Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07PORTOFSPAIN1047
2007-10-19 16:51:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Port Of Spain
Cable title:  

ELECTIONS: FRENETIC CAMPAIGNING CONTINUES

Tags:  PGOV PREL TD 
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INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3710
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT OF SPAIN 001047 

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DEPT FOR WHA/CAR and INR/IAA

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL TD
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: FRENETIC CAMPAIGNING CONTINUES

REF: Port of Spain 1030

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT OF SPAIN 001047

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SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR and INR/IAA

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL TD
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: FRENETIC CAMPAIGNING CONTINUES

REF: Port of Spain 1030

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The past week has seen continued frenetic
campaigning as
Trinidad and Tobago's three major political parties jockey for
position in advance of the November 5 vote. With two weeks to go,
Prime Minister Manning's ruling People's National Movement (PNM)
party remains the favorite, though the unreliability of polling and
the daily ups-and-downs of the race make firm predictions difficult.
The past week of campaigning saw growing discussion of opposition
claims that Manning, if he wins a "special majority" (three-quarters
of House seats),wants to reform the constitution and replace the
current parliamentary system with a presidential form of government,
making himself an elected "dictator." Manning belied these charges
and said any moves to change the constitution would be completely
transparent and subject to wide public debate. The opposition
United National Congress (UNC) and Congress of the
People (COP) parties continued to focus their fire on the PNM. The
UNC, for its part, maintained its schizophrenic stance toward the
COP, bashing it, but also leaving the door open to forming a united
opposition front. The COP has so far refused such blandishments.
A small group of CARICOM observers will monitor the elections. END
SUMMARY.

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A. A DOUBLE-SECRET DRAFT CONSTITUTION
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2. (SBU) Constitutional reform to move toward an executive
presidential system from the current parliamentary (i.e., prime
ministerial) system with a ceremonial president has been under
discussion since at least August 2006. A draft constitution, to
replace the current 1976 document, was circulated in the
House of Representatives, but given the last parliament's balance of
forces, it went nowhere. Charging it had gotten hold of a second,
secret version of the proposed draft constitution, the opposition

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charged this week that Manning wanted to turn himself into an
elected dictator for life. Manning belittled these charges and said
there is nothing secret about the ongoing constitutional review
process and promised that any future moves to change the
constitution would be transparent and open to public debate.



3. (SBU) Opposition rumblings over "dictator" Manning cut a couple
of ways.
They highlight his sometimes high-handed tendencies with those he
disagrees with "including in his party" and may sway some votes in
marginal districts. They also, though, suggest the opposition is
concerned that the PNM might gain a large electoral victory and play
into the PNM "go with a winner" advertising theme. This is the case
since Manning could only reform the entire constitution if his party
won three-quarters of the House races (31 of 41 seats). Other
portions of the document, or laws related to it, could be changed
(depending on the provision in question) if the PNM wins 28 seats
(two-thirds of the House) or 25 seats (three-fifths). Perhaps due to
the complications in explaining these possibilities, opposition
parties have focused on the 31 seats/dictator-in-waiting charge.

-------------- --
FESTIVE MOOD AS CANDIDATES FILE PAPERS
--------------


4. (SBU) On October 15, all candidates had to file their nominating
papers.
Despite constant rain, the major parties turned out raucous crowds
to watch their candidates turn in the required paperwork. Both the
PNM and COP presented candidates for all 41 seats; however, the UNC
chose not to contest the two seats in Tobago, instead making an
accommodation with a local Tobago-based alliance.
The Tobago race will be uphill for the opposition; the island's two
seats are currently in PNM hands.


5. (SBU) Former UNC Cabinet Minister Mervyn Assan will contest the
San Fernando East seat for the COP, which is currently held by the
Prime Minister. Manning has won election nine straight times and
neither Assan nor UNC candidate
Frederick Norman is considered a threat to him. UNC leader Basdeo
Panday also is considered a sure thing for his seat, his legal woes
notwithstanding. COP leader Winston Dookeran has fewer reasons to
be confident. The St. Augustine seat held by him has been a UNC
stronghold for the past 12 years. Dookeran won the seat as a UNC
member before forming the COP, but his re-election could be
jeopardized if the COP and UNC split the opposition vote.


6. (SBU) In some ways, the St. Augustine race is a microcosm of the
entire election. If the UNC and COP, which broke off from it a year
ago, draw enough support from one another, it could allow marginal

PORT OF SP 00001047 002 OF 002


PNM candidates to win and jeopardize some traditional opposition
strongholds. Recognizing that a combined opposition would be in a
better position win, the UNC stated its new deadline (there has been
a different one just about every week) for the COP to unite with it
was October 31. That is legally the last day for any agreement
since no alterations to the ballot can be made within five days of
the November 5 vote.
(Note: Though ballots would already be printed, local election
officials would take actions to alert voters to any candidates that
had dropped out as part of an opposition deal). Nevertheless,
Dookeran does not trust Panday and would lose support (and face) if
he joined with the man he broke with a year ago. If the COP were to
ally with the UNC, it also would be a tacit admission that the party
might not outlive this election, ending its goal of replacing the
UNC as the main opposition party if it fails to secure the
government.

--------------
OPINION POLLS: YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR
--------------


7. (SBU) Figuring out how this will all come out is made more
difficult by the unreliability of local polls. A Wickham poll
released October 14 indicates the
COP is leading the PNM and that Dookeran is the preferred candidate
for Prime Minister. A Selwyn Ryan and Associates poll taken at the
end of September and beginning of October suggests the PNM leads the
COP by five percent. A recent
NACTA poll was spun as showing the UNC with a huge lead over the COP
and the
PNM, but it only encompassed three safe constituencies already in
UNC hands.
Some analysts, in private conversations with us, have downplayed the
published polls, saying they are biased, with the results
pre-determined. All parties are reportedly doing their own private
surveys.

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ELECTION MONITORING LIGHT
--------------


8. (U) Early in the campaign, the opposition called for widespread
international monitoring of the elections. Manning, however,
determined only to invite CARICOM to observe the elections and a
small team (between 9 and 14) from that organization is expected to
monitor the vote. Local parties all have poll observers and the
balloting is expected to be fair and transparent. Opposition
parties have made less noise about this lately, perhaps judging the
issue had little traction with the public.

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COMMENT: ONWARD AND?
--------------


9. (SBU) The PNM remains the favorite, but it still remains too
early to call this race. While the COP continues to make an
impressive showing in rallies, it also seems to be running short of
funds, perhaps an indication that the party's initial momentum has
waned (COP leaders say they are marshalling their funds for a last
week push). The UNC had a relatively quiet week, having buried (for
the moment) its internal soap opera over who would lead it "and
Trinidad" if it were to win the election.

KUSNITZ