PRESIDENT, SENATE PROPOSE ELECTIONS "PAUSE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PORT AU PRINCE 001546

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/EX AND WHA/CAR
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HA
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT, SENATE PROPOSE ELECTIONS "PAUSE"

REF: PORT AU PRINCE 1533

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Classified By: Ambassador Janet A. Sanderson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (C) Summary: President Preval and Senate President Joseph
Lambert are seeking support from Haitian political parties
and institutions and the international community for a plan
to put off elections for two years and to rework the Haitian
constitution. Preval and Lambert, citing the cumbersome and
expensive elections cycle, hope to build broad consensus
among Haitians -- from civil society to students to business
leaders -- that this change is needed. The plan is still
tentative, and neither leader appears to have thought fully
through the implications of their plan. Lambert backtracked
partially when told the USG is ready to help finance upcoming
Senate elections and appeared stymied by preliminary
questions about the plan from the Ambassador. They both say
the plan will not proceed without support from the
international community. Although the elections cycle and
the Haitian Constitution do need reform, this
extra-constitutional solution contains many hazards for this
tender democracy. Preval and Lambert are looking for a
strong signal from the international community and especially
the United States. Preval suggested a six-week breathing
space from the international community for him to build
domestic consensus. Based on what we know thus far, we
believe the risks of this proposal outweigh the advantages.
End Summary.

Preval: Postpone Elections, Change the Constitution
-------------- --------------


2. (C) The Ambassador and her Canadian, Brazilian, and
French counterparts sought a meeting September 19 with
President Preval to discuss the long delayed preparations for
Senate and indirect elections. Preval unexpectedly unveiled
a proposal which puts the entire electoral cycle on hold for
two years and begins the drafting of a new constitution.
Preval said the plan originated with Senate President Lambert
and resulted from the two leaders' strong belief that Haiti
could neither finance nor organize the nine or so
constitutionally mandated elections of various government
bodies through February 2011. Although many details were
unclear, what Preval called the "Lambert plan" would extend
in place all senators until 2012, giving all incumbents a
six-year term. (Note: One-third of the senators were elected
to two-year terms and are currently up for re-election. End
note.) In the meantime, the government would look to
drafting a new constitution. The new constitution would,
inter alia, synchronize the election calendar, setting one
general election every five or six years, and end Haiti's
staggered elections that are logistically and financially so
burdensome. Preval stressed that he intends to leave office
on February 7, 2011. However, later in the conversation, he
said he would not be adverse to staying on until 2013,
''...if it made sense, but that is not my current plan.''


3. (C) Preval stressed that this proposal is preliminary and
fully dependent on developing a broad consensus with
political parties, civil society, the private sector, and key
organizations such as the church. He said it will not
proceed without endorsement from the international community.
Preval told the Ambassadors that the consultation process is
already underway: he met with some senior political leaders
the previous day and would meet with Fusion and OPL on Sept.

21. Preval believes that the parties - with the exception of
Lavalas - will be supportive; he said the parties have come
to realize that they will not be able to win big in
forthcoming elections and are looking for a way to reorganize
and refinance them. He also believes the Haitian people will
support this plan. Preval suggested that the international
community give him six weeks breathing room for him to build
this domestic consensus.


4. (C) All the Ambassadors expressed strong concern about

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how this plan would affect the development of key Haitian
democratic institutions. They raised specific questions
about timelines, deadlines for discussion and development of
consensus, and possible alternatives. The Ambassador noted
that the proposal could open a political Pandora's Box for
Haiti and undermine rebuilding efforts in other key areas,
particularly in the economy. Ambassador Paulo Cordeiro
(Brazil) told Preval at the close of the meeting that his
government was there to support Preval, and if he was able to
develop a consensus at home, Brasilia would not take issue
with the plan. Ambassador Claude Boucher (Canada) was more
nuanced, but he told Ambassador Sanderson later that he
believes Preval and Lambert should be given room to try to
get the nation on board. Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso
Amorim told the Ambassador during a short September 21 visit
to Haiti that he was withholding judgment pending examination
of the details. However, after the international community
had invested so much into getting Haiti this far, he does not
want to upset Haiti's record of election success or to
undermine government legitimacy.

Senator Lambert: We Want Your Support
--------------


5. (C) The Ambassador called on President of the Senate
Joseph Lambert on September 21. Seven other Senators were
also present. Lambert led off by declaring that the
frequency of elections in Haiti was becoming a source of
instability, dividing the country, political parties, and
even families. Haiti, he claimed, also lacked the resources
to fund them. Repeating Preval's proposal, Lambert said he
believes the Parliament and the Executive can reach consensus
and, with the support of the international community, pass a
law to delay all parliamentary and local elections, perhaps
until 2011. With yet another election now looming -- to
renew one-third of the Senate -- the solution is extend the
terms of current officials up for reelection, and then hold
all elections, including the presidential election, at the
same time. His top priorities, he said, are stability, along
with progress and development. This includes convoking a
''constituent assembly'' to draft a new constitution. Like
Preval, Lambert stressed the need to consult with unions,students, and other social organizations, as well s the
importance of buy-in from the internationa community.


6. (C) The Ambassador questioned th constitutionality of
such a plan, and noted tha upsetting the constitutional
framework could neatively affect other aspects of Haiti's
developmnt such as the economy. Lambert pointed to Articl
95 of the 1987 Constitution, which states, ''Sentors are
elected for six years and are eligible ndefinitely.'' He
reiterated some of the challeges posed by the upcoming
senatorial elections, saying that the Provisional Electoral
Council (CEP) mandate does not include the senatorial or
indirect elections. A new provisional CEP will be needed.
He also said that if one-third of the senators leave office,
leaving the Senate with just 19 members (Note: one Senator
has died and no by-election to fill his seat has been held.
End note) garnering the 16 members needed for a quorum would
be difficult and the Senate could easily become legally
non-functional ("caduque").


7. (C) While refraining from passing judgment on the
proposal at this time, the Ambassador emphasized that despite
the difficulties of frequent elections, elections are an
essential aspect of Haiti's march toward democracy. Haiti
has recently conducted three of them successfully, and these
have been the foundation of the legitimacy of Haiti's
government. She also expressed strong concern that this
appeared to be an open-ended process, and asked if the Senate
would propose specific timelines. The Ambassador argued that
this plan would ''change the rules of the game'' after
citizens had put their trust in their elected officials, and
would only compound Haiti's long history of governance
problems. Haiti needs a new political tradition that
includes the open, transparent transfer of power and

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adherence to the Constitution.


8. (C) Lambert asked how Haiti can have elections and stand
up a new CEP, or somehow empower the existing CEP, and also
come up with financing, to hold the elections for one-third
of the Senate. The Ambassador stated that the USG has USD 4
million set aside for elections, and other donors are
prepared to give money as well. (Note: Lambert and the other
Senators appeared surprised by this statement, although
Lambert has been told this before. End note.) Retreating
somewhat from his earlier arguments, Lambert said this was
good news, and noted that the Senate had just heard from
former CEP Director General Jacques Bernard that it is still
possible to have Senate elections by the end of 2007. The
Ambassador emphasized that to fund these elections, the USG
needs to see a timeline and a GOH election budget, so that we
have some assurance that the elections will indeed be held.
Senator Evelyn Cheron (Fanmi Lavalas, West Department)
pressed the Ambassador on the question of financing, asking
whether the international community would continue to fund
elections if they occurred every two years. The Ambassador
responded that lack of funding is an insufficient excuse to
cancel elections. Lambert conceded that point.


9. (C) The Ambassador agreed to return to the Senate on
September 24 with her counterparts from Canada, Brazil and
France in order to continue the discussion.

CEP Unraveling?
--------------


10. (C) Meanwhile, the President continues to attack the
provisional CEP. In his September 19 meeting with the
Ambassadors, Preval took serious issue with the current CEP
and noted that some members are under investigation for
fraud. Preval met with eight of the nine CEP counselors on
September 18, but Counselor Pierre-Richard Duchemin told
Poloff September 19 that the President did not resolve any
outstanding questions. Preval told the counselors he is
working to build consensus around the elections issue and his
next step is to get Parliament's input. He also brought up
accusations of corruption against the CEP. Haitian
newspapers reported on September 20 that Chief Prosecutor
Claudy Gassant was planning to call in CEP counselors for
questioning about the accusations against them; Preval noted
that audits had uncovered possible misuse of funds.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) In and of itself, Preval and Lambert are correct
that the elections calendar is cumbersome and the
constitution unworkable in key areas. However, a two-year
"pause" on elections -- and even more so, attempting to
reshape significantly the constitution during that period --
could undermine the delicate political and social consensus
that has emerged in Haiti since Preval's election. The vague
and open-ended nature of the Preval/Lambert consensus
building plan compounds our concerns. Subverting the
calendar of elections that have given Preval and the
legislature their legitimacy could put this tender democracy
on a long and slippery slope. Given what we know at this
point, it appears to us that the risks of the Preval/Lambert
plan outweigh the possible benefits.
SANDERSON