MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES DIVIDED ON ELECTIONS,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PORT AU PRINCE 001682

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/EX AND WHA/CAR
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR
INR/IAA
WHA/EX PLEASE PASS USOAS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HA
SUBJECT: MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES DIVIDED ON ELECTIONS,
CONSTITUTION

REF: A. PORT AU PRINCE 1649


B. PORT AU PRINCE 1593

PORT AU PR 00001682 001.2 OF 003



1. (U) This message is sensitive but unclassified -- please
protect accordingly.


2. (SBU) Summary: Opposition to President Preval's plan to
reconstitute the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) is
emerging. Political parties and civil society groups are
also commenting on the President's proposals to delay
elections and amend the Constitution. In the face of this
opposition, Preval denied there has been a decision to
disband the CEP, and promised he will continue broad
consultations with political parties and other sectors. Among
the major political parties, Fusion and OPL are resisting the
President's proposals -- although they say they will go along
reluctantly with reforming the CEP --while Lespwa, Alyans and
Union generally support Preval. Secondary political parties,
civil society, religious groups and the private sector are
beginning to voice public criticism of the Presidential
consultations on the CEP. There is still no official GoH
word on reconstituting the CEP or on Senate elections. End
summary.

Tempered Opposition from Fusion, OPL
--------------


3. (SBU) Fusion spokesperson Micha Gaillard told Poloff on
October 10 that Fusion supports retaining the current CEP,
but does not want its opposition to the President to cause
further delays of senatorial elections. Fusion believes that
if Preval decides to form a new CEP, its mandate should
include indirect elections in addition to the senatorial
elections. Fusion staunchly supports holding indirect
elections so the decentralization process can be completed, a
step Gaillard said Preval sees as pointless since he plans to
change that part of the Constitution anyway. Fusion agrees
that although the Constitution is a source of many problems
for Haiti, it should be amended only according to the
constitutional procedure outlined in Title XIII of the 1987
Constitution.


4. (SBU) OPL (Struggling Peoples' Party) Secretary General
Edgard Leblanc Fils told Poloffs October 10 that the October
9 meeting with Preval was inconclusive, and that Minister of
Parliamentary Affairs Joseph Jasmin's October 10 public
statement claiming a decision had been reached to dissolve
the CEP (ref A) was inaccurate. (Note: Prime Minister
Jacques-Edouard Alexis stated on October 12, ''No official
decision has been made on the issue.'' The Secretary General
of the Presidency also on October 12 announced that
consultations were ongoing. End note.) OPL's position is that
elections are the most important goal; the particular lineup
of CEP counselors is secondary. They are concerned that at
this point Senate elections will not take place on time, and
that the GoH does not want to proceed with indirect
elections. OPL wants any new CEP mandate to include both
senatorial and indirect elections. Leblanc echoed a suspicion
voiced by many CEP members (septel) that the delay in the
Senate elections is part of an Executive scheme to declare
the Senate dysfunctional when the new senators do not take
their seats on the second Monday in January. However, he also
said Preval assured the party leaders that Haiti would have
elections for one-third of the Senate but that would be the
last election until the Constitution is changed. Leblanc
speculated that Senate elections would not be held until at
least March 2008, after the February Carnival celebrations
had passed. He adamantly insisted the GoH cannot justifiably
amend the Constitution outside of the modalities provided
therein. OPL disputes the oft-repeated claim that this
amendment process is too long. Leblanc concluded by saying
that Haiti needs a national debate over what amendments to
the Constitution are needed.

Lespwa, Alyans and Union Support Preval
--------------


5. (U) Lespwa continues to support preval's public position

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on elections and the Constitution, hewing to the line taken
by Lespwa Steering Committee chair Anes Lubin in a September
26 conversation with Poloffs: the CEP lacks a mandate for
senatorial elections, and certain counselors are corrupt.
Senate elections are important, but Haiti needs a new CEP to
ensure legitimacy. In addition, Lespwa thinks the 1987
Constitution is problematic and the President is completely
justified in his desire to change it (ref B).


6. (SBU) ''Union'' Party chairman Jean Chavannes Jeune told
Poloff on October 9 that Union supports President Preval's
position on elections and the Constitution. Jeune called the
CEP ''corrupt and incompetent'' and argued that the current
counselors are not fit to manage the next senatorial
elections. Jeune did say that Union supports elections
sometime in 2008, under a new provisional CEP. Jeune
predicted that the new senators would take office in March or
April 2008. Jeune also stated that the 1987 Constitution
poses major problems and needs to be amended through the
procedure provided in the Constitution itself, or replaced
via a ''constituent assembly.'' He saw no problem with
changing the Constitution through extra-constitutional means,
i.e., through a constituent assembly. However, Jeune told the
Embassy October 10 that the meeting with the President had
agreed only that the CEP must be restructured (ref A).


7. (U) Alyans Secretary General Evans Paul announced October
10 that the President and the participating political parties
did indeed reach consensus on October 9 around forming a new
CEP. However, he said they had not yet agreed on a method for
formulating the new council, or on what the mandate of that
council should be. According to Paul, the President told
party leaders he intended to consult with other sectors
before making a final decision. Preval expressed his desire
to be in a position to announce the news to the population by
October 17. Paul said, ''There is very little chance that
this CEP will stay in place,'' but he did not think the
President had yet made that decision. Alyans' goal, according
to Paul, is to achieve elections as mandated by the
Constitution. Because the current CEP is controversial, the
best solution is to form a new CEP through a consensus
process that "puts everyone at ease around a new provisional
electoral council."

Secondary Parties, Civil Society, Private Sector Voice
Opposition
--------------


8. (U) Many smaller political parties and civil society
groups have publicly criticized the proceedings. Himmler
Rebu, leader of GREH (Grand Union for the Development of
Haiti),estimates that the major political parties'
acquiescence to preval's plan to dissolve the CEP amounts to
''an act of cowardice and treachery.'' ADEBAH (Democratic
Alliance to Build Haiti) leader Rene Julien commented that
although he favors disbanding the current CEP, he fears the
GoH will not follow through on its assurances to form a new
CEP to manage Senate elections. Jean Andre Victor of the
Haitian Liberal Party stated, ''We recommend the government
allow independent institutions like the CEP to function.''
President of the Haitian Chamber of Commerce Jean Robert
Argant said he believes the current CEP is capable of
organizing the next elections. Civil Society Initiative
Executive Director (and former Group of 184 member) Rosny
Desroches called the ''decision'' to dismiss the CEP a
violation of the Constitution, and urged the international
community to ''fix'' the problem. Additionally, the
Protestant Federation, the Conference of Catholic Bishops and
the Episcopal Church have all spoken out in favor of keeping
the current CEP. (Note: Each of these groups has a
representative in the current CEP. End note.)

Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) Opposition is emerging to GoH plans to reconstitute
the CEP, delay elections and ultimately change the
Constitution. Preval's hesitancy on the CEP issue shows he is

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sensitive to domestic criticism of his elections plans,
including criticism from social groups outside the narrow
political party leadership. Nevertheless, strong support for
Preval from Lespwa, Alyans and Union; the readiness of OPL
and Fusion to go along with the President in the interest of
getting to the Senate elections; combined with a Haitian
tradition of strong presidential power, may well tip the
balance in favor of the President, at least on the CEP issue.
Reforming the Constitution will be more difficult for Preval
to manage.
SANDERSON