MONTENEGRO STARTS ON LONG PATH TO NATO

UNCLAS PODGORICA 000064

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL MARR MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO STARTS ON LONG PATH TO NATO



1. (U) Summary and Introduction: Montenegro started down its
long road to possible NATO membership last December 14, when it
joined NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP),after the invitation
from the Riga Summit. The campaign to gain popular support for
NATO membership will likely prove difficult. Only 36.6 percent
support joining NATO in a February 2007 poll, with 34.6 percent
opposed. Support for the EU, in contrast, is at 74.0 percent,
with only 8.4 percent opposed. Poll numbers have been relatively
unchanged since 2003. End summary.




2. (U) In Montenegro, the strongest opposition to NATO comes
from self-described Serbs, supporters of the political
opposition. They view NATO as either the military organization
that bombed Serbia, and the main airport and some military
installations in Montenegro, in 1999; or as a military alliance
that does America's bidding -- or both. But even government
supporters - half of the populace -- are not unified in support
of the GoM's commitment to join NATO. A senior member of
President Vujanovic's staff told poloff March 5 that they see
the most receptive audience as those with "no opinion" - 28.8
percent in the last poll. He added that only 5 to 10 percent of
those opposed could be won over to support. If and when the day
comes for Montenegro to consider an offer to join NATO, a
referendum on the question is very likely. The opposition has
already requested such a vote, and members of the President's
office and MFA have told poloff that the government would likely
accept the request when it became timely.




3. (U) Post, in cooperation with USNATO, has sponsored three
journalists on "NATO Tours." One of those journalists is
currently producing a documentary on NATO for broadcast on
public TV; an excerpt has already aired Post is also working
with other NATO embassies here on public diplomacy outreach to a
broader cross-section of the populace, including schoolchildren.
NATO's International Staff (I.S.) has recently begun periodic
visits to Montenegro, and includes a public diplomacy officer
and program component in those trips. There are reports that
NATO IS may open an office here.




4. (U) The Ministry of Defense is new, and still small - only
ten staff at present, including the Minister. The Dutch have
begun a two-year, Euro 620 thousand project to help stand up the
MoD, to be implemented by the D.C.-based NGO The Jefferson
Institute. The Jefferson team told poloff March 9 that a key
element of their program will be assisting the MoD stand up a
public affairs/legislative affairs unit, to be charged with
proactive outreach on the role of the military in independent
Montenegro, and on Montenegro's partnership with NATO.




5. (U) Comment: As shown by the polls, public opinion on NATO is
frozen. Post believes that stereotypes of NATO are widely held
(even among supporters),and that a sustained public diplomacy
campaign will be needed to inform the citizenry, and create
broad and genuine support for NATO's political and military
agenda -- and greater Montenegrin activity in PfP. End comment.

BARNES