AHTISAARI PLAN CAUSES MILD REACTIONS IN MONTENEGRO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000029

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PREF MW SR
SUBJECT: AHTISAARI PLAN CAUSES MILD REACTIONS IN MONTENEGRO


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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: THE GOM IS URGING PRISTINA AND BELGRADE TO
FIND A SOLUTION, BUT IS REMAINING OTHERWISE VAGUE ON THE
AHTISAARI PACKAGE IN ORDER TO AVOID ALIENATING EITHER OF ITS
NEIGHBORS. OPPOSITION REACTION TO THE PLAN HAS BEEN MOSTLY
PRO-SERBIAN; ALBANIAN PARTIES ARE RESPONDING TO IT WITH
MODERATION OR REFRAINING FROM COMMENT. THE GENERAL PUBLIC HAS
SHOWN LITTLE INTEREST, WHILE SOME REFUGEES/IDPS FROM THE PAST
ARE EVEN NOW EXPRESSING INTEREST IN RETURNING TO KOSOVO. END
SUMMARY.

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GOM ENGAGED IN BALANCING ACT

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2. (SBU) THE GOM IS ATTEMPTING TO STRADDLE THE FENCE WITH
REGARD TO THE AHTISAARI PACKAGE FOR KOSOVO. INTERIOR MINISTER
KALAMPEROVIC EXPLAINED TO DCM ON FEBRUARY 6 THAT MONTENEGRO HAS
GOOD RELATIONS WITH BOTH SERBIA AND KOSOVO, AND DOES NOT INTEND
TO ALIENATE EITHER OF THEM BY SUPPORTING ONE SIDE OVER THE OTHER
ON THE ISSUE.




3. (U) THIS STRATEGY WAS EVIDENT IN THE STATEMENT ISSUED BY
PRESIDENT VUJANOVIC ON FEBRUARY 6. HE TOLD RADIO MONTENEGRO
THAT BELGRADE AND PRISTINA SHOULD NEGOTIATE BASED ON AHTISAARI'S
PLAN IN ORDER "TO SECURE A SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION" TO THE KOSOVO
ISSUE. HE SAID SUCH A SOLUTION WOULD BE IN THE INTERESTS OF
BELGRADE, PRISTINA, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND ESPECIALLY
THE REGION, REQUIRING "A LESSER SCOPE OF FOREIGN MONITORING,
REDUCING THE EXPENSE AND TIME OF IMPLEMENTING THE SOLUTION." HE
ADDED THAT MONTENEGRO HAS NO REASON TO CHANGE ITS STATED
POSITION TOWARD THE KOSOVO ISSUE OR TO "OFFER FORMULAS" FOR
SOLVING IT, BUT THAT IT WAS "NATURAL FOR BELGRADE AND PRISTINA
TO AGREE ON THE MATTER, WITH THE PARTICIPATION OF THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY."

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OPPOSITION MOSTLY BACKS SERBIA

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4. (U) OPPOSITION PARTIES THAT CAMPAIGNED AGAINST MONTENEGRIN
INDEPENDENCE (UNSURPRISINGLY) OPPOSE THE AHTISAARI PLAN IN
PUBLIC STATEMENTS. THE SERBIAN PEOPLE'S PARTY (SNS, THE LEADING
MEMBER OF THE "SERBIAN LIST" COALITION) SAID AHTISAARI'S
PROPOSAL PAVED THE WAY FOR KOSOVO'S INDEPENDENCE. THE PEOPLE'S
PARTY (NS) AND DEMOCRATIC SERBIAN PARTY (DSS) REITERATED THAT
ALBANIAN SEPARATISM IN KOSOVO AND MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE ARE
CLOSELY CONNECTED ISSUES. THE SOCIALIST PEOPLES PARTY (SNP,
FORMERLY PRO-SERBIAN, BUT NOW ATTEMPTING TO RE-BRAND ITSELF AS A
MULTI-ETHNIC, CIVIC PARTY) STATED THAT ANY SUPPORT BY ANYONE
FROM MONTENEGRO WOULD PROVOKE INSTABILITY AND INSECURITY IN
MONTENEGRO. THE MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE (PZP),WHICH WAS OFFICIALLY
NEUTRAL ON MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE, AGAIN ATTEMPTED TO MAINTAIN
THEIR OPTIONS WITH AS MANY VOTERS AS POSSIBLE BY DESCRIBING
AHTISAARIS PLAN AS PREMATURE.




5. (SBU) SNS LEADER ANDRIJA MANDIC TOLD CHARGE FEBRUARY 8 THAT
HIS PARTY WOULD SUPPORT THE SERBIAN PRIME MINISTER ON THE KOSOVO
ISSUE, REJECTING THE "BIASED" AHTISAARI PACKAGE. HE WENT ON TO
SAY THAT BELGRADE AND PRISTINA MUST RESOLVE THE ISSUE BETWEEN
THEMSELVES, "IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SERBIAN CONSTITUTION." WHEN
PUSHED, HE AGREED THAT THERE COULD BE NO REVERSION TO THE
PRE-1999 SITUATION, BUT NOTED THAT THE LAST 15 YEARS HAD BEEN
THE MOST DIFFICULT EVER FOR "MY PEOPLE." HE ADDED THAT THE
KOSOVO ISSUE WAS ALWAYS GOING TO BE THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF
THE DISSOLUTION OF YUGOSLAVIA, ESPECIALLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE
RELATIVELY PAINLESS SEPARATION OF MONTENEGRO. COMMENT: HE NOTED
LATER IN THE CONVERSATION THAT, ALTHOUGH HE HAD OPPOSED
INDEPENDENCE, HIS SIDE LOST AND HE WAS NOW A CITIZEN OF
MONTENEGRO, ABIDING BY MONTENEGRIN LAW AND INVOLVED IN LAUNCHING
THE NEW COUNTRY BY ENGAGING IN THE DRAFTING THE CONSTITUTION.
ALSO, DESPITE HIS RHETORIC, MANDIC HAS A RECORD OF REJECTING
EXTRA-LEGAL OR VIOLENT ACTIONS. FOR EXAMPLE, DURING THE NATO
BOMBING CAMPAIGN HE PROTESTED, BUT DID NOT ENGAGE IN ANYTHING
MORE EXTREME. END COMMENT.




6. (U) STATEMENTS BY ALBANIAN PARTIES HAVE BEEN NOTABLY
MODERATE. DEMOCRATIC UNION OF ALBANIANS (DUA, A CLOSE ALLY OF
THE GOVERNING DPS) PRESIDENT FERHAT DINOSA SAID THE PARTY WOULD
SUPPORT WHATEVER THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DECIDED ON KOSOVO'S
STATUS. THE PRESIDENT OF THE ALBANIAN ALTERNATIVE (AA) VASELJ
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SINISTAJ STATED THAT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GIVE AN ANSWER AS TO
WHETHER MONTENEGRO SHOULD FOLLOW THE LEAD OF WORLD POWERS IN
RECOGNIZING KOSOVO'S INDEPENDENCE, BUT NOTED THAT KOSOVO WAS
AMONG THE FIRST WHO HAD "RECOGNIZED" MONTENEGRO. LEADER OF THE
DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE (DSCG),MEHMET BARDHI, HAS DECLINED TO
COMMENT ON AHTISAARIS PLAN.

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COMMENT: MONTENEGRIN PUBLIC UNFAZED

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7. (U) COMMENT: REACTION TO THE PLAN FROM THE PUBLIC AT LARGE
HAS BEEN VERY LOW-KEY, BORDERING ON APATHY. HOWEVER, THOSE MOST
PERSONALLY INVESTED IN THE KOSOVO OUTCOME, PAST REFUGEES/IDPS,
MAY BE REGARDED AS THE CANARIES IN THIS COAL MINE. POST HEARD
ONE HOPEFUL INDICATOR IN CONVERSATIONS WITH LOCAL NGOS WHO WORK
ON REPATRIATION. THEY REPORT THAT INTEREST IN RETURNING TO
KOSOVO IS UNDIMINISHED, AND EVEN TOLD OF A FAMILY OF SERBS WHO
APPEARED IN THEIR OFFICE THE MONDAY AFTER THE PLAN WAS ANNOUNCED
TO APPLY TO GO BACK AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, INTEREST
IN "GO AND SEE" VISITS, WHERE POTENTIAL RETURNEES GO TO HAVE A
LOOK AT CONDITIONS BACK HOME BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION, IS
UNABATED. MONTENEGRIN REFUGEE COMMISSIONER ZELJKO SOFRANAC
ACCOMPANIED A GROUP OF SEVERAL SUCH FAMILIES TO PEJA/PEC
FEBRUARY 6.
BARNES
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