MONTENEGRIN OPPOSITION OPINES AGAINST SOFA, ARTICLE 98

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000154

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN OPPOSITION OPINES AGAINST SOFA, ARTICLE 98

REF: PODGORICA 146

PODGORICA 00000154 001.3 OF 002


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY




1. (SBU) SUMMARY: OPPOSITION POLITICIANS IN MONTENEGRO CONTINUE
TO MAKE HAY OF THE RECENT USG-GOM SOFA AND ARTICLE 98 AGREEMENTS
(REF). POST HAS ENERGETICALLY COUNTERED, PUBLICLY AND
PRIVATELY, THE NUMEROUS MISUNDERSTANDING AND MISSTATEMENTS ABOUT
THE AGREEMENTS. CONSEQUENTLY, ATTACKS ON THE SOFA WITH THE USG
HAVE TRAILED OFF, BUT A PERCEIVED EU HOSTILITY TO ARTICLE 98 HAS
HELPED FUEL THE FIRE. THE OPPOSITION HAS CRITICIZED PRESIDENT
VUJANOVIC AND THE GOM FOR CONCLUDING BOTH AGREEMENTS WITHOUT
PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL. HOWEVER, THE LEADER OF THE LARGEST
OPPOSITION GROUP CONFESSED TO EMBOFFS MAY 7 THAT HE IS JUST
LOOKING TO USE EITHER AGREEMENT AS A MEANS TO ATTACK THE
GOVERNMENT, IN ANY WAY POSSIBLE. END SUMMARY.




2. (U) OPPOSITION POLITICIANS HAVE CONTINUED TO RAISE OBJECTIONS
TO THE USG-GOM SOFA AND ARTICLE 98 (INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT
- ICC) AGREEMENTS. U.S. EMBASSY INTERVENTIONS, PUBLIC AND
PRIVATE, HAVE HELPED DISPEL MANY BUT NOT ALL MISUNDERSTANDINGS
ABOUT THE TEXTS AND PURPOSES OF THE AGREEMENTS. PARTICULARLY
WITH RESPECT TO THE SOFA, THIS HAS DEFUSED MOST OF THE MYTHS,
E.G., THE SOFA ALLOWS THE USG TO BUILD HEAVILY FORTIFIED BASES
RIGHT ON TOURIST BEACHES. POST NOTES THAT THE MAY 7 GOM TRANSIT
AGREEMENT WITH EUFOR WAS ALSO CRITICIZED, BUT TO A FAR LESSER
EXTENT THAN THE US-MONTENEGRO SOFA. CRITICISM OVER THE ARTICLE
98 AGREEMENT IS FUELED, IN PART, BY PERCEIVED EU HOSTILITY TO
SUCH AGREEMENTS - EVEN THOUGH THE EU HAS NOT OFFICIALLY SAID
ANYTHING IN PUBLIC ABOUT THE APRIL 19 AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE USG
AND GOM.




3. (U) RECENTLY, THE OPPOSITION ATTACKS HAVE FOCUSED ON
ALLEGATIONS THAT PRESIDENT VUJANOVIC AND THE GOM VIOLATED THE
1992 CONSTITUTION BY CONCLUDING BOTH AGREEMENTS WITHOUT SEEKING
PARLIAMENTARY RATIFICATION. POLOFF ON MAY 8 UNDERSCORED TO THE
PARLIAMENT'S DEFENSE AND SECURITY OVERSIGHT BOARD (INCLUDING
OPPOSITION MPS) THAT, IN THE U.S., NEITHER AGREEMENT REQUIRED
SENATE RATIFICATION, A STEP RESERVED FOR TREATIES. (COMMENT:
THE OFFICIAL LANGUAGE OF MONTENEGRO (A.K.A. SERBIAN) IS PARTLY
TO BLAME FOR THIS CONTROVERSY, AS IS THE LITERAL NAIVETE OF
MONTENEGRO IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS. THE LOCAL WORD "UGOVOR" CAN BE
TRANSLATED AS BOTH TREATY AND AGREEMENT (AND CONTRACT),ALTHOUGH
THE EMBASSY AND GOM HAVE BEEN CAREFUL TO REFER TO THE SOFA AS A
"SPORAZUM" (ANOTHER WORD FOR AN AGREEMENT OR UNDERSTANDING),AND
TO THE ARTICLE 98 AGREEMENT AS AN EXCHANGE OF "NOTES." THE 1992
CONSTITUTION STATES THE PARLIAMENT WILL RATIFY "UGOVORI."
ADDITIONALLY, AS MONTENEGRO HAS BEEN INDEPENDENT FOR LESS THAN A
YEAR, THERE IS LITTLE RECENT LOCAL PRECEDENT FOR DISTINGUISHING
BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS AND TREATIES. END COMMENT.)




4. (SBU) DCM AND POLOFF MET ON MAY 7 WITH NEBOJSA MEDOJEVIC,
LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION PARTY MOVEMENT FOR CHANGES (PZP - 11
SEATS IN THE 81-SEAT PARLIAMENT) AND SUBSEQUENTLY WITH ANDRIJA
MANDIC, LEADER OF BOTH THE LARGEST OPPOSITION GROUPING (SERBIAN
LIST - 12 SEATS) AND OF THE SERBIAN PEOPLES PARTY (8 SEATS AS
PART OF THE LISTS 12). BOTH MANDIC AND MEDOJEVIC HAD PUBLICLY
CHARACTERIZED THE AGREEMENTS, WHICH THEY TEND TO CONFLATE, AS
ANTI-EUROPEAN. HOWEVER, THEY BOTH SHOWED A GOOD KNOWLEDGE OF
WHAT WAS ACTUALLY IN THE AGREEMENTS, AND A PERSONAL DISPOSITION
TO PURSUE GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. BUT, AS MANDIC
CONFESSED, HE SAW THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A CONTROVERSY OVER THE
AGREEMENTS AS A CHANCE TO PLAY TO HIS NATIONALIST VOTER BASE BY
ATTACKING THE GOM. INITIALLY, SAID MANDIC, HE WAS GOING TO MAKE
TRANSPARENCY THE ISSUE, BUT HE JOVIALLY ADMITTED THAT THE GOM
THWARTED THAT TACK BY POSTING THE AGREEMENTS ON THE GOM WEBSITE
-- SO HE SHIFTED TO THE PROCESS BY WHICH THE GOM HAD CONCLUDED
THE AGREEMENTS, AS WELL AS TO DISTORTIONS OF THE SUBSTANCE.




5. (U) THE SOFA AND ARTICLE 98 WERE TOUCHED UPON DURING POLOFF'S
MEETING WITH THE PARLIAMENTARY DEFENSE AND SECURITY BOARD MAY 9
(A MEETING REQUESTED BY THE EMBASSY A MONTH AGO). POLOFF
UNDERSCORED THAT FOR THE USG, THESE ARE AGREEMENTS, NOT
REQUIRING U.S. SENATE RATIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST
CONTROVERSY CAME FROM ATTACKS ON THE VERY HOLDING OF THE MEETING
ITSELF, DELIVERED BY THE OPPOSITION PEOPLE'S PARTY (NS) AND
DEMOCRATIC SERBIAN PARTY (DSS - VERY NATIONALIST). NS AND DSS
SAID IT WAS IMPROPER, "UNDEMOCRATIC" AND A VIOLATION OF
PARLIAMENTARY RULES FOR THE "U.S. EMBASSY TO CONVENE A SESSION
B T
#0154
N
-- END OF ERRORED MESSAGE --

PODGORICA 00000154 002.3 OF 002


OF PARLIAMENT OR ITS BOARDS." (NOTE: THIS WAS NOT INTENDED TO
BE A FORMAL SESSION, AND IN FACT THE MEETING WAS REQUESTED LONG
BEFORE THE SOFA STORY BROKE. END NOTE.) REPRESENTATIVES OF
OTHER PARTIES, INCLUDING IN THE OPPOSITION, DISAGREED AND
WELCOMED THE INITIATIVE AS SUPPORTING TRANSPARENCY AND DIALOG.




6. (SBU) FM ROCEN TOLD CHARGE MAY 8 THAT THE GERMAN AND
SLOVENIAN AMBASSADORS HAVE RAISED THE ARTICLE 98 AGREEMENT WITH
HIM. THE FM SAID THE CONTROVERSY WAS VERY MUCH BUSINESS AS
USUAL. HE NOTED THAT IF MONTENEGRO HADNT SIGNED A SOFA, THEY
WOULD HAVE BEEN CRITICIZED FOR BEING IN A CLASS WITH BELARUS.
ON ARTICLE 98, HE NOTED THAT WHEN MONTENEGRO JOINS NATO THIS
WILL CEASE TO BE AN ISSUE, AND REALLY SHOULDN'T POSE A PROBLEM
WITH THE EUROPEANS. HE THANKED CHARGE FOR THE EMBASSY'S
INTERVENTIONS IN THE LOCAL PRESS. HE WAS ESPECIALLY PLEASED WITH
THE SUBSTANCE AND TIMING OF MAY 7 CEREMONY MARKING OVER 1000
USAID LOCAL COMMUNITY PROJECTS, AS IT REMINDED PEOPLE OF ALL THE
U.S. HAS DONE FOR MONTENEGRO.




7. (SBU) COMMENT: PERHAPS THE MOST USEFUL OBSERVATION IN THE
PRESS TO DATE CAME FROM PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER RANKO KRIVOKAPIC
(SDP). HE SUPPORTED THE AGREEMENTS, AND SAID THE CONTROVERSY
UNDERSCORED THE NEED FOR MONTENEGRO'S NEW CONSTITUTION
(CURRENTLY IN DRAFT) NOT TO PUT OBSTACLES IN THE WAY OF
EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION. END COMMENT.
BARNES
B T
#0154
N
-- END OF ERRORED MESSAGE --