Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07PARIS4522
2007-11-19 09:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

USD/P EDELMAN DISCUSSES AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN,

Tags:  PREL PARM MARR MCAP AF IR RU PK GG FR 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 004522 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2017
TAGS: PREL PARM MARR MCAP AF IR RU PK GG FR
SUBJECT: USD/P EDELMAN DISCUSSES AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN,
IRAN, MISSILE DEFENSE, RUSSIA, NATO, ESDP, AND GEORGIA WITH
GOF

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4 b and d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 004522

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2017
TAGS: PREL PARM MARR MCAP AF IR RU PK GG FR
SUBJECT: USD/P EDELMAN DISCUSSES AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN,
IRAN, MISSILE DEFENSE, RUSSIA, NATO, ESDP, AND GEORGIA WITH
GOF

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: On November 9, USD/P Eric Edelman met with
senior GOF officials to discuss Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran,
missile defense, Russia, NATO and ESDP, and Georgia. There
are internal discussions about future French contributions to
Afghanistan, but there is no consensus yet on fielding a PRT.
French officials worry about shoring up European public
opinion on ISAF and don,t want French deployments to be used
to replace other European allies. GOF officials expressed
concerns about the unstable situation in Pakistan and worried
about a weakened Musharraf. France recognizes the legitimacy
of U.S. missile defense interests, but is not ready to
recognize missile defense as a NATO project. On Russia, the
French expressed unhappiness with recent developments on INF,
but acknowledged Russian intransigence on a wide range of
issues. European reservations on MAP for Georgia have grown
following recent developments in Georgia. Finally, the GOF
would appreciate a positive statement from the USG on
strengthening European defense capabilities.


2. (SBU) USD/P Edelman,s interlocutors included Deputy
Military Adviser Col. Antoine Noguier and Advisor for the
Americas Damien Loras of the French Presidency (Elysee);
Director of Strategic Affairs Philippe Carre at the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs; and Director of Strategic Affairs at the
Ministry of Defense, Michel Miraillet. USD/P Edelman also
met with Defense Minister Herve Morin (reported septel). END
SUMMARY.


3. (C) AFGHANISTAN: USD/P Edelman reported on his recent
trip to Afghanistan, where he saw enormous progress in the
counterinsurgency effort in RC-East, including in economic
and development assistance. The next big challenge is to
advance a similarly successful counterinsurgency effort in

the South and West of the country. He noted that the Afghan
people want the international community to stay; we need to
focus on strengthening the GOA by helping them provide better
services to the population. Edelman thanked his GOF
interlocutors for the promised fifth French Operational
Mentor and Liaison Team (OMLT) to help the Dutch in Uruzgan,
as well as for President Sarkozy's recent positive statements
on fulfilling NATO's mission in Afghanistan. Unfortunately,
Edelman added, this message of common threats and values
justifying our presence in Afghanistan is not pervasive
enough in Europe.

--------------
FUTURE DEPLOYMENTS TO AFGHANISTAN
--------------


4. (C) Elysee Deputy Military Advisor Noguier repeated
President Sarkozy,s recent statement to the U.S. Congress
that the French will stay in Afghanistan as long as needed,
although the GOF still believes that an exit strategy is
important. Americas Advisor Loras noted that the deployment
of French special forces was one future possibility, but that
the key short-term goal for the French was to shore up
consensus for a revisited Afghanistan strategy among European
partners. USD/P Edelman suggested France consider a PRT in
the Nimruz province, where Iranian infiltrators are currently
entering Afghanistan. Noguier acknowledged President
Sarkozy,s interest in a possible PRT, but said that France
must be very careful what messages it sends to its European
partners, as they don,t want to encourage merely replacing
departing European forces with French forces. At the MFA,
Carre noted that the Sarkozy administration is reviewing
President Chirac,s prior decision to stay in Kabul. The
emerging French priority is to develop a long-term political
and military vision with 3-4 year goals and a "success
strategy" focused on helping the Afghans do more for
themselves. Carre noted that a PRT is not an "easy sell" and
said that he favors the Quad format for discussions on troop
contributions. France supports counternarcotics efforts as
long as they do not take over the law and order
responsibilities of the GOA. At the MOD, Miraillet
emphasized that the GOF priority is to increase support with
other Europeans (most of whom "look at their boots" when the
question of Afghanistan is raised). On the specific issue of
deploying a PRT, he said, "it depends on what the President
decides." Other open questions include force generation and
finding the right partners such as NGOs. (NOTE: The proposed
visit of an interagency team to discuss PRTs could help
answer some of these questions. End note.)

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--------------
SHORING UP EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION
--------------


5. (C) All of the French officials in the meetings agreed on
the need for a public statement on NATO's strategy as part of
the March 2008 Bucharest summit. USD/P pointed out that
Secretary Gates had discussed with DefMins at Noorwijk the

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need for an alliance strategy to carry ISAF forward for the
next 3-5 years. All of USD/P Edelman,s interlocutors
emphasized the need to shore up European public commitment
for NATO action in Afghanistan. Carre said that initially,
Europeans understood the international community's engagement
in Afghanistan to be legitimate, but they mistakenly assumed
that it would be easy. The GOF also underestimated the
difficulty and duration of the mission, but it recognized
those factors sooner than its European allies.
Unfortunately, other countries, not used to fighting, have
"panicked" and must now develop a new argument for a long,
messy and complicated engagement in Afghanistan. Carre
emphasized that the GOA must eventually be self-sufficient,
and asked about our vision for long-term reconciliation in
Afghanistan. At the Elysee, Loras inquired about progress in
finding a new head for UNAMA. Miraillet also showed interest
in USG thoughts on candidates for the UNAMA job, noting that
he and Gerard Araud (MFA Political Director) had "spent a
night trying to come up with appropriate names and had not
been successful." Edelman agreed that finding the right
candidate was proving difficult.


6. (C) PAKISTAN: USD/P Edelman discussed Pakistan in the
context of his recent trip to Afghanistan, with a canceled
stop in Pakistan, saying that President Karzai is hoping
Musharraf can survive. Loras noted that Musharraf is still
the "best shield against enemies," but wondered what will
happen if he does not successfully reform and ensure his
political survival. There was consensus among French
interlocutors that even in the best possible outcome,
Musharraf will have lost status, while his actions against
Bhutto enhance her credibility. Edelman noted that we need
to help train and equip Pakistani forces to perform more
effective counterterrorism operations, which would also
increase their morale. Miraillet observed that the
deterioration of the Pakistani situation is not a good omen
for Afghanistan. The parties agreed that under Gen. Kidwai,
the Strategic Plans Division had a good grip on Pakistani
nuclear capabilities; however, Miraillet said he understood
that Kidwai had resigned two weeks ago and his deputy is
ineffective. (NOTE: We believe MOD to be misinformed on this
point).


7. (C) IRAN: USD/P Edelman noted that the exchange of
intelligence with Russia regarding the Iranian missile threat
was the most detailed intelligence exchange with the GOR
since the end of the World War. The U.S. provided a quick
overview of the evolution of Iranian missile capabilities.
The U.S. had not received a formal response to our proposals
in Moscow on MD. Carre noted that some European partners
such as Norway say proliferation occurs because of
insufficient disarmament progress, and also that France finds
the UK,s rhetoric "dangerous." He said that work in the P3
was helpful and that better public diplomacy was needed.


8. (C) MISSILE DEFENSE: At the Elysee, USD/P Edelman noted
that Morin had two questions at his meeting with Defense
Secretary Gates in Noordwijk: the missile defense threat and

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the technical parameters of the proposed system. He said
that Gen. Obering will be in Paris later this month (expected
November 28-30) to discuss how our governments might work
together more closely on missile defense, such as through the
creation of a NATO test bed and French industrial
participation in the development of missile defense
capabilities. Edelman cited progress in the ongoing
discussions with the Czech Republic and Poland. Carre stated
his belief that MD issues with Russia will be worked out.
While France agrees that considering how to deal with rising
missile threats is legitimate, the GOF is not ready to
recognize the proposed U.S. system as an Alliance project.
French officials know that the U.S. will be looking to NATO
to bless a missile defense system at Bucharest, but the U.S.
is moving too fast for NATO. Miraillet observed that the
picture for French defense expenditures is "dark, dark,
dark," saying that if President Sarkozy has to choose between
allocating 2-3 billion euros for either an aircraft carrier

PARIS 00004522 003 OF 003


or missile defense, he will probably choose the aircraft
carrier.


9. (C) RUSSIA: Carre said that France was unhappy with how
recent developments regarding the INF treaty were handled,
believing that Russia now has another "out." Edelman
confirmed that the U.S. never saw France (or the UK) as part
of INF and said that the GOR had wished to get out of INF for
years due, at least publicly, to proliferation threats on its
southern border. Carre volunteered an explanation for
Kislyak,s reluctance to schedule the next round of experts
discussions, saying that missile defense is "one piece of a
larger puzzle" of Russia,s relations with the West. He said
either Putin legitimately fears encirclement and incremental
loss of sovereignty, or is using that dynamic for domestic
political gain. The U.S. wants to show our willingness to
work with the Russians, while the Russian interest lies in
showing that cooperation with the West is bad across the
board. The CFE treaty is an innocent bystander in a bigger
quarrel about issues like Kosovo. Miraillet noted that it
was "very Russian" to postpone confronting the situation
because of uncertainty over the best course of action. He
echoed Carre,s professed unhappiness with the U.S.-Russian
joint statement on INF. Miraillet said the French were not
looking for apologies, just an analysis of the consequences.


10. (C) NATO and ESDP: At the Elysee, USD/P Edelman noted
that another question discussed in the recent Gates-Morin
meeting was ESDP and its implications for NATO. Loras said
the GOF would appreciate some high-level words of support
from the U.S. on increased European defense capabilities. At
the MOD, Miraillet downplayed the effect of increased
European defense capabilities on NATO. He noted that the EU
military staff is currently 90 officers, while 150 would
constitute a planning capacity. So, creation of an
"autonomous planning capacity" is really just the addition of
60 officers. He claimed that Berlin Plus would still be
requested for any large operation as the EU has no desire to
create a Euro-SHAPE. He described the agenda as pragmatic
and operational, citing Chad as an example of a situation
where SHAPE was not the best context for operational
civil-military planning. USD/P said this subject could
require further discussion.


11. (C) NEXT STEPS ON GEORGIA: Loras suggested there might
be parallels between the situation with Musharraf in Pakistan
and Saakashvili in Georgia, where a "good guy" does "bad
things" and the international community has to react. Loras
noted that European reservations on Georgia MAP have grown.
USD/P Edelman stressed that we have time to consider this
issue. The parties agreed the question would be decided at
some point before the Bucharest Summit.


12. (U) USD/P Edelman has cleared this message.


Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


STAPLETON