PREVAL PLAYS COY ON ELECTIONS: EVERYONE PLAYS THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 001704

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PASS NSC FOR FISK
WHA PASS USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2014
TAGS: HA PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: PREVAL PLAYS COY ON ELECTIONS: EVERYONE PLAYS THE
INTERNATIONAL CARD

REF: PORT AU PRINCE 1649

Classified By: Ambassador Janet A. Saderson, reason 1.5(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. n a series of encounters wth President
Preval over the past week, he has continued to insist that he
will go forward with senatorial elections. He has not offered
any specifics or date. At the same time, he said, he will
press ahead on constitutional reform. The President was
surprised that the majority of the international community
did not back his original proposal to delay elections to
allow for constitutional reform. He has apparently backed
away from an election freeze. Preval continues to look to the
international community for support, while other Haitians are
now seeking to use international support to shape the debate.
End Summary.


2. (C) In a series of encounters with President Preval over
the past week, he has continued to insist to me that he will
go forward with senatorial elections. He has not offered me
any specifics or date. At the same time, he said, he will
press ahead on constitutional reform. In our most recent
discussion of the issue, during a October 19 meeting with
visiting USAID Assistant Administrator Paul Bonicelli, Preval
noted that the arrangements were "almost in place" for a new
CEP to be named. Then the tools would be in place for the
senatorial elections, he stated. He contends that his
consultations on his constitutional reform proposal were
going well, although he acknowledged that there is still work
to be done. When I pressed him most recently on the timing of
the senatorials, noting the constitutional clock is ticking,
he assured me that he is committed to elections taking place
"as soon as possible in the best conditions possible," a
formula which leaves much unsaid.


3. (C) Preval has alternatively been blunt and coy with me
on the election issue, perhaps reflecting how far he feels he
can deflect an issue about which he clearly has little
enthusiasm at this time. Ten days ago, he assured me that the
"electoral schedule" would be maintained and senatorial
elections would take place shortly. In three subsequent
conversations on the issue, however, he has been more vague
while continuing to stress his commitment to the process.
However, he has refused thus far to set a date and continues
to downplay the importance of the indirect elections, arguing
that a new CEP offsets the immediate need for the indirect
polls. (NOTE. The indirect elections are supposed to produce
nominees for the permanent CEP among other local government
bodies. END NOTE)


4. (C) Preval intimates tell me that he was disagreeably
surprised by the pushback, both here and in New York, from
the Elections Core Four countries (US, Brazil, Canada, and
France) on his original proposal to delay all polls until

2012. Regrouping quickly, he now touts a plan which focuses
on constitutional reform and a restructured CEP, with
senatorial elections at some (unspecified) time in the near
future. However, the pushback has not been universal: both
the Argentinean and Chilean Ambassadors here believe that
Preval and the Haitians, not the international community,
should set the country's electoral schedule. There is also
some indication that working-level MINUSTAH officials have
tacitly supported the Preval proposals, both with regard to
elections and constitutional reform.


5. (C) Conflicting signals from the international community
notwithstanding, Preval is - in time honored Haitian
tradition - attempting to pull Haiti's friends into the
debate. He clearly intended to use the international
community's support for his plan as a rationale for delaying
elections. Forced to jettison that idea, he left many
Haitians with the impression that the U.S. and others had
signed off on his constitutional reform during the UN
meetings last month. Most recently, he has been quoted as
saying that "foreign experts" would be involved in examining
possible changes to the constitution. Most observers here
believe that to be a reference to Americans or Canadians.
(Note. Either would, I believe, be problematic in this
fiercely nationalistic nation. End note.) Preval is not
alone in playing the international card: Sen. Rudy Boulos
and his colleagues who recently returned from Washington, are
telling Haitians here that they "got the USG to pressure

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Preval" to commit to senatorial elections; Boulos now wants
to go to Ottawa to persuade Canada to push Preval to back
away from his constitutional reform plan, much to the dismay
of my Canadian colleague. Senate President Lambert has now
said that he is planning a journey north to "tell everyone
what we (Haitians) really think."


6. (C) Comment. The debate on Preval's proposal now
preoccupies Haiti's political leadership, leaving it precious
little time for the real business of governing. Preval is
now spending most of his days lobbying for his proposals,
most recently with the mayors. Some of our interlocutors
assume that Preval, with his eye firmly fixed on
constitutional revision, will soon fold on the issue of
senatorial elections and set a date. The more cynical among
them believe that rewriting the constitution was Preval's
plan all along. Whatever the rationale, the president's
actions thus far have engendered a certain degree of
political tension and uncertainty here, commodities not
necessarily conducive to positive discussion -- or fostering
political stability.
SANDERSON