT constitution
states that no person who has sworn a voluntary allegiance to

another country shall be eligible to hold a seat in the House
of Representatives. The two candidates argue that they had
no control over where they were born and received passports
of those other nations as children and, as such, they should
not be penalized. In a meeting with Poloffs, a noted
election analyst pointed out that one of the questioned UNC
candidates is running in the same constituency (district) as
COP leader Winston Dookeran. If opposition voters don't see
this UNC candidate as legitimate (and the COP has been
running ads telling people not to waste their votes on him),
they might throw their support to Dookeran. The &pin
action8 on this might even spread to other marginal
districts, the analyst suggested, since opposition voters who
wondered whether Dookeran could win a seat could take heart
from this turn of events and stay loyal (or move to) the COP.
(Note: A similar issue involving two MPs with dual
citizenship arose in 2001. The MPs lost their local case,
but appealed to the Privy Council. The matter was rendered
moot, though, when parliament dissolved before the case could
be heard.)

--------------
New Voters, New Allegiances?
--------------


5. (SBU) All three parties are courting the votes of women
and youth. For the first time in election history,
registered women voters (slightly) outnumber men. In
addition, the PNM and UNC have hosted concerts to attract
youth voters and the COP developed a youth manifesto (all
three parties are finally unveiling their platforms after a
long delay). Some analysts have posited that a large youth
turnout would favor the COP, the self-declared party of
change.

--------------
Comment: What Will Be the Outcome?
--------------


6. (SBU) As candidates head into the final week of

PORT OF SP 00001077 002 OF 002


campaigning, it is still difficult to predict the outcome of
the election, though the PNM remains the favorite and
increasingly so among most pundits. Manning has toned down
his triumphalist rhetoric, though, which was not playing
well, but also conceivably could have encouraged complacency
among PNM voters. A high-PNM official, though, told us this
week that the party will win at least 26 seats and went so
far as to invite us to his victory &lime8 (party; we
politely declined).


7. (SBU) The race is not in the bag, however, given the
vagaries of politics, mixed and unreliable polling, and the
fact that the combined opposition vote probably exceeds the
PNM vote. If the COP can ride the wave it predicts is
building and drive the UNC into a distant third place, it
could surprise. According to some election analysts to whom
we spoke, as well as many COP insiders, it is plausible the
COP could win the election or take no seats at all. The
party says for this wave to crest on election day, it will
need a large voter surge (beyond the normal mid- to high-60
percent turnout). The UNC, for its part, is banking on its
traditional voters staying loyal or returning to the fold on
November 5 and it squeaking through to victory.
KUSNITZ