Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07PARIS3823
2007-09-13 15:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

KOSOVO: GOF NOTES PROGRESS ON INDEPENDENCE IN THE

Tags:  PREL PGOV UNSC YI DSR EU FR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6776
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHFR #3823/01 2561553
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 131553Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0118
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 5964
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1361
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003823 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC YI DSR EU FR
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: GOF NOTES PROGRESS ON INDEPENDENCE IN THE
EU


Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT FOR REASO
NS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003823

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC YI DSR EU FR
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: GOF NOTES PROGRESS ON INDEPENDENCE IN THE
EU


Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT FOR REASO
NS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: GOF officials told us on September 12 that
they are increasingly optimistic that the EU will come to a
consensus on the recognition of an independent Kosovo after
the December 10 Troika deadline. Edouard Beslay, the MFA's
DAS-equivalent for the Balkans, told us that only seven of
the 27 member states still oppose the EU's recognition of a
Kosovar UDI. Beslay was optimistic that despite some
remaining hurdles, the atmospherics for recognition were
improving. Isabelle Dumont, FM Kouchner's Balkans Counselor,
told us in a separate meeting that the Minister was feeling
increasingly confident about EU unity, particularly after a
very positive visit to Bucharest. Kouchner, in spite of a
very busy schedule, Dumont told us, was taking an active role
in lobbying for EU unity. She also noted that Kosovo is on
the FM's agenda for September 17/18 talks with Russian FM
Lavrov in Moscow.


2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED: While Beslay was optimistic about
EU unity on independence, he was relatively pessimistic about
the possibility of EU consensus on using UNSCR 1244 as the
legal basis for an EU mission in Kosovo. NATO's KFOR
mission, Beslay said, would likely have to continue as the
sole framework for an international military presence in
Kosovo. Both Dumont and Beslay noted that Kouchner remains
convinced that there can be a resolution between the parties,
but that he is unlikely to make any surprising moves without
first consulting Quint members. They both expect Kouchner
will be testing potential solutions with Quint allies over
the next several weeks, including with the Secretary. END
SUMMARY

MORE EU UNITY ON INDEPENDENCE
--------------


3. (C) In separate meetings on September 12, Edouard Beslay,
DAS-equivalent for the Balkans, and Isabelle Dumont, FM
Kouchner's Balkans Counselor, told us that they are
increasingly optimistic that the EU will come to a consensus
on the recognition of an independent Kosovo after the

December 10 Troika deadline. Beslay said that, as of the
September 8 Portugal Gymnich, only seven of the 27 member
states still oppose the EU's recognition of Kosovo's
independence. Dumont noted that despite a busy schedule,
Kouchner had made a strong effort to lobby for EU unity with
his EU counterparts. Kouchner's September 3 trip to
Bucharest, Dumont said, was very successful in convincing the
Romanians to follow the example of the Slovaks and agree not
to block consensus. Dumont described Kouchner's strategy as
en effort to secure EU unity "little by little." She also
pointed to Kouchner and Miliband's joint op-ed in The
Guardian (Sept. 6 edition) and Le Monde (Sept. 7 edition) as
having played a helpful role in setting the tone for private
discussions at the Gymnich.

EU POLICE & RULE OF LAW MISSION STILL IN JEOPARDY
-------------- --------------


4. (C) While Beslay was positive about the progress made
towards EU unity on the recognition of an independent Kosovo,
he was pessimistic about consensus on the legal basis for the
once envisioned ESDP-led police and rule of law mission.
Beslay said that arguments favoring UNSCR 1244 as a legal
foundation for the EU mission (in the event of EU recognition
of a Kosovar UDI) were not gaining traction with several
European capitals. He emphasized that many states including
Sweden and Denmark would only accept a new UNSCR as the basis
for the ESDP mission. The GOF, Beslay stressed, is very
concerned that NATO's KFOR will have no choice but to
continue its mission in Kosovo. This could present problems
if countries like Germany are forced to reconsider their
troop contributions. For the moment, Beslay said, the German
government believes it does not need a new mandate from the
parliament to continue the mission, but Beslay judged that
there are potential legal and political uncertainties for
Germany, and possibly other contributing nations. He also
noted that the lack of the envisaged ESDP-led mission in
Kosovo would not ease the path towards normalization of the
region.

THE TROIKA'S EFFORTS
--------------


5. (C) Dumont told us that FM Kouchner has confidence in
Ischinger, the Troika's EU representative, and was
particularly impressed by Ischinger's presentation at the
September 8 Gymnich. Ischinger, Dumont said, offered a

PARIS 00003823 002 OF 002


realistic analysis of the parties, willingness to negotiate
and began preparing EU members for the inevitable failure to
find a settlement. Both Beslay and Dumont stressed that
Kouchner remains disappointed that the Troika is not taking a
proactive role in suggesting possible solutions. Beslay told
us that the FM understood, however, that there is no desire
in Quint capitals to move in that direction. Dumont
continued to push for more Franco-American dialogue on
potential solutions, such as Dumont's "association of states"
concept.

FM KOUCHNER'S NEXT STEPS
--------------


6. (C) Dumont told us that Kosovo is on Kouchner's agenda for
his talks in Moscow September 17/18. She assured us that the
Minister would not make any proposals to Russian FM Lavrov,
but rather, would attempt to gauge Russia's overall
flexibility. The GOF has not completely given up on a new
UNSCR, Dumont added, and would continue to push the GOR.
Dumont and Beslay expect that Kouchner will be reaching out
to Quint FMs, ahead of the Contact Group Ministerial in New
York on September 28, in an effort to measure reaction to his
ideas for a settlement between the parties. Both Dumont and
Beslay said that while the GOF's fundamental position is
clear and that Kouchner sees no other future for Kosovo other
than eventual independence, the FM is also convinced that a
negotiated solution is possible and preferred. Dumont and
Beslay added, however, that they believe the FM understands
the need to have Quint support, and they do not expect
Kouchner to make any proposals without first consulting
allies.

SERBIAN POLITICS
--------------


7. (C) Serbian President Tadic's presidency is in jeopardy,
Beslay judged. With Kostunica refusing to allow for
presidential elections before the Troika's December 10
deadline, Tadic will be forced to run for reelection after
Kosovo's UDI -- in a potentially explosive atmosphere. While
Tadic has some options, Beslay said, none of them leave him
in a very strong position. Beslay told us that Sarkozy will
invite Tadic to Paris in October 2007 to discuss Kosovo,
Franco-Serbian relations, and Serbia's future in the EU.
Kostunica will likely seek an invitation as well, but the GOF
will not invite him prior to the December 10 deadline. With
Kostunica publicly discussing a possible break of diplomatic
relations with states that recognize Kosovo's UDI, the GOF
sees more utility in extending an invitation to Kostunica
after December 10. Beslay said that, in the meantime, the
GOF will continue to try and convince Serbian leaders of the
utility of moving forward on Serbia's future in the EU. In
doing so, the GOF will ask Serbian authorities to take a
measured response to Kosovo's UDI, instead of taking a
counterproductive position.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) While GOF analysis is relatively positive concerning
EU unity on recognizing an independent Kosovo, officials
remain seriously concerned about the EU police and rule of
law mission as well as about the future stability of Serbia
and the region. While the FM's advisors believe Kouchner
will consult with Quint allies before making any proposals,
they also noted that the Minister is quite frustrated and
often unpredictable. Given Kouchner's personal and very
emotional interest in the issue, and his penchant for
surprises, it is hard to judge whether and how he might seek
to personally intervene in negotiations ahead of the December
10 deadline.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


Stapleton