MONTENEGRO DIVIDED ON NATO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000223

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL MARR MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO DIVIDED ON NATO

REF: A. A) PODGORICA 154


B. B) PODGORICA 140

PODGORICA 00000223 001.3 OF 002


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY




1. THIS IS AN ACTION CABLE. PLEASE SEE PARAGRAPH SIX.




2. (SBU) SUMMARY: RECENT PUBLIC OPINION POLLS SHOW MONTENEGRO
STILL DIVIDED ON THE PROSPECT OF NATO MEMBERSHIP. WITH ONE POLL
ACTUALLY SHOWING OPPONENTS OUTNUMBERING SUPPORTERS, THE GOM IS
LOOKING TO REORGANIZE ITS APPROACH ON THE ISSUE TO CITIZENS, TO
COUNTER BOTH THE LACK OF INFORMATION AND MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT
NATO. THE GOM HAS MADE CONTACT WITH THE NATO INTERNATIONAL
STAFF AND THE U.S. EMBASSY, LOOKING FOR SUPPORT IN DEVISING A
MORE EFFECTIVE OUTREACH CAMPAIGN. END SUMMARY.



POLLS SHOW SUPPORT FOR NATO SLIPPING

--------------




3. (U) ACCORDING TO THE JUNE 2007 PUBLIC OPINION POLL CONDUCTED
BY THE CENTER FOR DEMOCRACY (CEDEM),32.9 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
SUPPORTED MONTENEGRO'S ACCESSION TO NATO WHILE 39.7 PERCENT WERE
OPPOSED, A SIX PERCENT DECLINE IN SUPPORT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2007
POLL.




4. (U) ANOTHER JUNE POLL, FROM THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE
(NDI),SHOWED THAT 53 PERCENT BELIEVE THAT A DECISION TO JOIN
NATO SHOULD BE MADE BY REFERENDUM, WHILE 38 PERCENT BELIEVE THAT
THE DECISION SHOULD BE MADE IN PARLIAMENT. RESPONDENTS WERE ALSO
ASKED WHAT NATO ACCESSION WOULD MEAN FOR MONTENEGRO:



PERCENT

20 FIGHT OTHERS WARS

15 STEP TOWARD EU

12 AID DEFENSE/SECURITY SECTORS

12 MORE INVESTMENT

10 DAMAGE TO TOURISM

32 DON'T KNOW/NO ANSWER



OPPOSITION TO GOM HURTING NATO IMAGE

--------------




5. (SBU) THE DECLINE IN NATO SUPPORT FOLLOWS A PERIOD IN WHICH
THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION HAS BEEN HAMMERING THE GOM ON ITS
HANDLING OF DEFENSE ISSUES, SHARPLY CRITICIZING THE
"NON-TRANSPARENT MANNER" IN WHICH THE GOM CONCLUDED A SOFA AND
AN "ARTICLE 98" AGREEMENT WITH THE USG (REF A). EXCEPT FOR THE
MINISCULE LIBERAL PARTY (1 SEAT IN THE 81 SEAT PARLIAMENT),THE
OPPOSITION ATTACKS ARE NOT MOTIVATED BY ANTIPATHY TO NATO AS
MUCH AS ENMITY TOWARDS THE GOVERNMENT. POST NOTES THE LEADER OF
THE SERBIAN LIST, ANDRIJA MANDIC, HAS TOLD US THAT HE WOULD LIKE
TO SEE HIS PARTY COME OUT IN SUPPORT OF NATO MEMBERSHIP (REF B),
AND VISITED THE USS EMORY S. LAND ON MAY 21 DURING ITS VISIT TO
MONTENEGRO. HE WAS THE ONLY SENIOR POLITICAL PARTY LEADER TO
ATTEND THE SHIPBOARD RECEPTION.



ASSISTANCE IN SHAPING NEW APPROACH SOUGHT

--------------




6. (SBU) IN A JUNE 25 MEETING WITH CHARGE, FM ROCEN WAS SHARPLY
CRITICAL OF WHAT HE VIEWS AS THE INEFFECTIVE ROLE BEING PLAYED
BY SAVO KENTERA, SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE EURO-ATLANTIC CLUB OF
B T
#0223
N
-- END OF ERRORED MESSAGE --

PODGORICA 00000223 002.3 OF 002


MONTENEGRO, THE ASSOCIATE MEMBER OF THE ATLANTIC TREATY
ASSOCIATION FOR MONTENEGRO. THE MINISTER SAID HE HAS ASKED FOR
ASSISTANCE FROM THE NATO INTERNATIONAL STAFF IN SHAPING A NEW
PUBLIC RELATIONS APPROACH, PART OF WHICH WOULD INCLUDE COMMON
POINTS TO BE MADE BY ALL GOM MINISTERS AND OFFICIALS. HE ALSO
SPECIFICALLY REQUESTED US ASSISTANCE IN DEVELOPING A GOVERNMENT
WIDE NATO COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY. CHARGE AGREED TO PASS HIS
REQUEST TO WASHINGTON.



COMMENT

--------------




7. (SBU) RECENT EVENTS, INCLUDING THE DOWNTURN IN SUPPORT FOR
NATO, CONTROVERSY OVER THE U.S.-MONTENEGRO SOFA AND STRONG
PUBLIC PRESSURE LEADING TO CANCELLATION OF THE PRIVATIZATION OF
THE LARGEST POWER PLANT, HAVE UNDERSCORED THE GOM'S FAILURE TO
INTEGRATE A STRONG PUBLIC OUTREACH COMPONENT IN ITS
POST-INDEPENDENCE EFFORTS. ROCEN'S COMMENTS INDICATE THAT SOME
WITHIN THE GOM ARE STARTING TO RECOGNIZE THAT OMISSION; HOWEVER,
AS SHOWN BY ROCEN'S OTHER COMMENTS DISPARAGING OPPOSITION LEADER
MANDIC (SEPTEL),THERE IS STILL A STRONG RESISTANCE TO MAKING
TACTICAL POLITICAL ALLIANCES TO ADVANCE PROGRESS ON ISSUES OF
CENTRAL CONCERN TO THE GOM.
BARNES
B T
#0223
N
-- END OF ERRORED MESSAGE --